Transcript Weapons of Mass Desctruction

The Proliferation of Weapons
of Mass Destruction
Today’s
overview
• History of WMD Chemical, Bio, Nuke
• International Treaties
• Nuclear Weapons Today
• North Korea, Iraq, Pakistan
• Iran?
World War I
Chemical
• Non-living
• First use in Western World - Peloponnesian
War
• Rediscovered in Renaissance
Chemical - Modern uses
• Iraq-Iran War
• “Is military research hazardous to
veteran’s health?” (1994) US Senate
• Japan - Aum Shinrikyo
• Russian forces - Moscow theater
hostages
The Chemical Threat
Chemical Stockpiles
80000
70000
60000
3 1 ,0 0 0
50000
40000
1 6 ,3 1 7
Remaining Stoc kpile
D ec lared Stoc kpile
30000
4 0 ,0 0 0
20000
2 7 ,7 7 1
10000
0
106
A lbania
15,07585
I ndia
3
60
04
5
2 3 .6
L ibya
Rus s ia
South Korea
US
Units in Metric Tons
Source: Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons December 2006 implementation report,
Report of the OCPW on the Implementation of the Convention of the Prohibition of the Development,
Production, Stockpiling and Use of Chemical Weapons and on their Destruction in 2005.
Biological
• Living organisms
– Anthrax
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Cold War focused on retaliation
A Poor Nation’s WMD
Iraq
Nearly impossible to detect
Dual-use technologies
The Biological Threat
• H5N1/Bird Flu
• 1918 “Spanish Lady”
International Treaties
• 1899 Hague Conference
– Navy Captain Alfred Thayer Mahan - "the
inventiveness of Americans should not be
restricted in the development of new weapons."
• 1925 Geneva Protocol
– Bans chemical & biological weapons
– Nothing on production, storage, or transfer
• 1993 Chemical Weapons Convention
Chemical Weapons Convention
Bans:
* Developing, producing, acquiring, stockpiling, or retaining
chemical weapons.
* The direct or indirect transfer of chemical weapons.
* Chemical weapons use or military preparation for use.
* Assisting, encouraging, or inducing other states to engage in
CWC-prohibited activity.
* The use of riot control agents “as a method of warfare.”
–Didn’t ratify/sign: Bahamas, Congo, Dominican
Republic, Guinea-Bissau, Israel, Myanmar,
Angola, North Korea, Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon,
Somalia, Syria
Biological Weapons Treaties
• 1972 Biological Weapons Convention
– 158 states
– Bans creation & storage, but not usage
– Also applies to private parties
• Reviews in early 1990s, US says “not in
national interest” before 9/11.
– 2003: National mechanisms for security
– 2004: Enhancing international response to
disease/outbreaks
– 2004: strengthens detection & capabilities
– 2005: codes of conduct for scientists
Parties to Bio Weapons Treaty
(2007)
The Manhattan Project
• University of
Chicago
• Oakridge TN
(K-25, Y-12, S50) for U-235
• Hanford WA for
Plutonium
• Los Alamos NM
for Bomb
Assembly &
Test
The Manhattan Project
Separating U235 & U238
•Gaseous Diffusion
•Electromagnetic
Separation
•Thermal Diffusion
•Centrifuge Separation
YF12 Calutron Operation - Oakridge
Nuclear Weapons
• First known nuclear test was done
in New Mexico on July 16th 1945
• How many tests to date?
• US bombs Hiroshima & Nagasaki
• USSR tests weapon in 1949
• Hydrogen bomb
• Only countries to test weapons:
US, Russia, UK, France, India,
China, Pakistan, and North Korea
(possibly South Africa).
• Deterrence?
How to Build “the Bomb”
Fat Man
NPT
• 1963 Partial Test Ban Treaty
– Prohibits all above ground testing
• 1968 Non-Proliferation Treaty
– Except: India, Israel, Pakistan, North Korea
– Non-proflieration, Disarmament, Peaceful
Use
– IAEA
The Nuclear NonProliferation Treaty
1968
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•
Ratified by 188 states
Atoms for Peace
1. IAEA – dual mission of prevention &
promotion
2. The Fissile Bank - Failure
3. Goal of disarmament - Failure
•
The “Big Five” (haves) v. “have-nots”
Giving up nukes
• South America - Treaty of Tlatelolco
(‘67)
– Weapons-Free Zone
– Gave up programs: Argentina & Brazil
– Nobel Prizes to creators of treaty
• South Africa
– Relinquishes weapons after apartheid
Nuclear Stockpiles
Loose Nukes
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Cold War “Near Misses”
Deterrence and Balance of Power
The Former Soviet Union: Nunn/Luger
A “Dirty Bomb”
Military Utility of Nuclear Weapons
Regime Security
AQ Khan and the Black Market
Chemical & Biological
Weapons
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Easier to make
Easier to deploy
Harder to detect
Harder to fix blame
Can be used in an
asymmetrical
context
• Therefore, harder to
deter
WMD - Case Studies
North Korea, Iraq, Pakistan & Iran
Nuclear State of the World: N. Korea
• Withdrew from NNPT in 1985
• Clinton Agreement
• The North Korean
“Detonation” on Oct. 9th 2006
• Bush Agreement
The New Regime
North Korea (Kaplan)
N. Korea - Potential Disaster
• -Formidable Threat: 1.2 million soldiers, 100,000
elite forces, one of the world’s largest chemical
and biological weapons arsenals.
