catastrophic ideologies

James J.F. Forest

Director of Terrorism Studies

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oint Threat Convergence Summit, 30 November 2006

The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not purport to reflect the position of the United States Military Academy, the Department of the Army, or the Department of Defense.

http://www.ctc.usma.edu

Importance of ideology

We face a hostile ideology - global in scope. . . ruthless in purpose and insidious in method. Unhappily, the danger it poses promises to be of indefinite duration.

Farewell Radio and Television Address to the American People by President Dwight D. Eisenhower, January 17, 1961

The political object is the goal , war is the means of reaching it, and the means can never be considered in isolation form their purposes. . . . War is not an independent phenomenon, but the continuation of politics by different means.

Karl Von Clausewitz

If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles.

Sun Tzu, The Art of War

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Nonviolent Protests

Ideologies of violence

A Spectrum of Ideologies

Threshold of catastrophic violence

Apocalyptic Terrorism

Groups that want to change the world, but reject the need for violent means Groups that want to change the world, and see a need for violent means Groups that want to destroy the world, for various reasons, possibly with WMD

Ideologies of violence



Ideologies offer a combination of intellectual and emotional appeal

 Violence is seen as necessary for achieving political, social, economic and/or religion change 

Terrorist ideologies vary:



Nationalists and Ethnic Separatists

(e.g., Anti-colonial groups, Chechens, PLO, Tamil Tigers/LTTE, Basques/ETA, Kurds/PKK)   

Left-wing

(e.g., radical Communists revolutionaries)

Right Wing

(often target race and ethnicity; Nazi, Aryan nations, etc.)

Religious

(e.g., Christian militias, Islamic jihadists, Shia revolutionaries, Zionists, etc.) 

Others: Anarchists, Environmentalists, Animal Rights Extremists Apocalyptic cults, etc.

Salafi-jihad ideology

http://www.ctc.usma.edu

Al Qaida and affiliated groups

Salafi-jihad ideology

• Islam is the one and only way of ruling mankind that is acceptable to God • Pluralism, the idea that no one has a monopoly on truth, is a falsehood, and liberal democracy (rule by man’s laws) is against God’s will .

• Muslims should use force to establish a more just society. (

Mawdudi

) • Jihad is the only source of internal empowerment and reform in the Muslim world. (

Qutb, Maqdisi, et al.

) • Muslims must resist the influences of Western that have poisoned mankind (

Qutb

) institutions and traditions • We have a global conflict siege between Islam and the West. Islam is under and only we (the Jihadis, the “pure” defenders of Islam) can lift it.

Salafi-jihad ideology

“The world is truly messed up, and only Islam is the answer - therefore we (Jihadis) must do all that is necessary to tear down the existing order and replace it with one built on Islam.” • We must mobilize the entire Muslim community to

join our global jihad

• We must overthrow corrupt, incompetent “apostate” regimes in the Middle East and replace them with governments that rule by Sharia law •

This requires defeating their powerful Western patrons (OBL, Zawahiri)

• Then we must re-establish the Islamic caliphate Muslim world to rule over the entire • The violence we inflict upon our own people, governments, and resources is 1) necessary, 2) religiously sanctioned, and 3) really the fault of the West, Israel, and apostate regimes.

Radicalization

3 Categories of Academic Theory

1.

Aspects of the Self

What influences an individual’s decision to embrace an ideology of violence and join a terrorist group?

2.

Social & Group Dynamics

What social and group dynamics influence terrorists’ actions?

3.

Conditions and Facilitators

- Why do ideologies resonate?

- What local circumstances allow terrorist groups to thrive and grow?

- What factors facilitate radicalization, and where?

http://www.ctc.usma.edu

Enablers of ideological resonance

Expectations Demands Grievances

•

+ Limited opportunities/power to bring about change without use of violence Frustration Humiliation Resentment Hopelessness Sense of Crisis Local political, economic and social conditions:

– Chaos/capacity ( weak/failing states, zones of competing governance ) – Socio-demographics (youth bulge, unemployment, lack of integration, etc.) – Authoritarian/repressive regimes; desire to address a power imbalance (AQ/Hizb as symbols of “resistance” - empowering the disenfranchised) – Ethnic/Socio-cultural fissures (Tamils, Chechens, Kurds, Basques) – Pre-existing belief in superiority of race, religion, tribe, etc.

– “Holy land” geographical issues, historical irredentist claims •

Global issues:

– Israeli-Palestinian conflict (incl. as symbol of universal Muslim oppression) – Perceptions of U.S. relations/bias/imperialism/double standards – Globalization/Westernization of cultural values “threatening our way of life”

Enablers of ideological resonance

Popular Support

The role of local and global enablers of resonance . . .

What social, political, religious or other factors could move this threshold toward greater acceptance of catastrophic terror?

Threshold of catastrophic violence

What factors might constrain acceptance of catastrophic terror?