• -Deployment of weapons of mass destruction:
Believed to have around 10 nuclear warheads, the
likelihood of their use increases with greater
regime instability.
Potential Disaster (con’t)
• -Refugee Crisis: South Koreans and Chinese fear
an influx of refugees more than NK missiles.
• -“Mother of all relief operations”: The US could
be presented with the greatest stabilization effort
since WWII, and have to coordinate operations
with the Chinese PLA.
Potential Disaster (cont’d)
• -Regime Collapse: “collapse of the chain of
command of the KFR could be more dangerous
than the preservation of it, particularly when one
considers control over WMD.” -Colonel Maxwell,
who explains:
• a.) We might have to fight the remnants of the
military while conducting relief efforts.
• b.) The elites of the military structure may form
the basis of an insurgency in North Korea.
Kim Jung Il’s & Kim Jong Un’s
Objectives
• 1: Control the Military – particularly the elites
who can control the forces under them.
• 2: Split the alliance between South Korea and the
U.S. Support in SK for US intervention has
dwindled, and many may rally to nationalist calls
for the US not to interfere.
• 3: Manipulate the South Korean left.
• -by inflicting sufficient damage to press them to
seek a negotiated settlement.
• -provoke American attacks to cause them to place
blame on the US for the violence.
Today: NKorea orders UN
nuclear inspectors from plant
• VIENNA, Austria - N. Korea barred U.N. nuclear inspectors from its
main plutonium reprocessing plant Wednesday and within a week
plans to reactivate the facility that once provided the fissile material for
its atomic test explosion, a senior U.N. nuclear inspector said. The
North ordered the removal of the U.N. seals and surveillance
equipment from the Yongbyon plant, a sign it is making good on
threats to restart a nuclear program that allowed it to conduct a test
explosion two years ago. But the North's moves could be motivated by
strategy as well. It could use the year it would take to restart the
North's sole reprocessing plant to wrest further concessions from the
U.S. and other nations seeking to strip it of its atomic program. Coming
amid reports that that their leader suffered a stroke, the nuclear
reversal has fueled worries about a breakdown of international
attempts to coax the North out of its confrontational isolation with
most of the rest of the world.
• The accord hit a snag in mid-August when the U.S. refused to remove
North Korea from its list of states that sponsor terrorism until the North
accepts a plan to verify a declaration of its nuclear programs that it
submitted earlier.
Reunification
• Regional BOP
– Centers on China
– Threat to Japan?
• Cost to South Korea
• Kim Jong Un?
Iraq
Iraq
• Uses poison gas in Iran-Iraq War, also against Kurds
• Iraq in the 90’s.
1991: Gulf War ends, UN weapons inspectors begin
work in the Iraq.
1992-94: Iraq largely disarmed of WMD’s, while
retaining some research and development
capabilities
1995-96: Saddam’s remaining WMD programs wind
down. Period of weakened internal security and
political turmoil. High-level officials defect.
1998: Saddam kicks out weapons inspectors,
arousing international suspicion.
What we thought (Pollock
• Iraq continues WMD programs in
defiance of sanctions.
• Iraq will have a nuke w/i a decade or 1
year if it can acquire fissile materiel from
abroad.
• Iraq has invested heavily in missile tech
• Iraq has renewed production of
chemical agents and it researching
weaponization of bio agents
What we now know to be true!
• Iraq had preserved some
nuclear technology, but had
not restarted its nuclear
program.
• No chemical weapons or
bio weapons were
produced, but some
research was carried out
and 1 bio lab was
maintained clandestinely.
• Saddam was most
aggressive in pursuit of
ballistic missile technology.
Why we overestimated Iraq’s WMD status
-Throughout the 90’s, Iraqis made repeated attempts to hide WMD activities from
international inspectors.
-Although all weapons had been destroyed, Iraq had preserved production and R
& D capabilities.
-The defection of Saddam’s WMD program director along with other intelligence
finds revealed intentions to continue development, particularly involving missile
production. Iraqis also admitted the continued use of a large bio-weapons
factory.
-it seems that Saddam began to give up these intentions when sanctions were
continually being prolonged due to continual violations. However, hostility to
inspectors went on unabated.
• Overselling the case
• Correcting intelligence problems
Pakistan
AQ Khan “provided the country—single handedly, it
was widely believed—with an arsenal of nuclear
weapons (Langewiesche, 2005).”
AQ Khan
• Background
• Spread technology to:
– Iran, Libya, and North Korea
– Transfer to non-state actors?
• Pakistani & US Reaction
IRAN
Iranian
Nuclear
Sites
What will US/Israel do?