Nonviolent Protests

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Apocalyptic Terrorism

constraints of ideological resonance

• • • • •

Socio-Political Constraints

Lack of acceptance about need for violence Failure to build ideology on pre-existing belief structures, cultural values, etc.

Behavior of group’s leader seen as too extreme (or perhaps not extreme enough?) Grievances not widely shared Popular support vs. potential to disgust potential supporters • • •

Religious Constraints

Fringe/overly radical interpretation of religious texts (e.g., cults like Aum Shinrikyo) Lack of acceptance of proposed religious justification for violence (al Qaida claims

strategic

justification, but do they truly have

theological

Violence prevents individual Muslims from conducting requires permission to kill Muslims?)

their own

jihad as Qu’ran

So what?

Our counterterrorism approach is insufficient CounterTerrorism Strategy: DIMEFIL D

iplomacy

I

ntelligence

M

ilitary

E

conomic

F

inancial

I

nformation

L

egal/Law Enforcement Countering a group’s

operational capabilities

and (to some degree) their will to conduct terror attacks Deals exclusively with ideology and context,

motivations behind violence

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So what?

Must do more to counter catastrophic ideology and enablers of resonance

CounterTerrorism Strategy: DIMEFIL D

iplomacy

I

ntelligence

M

ilitary

E

conomic

F

inancial

I

nformation

L

egal/Law Enforcement Focus on governance and security, but also need to shape the socio political environment to

constrain ideological resonance Reduce the appeal and legitimacy of Salafi-Jihad ideology

Know your Enemy . . .

Identify the ideology’s leaders and their core arguments Most influential living Jihadi thinkers

• Maqdisi • `Abd al-Qadir • Tartusi • Abu Qatada http://www.ctc.usma.edu

Battlespace of the mind

Discredit the Salafist-Jihadi ideology

• Salafi scholars, particularly Saudi clerics, are best positioned to discredit the movement.

• Jihadis lose credibility among mainstream Muslims by attacking women, children, the elderly; tarnishing the image of Islam among non-Muslims.

• When innocent Muslims are killed, they are robbed of their chance to conduct their own personal and spiritual jihad as called for in the Qu’ran.

• Jihadis lose support by creating political and social chaos in the Muslim world (

fitna

) and by damaging the sources of a nation’s wealth (such as tourism and oil). • Theirs is an extremely radical interpretation of an otherwise peaceful religion, and followers of this interpretation are more cultish than part of a religious movement. –

“ Qutbis” are followers of a man’s ideas, not the Koran

Discrediting the ideology

Popular Support/Political Considerations Nonviolent Protests Apocalyptic cults have limited ideological resonance; implications for strategic communications effort against al Qaida?

“AQ & others who follow the Salafi-Jihad ideology are members of a destructive cult (Qutbis) not a religious movement”

AQ1

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AQ2 Apocalyptic Terrorism

Counter the Enablers of Ideological resonance

Offer a compelling counterideology

• Is democracy an adequately compelling counterideology? If not, what is?

– The spread of liberal democracy will address some - but not a majority - of the underlying causes of terrorism – Our policy of democratization is seen by many Muslims as a man-made religion, the antithesis of Islam, thus our commitment to spreading it throughout the world may be adding fuel to their fire. Must use caution.

Strengthen constraints to ideologies of catastrophic terrorism

• Convince Jihadis that their methods are an ineffective and counterproductive means for social change – Because of the resilience of our society, economy, political system, etc., you are guaranteed not to achieve your objectives,

regardless of the frequency or magnitude of your catastrophic terror attacks.

Ideologies & resonance

Questions?

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Ideologies & resonance

[ backup slides ]

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Enablers of ideological resonance

Religious beliefs are a particularly powerful enabler of violent ideologies because they add a spiritual dimension and:

• • • • • • Explain the state of the world, particularly why believers are continuously persecuted, oppressed, discriminated against, etc..

Explain how and why violence may be condoned and necessary Are often

theologically supremacist

- meaning that all believers assume superiority over non-believers, who are not privy to the truth of the religion Are

exclusivist -

believers are a chosen people, or their territory is a holy land Are

absolutist -

it is not possible to be a half-hearted believer, and you are either totally within the system, or totally without it (and only the true believers are guaranteed salvation and victory, whereas the enemies and the unbelievers are condemned to some sort of eternal punishment or damnation, as well as death) Overall, religious ideologies embrace

polarizing values

in terms of right and wrong, good and evil, light and dark - values which can be co-opted by terrorist organizations to convert a "seeker" into a lethal killer http://www.ctc.usma.edu

WMD and ideology

Total Destruction Ideology may indicate likely preference for certain type of CBRN Biological Nuclear Radiological Chemical High-Yield Explosives Low Lethality Non-Lethal Weapons Spectrum of Violent Ideologies

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Apocalyptic Vision