Transcript Aum Shinrikyo’s Failed Strategic Subculture

Aum Shinrikyo’s Failed
Strategic Subculture
ALEX BURNS ([email protected])
SPS SYMPOSIUM, 29TH OCTOBER 2014
PHD CANDIDATE, SCHOOL OF POLITICS & SOCIAL INQUIRY, MONASH UNIVERSITY
2014 PhD Milestones

International Studies Association roundtable ‘Strategic Culture Is Dead; Long Live Strategic
Culture: New Directions in Research’, 27th March 2014, Toronto, Canada

Co-authored Contemporary Security Policy article ‘Australia’s Strategic Culture: Constraints
and Opportunities in Security Policy Making’ (with Deakin University’s Ben Eltham)

East-West Center in Washington DC invited presentation as part of ‘Asian Responses to
Perceptions of Asia-Pacific Strategic Cultures’, 16th October 2014 (delivered by Wooster
College’s Jeffrey S. Lantis)
Strategic Culture Defined: Jack Snyder

Formulated in 1977 by Jack Snyder for a RAND monograph on
Ford and Carter administration détente and the Soviet Union

“Individuals are socialized into a distinctly Soviet mode of
thinking . . . a set of general beliefs, attitudes and behavioral
patterns . . . that places them on the level of “culture” rather
than mere “policy” . . .” [emphasis added] (Snyder 1977: v)

“Culture is perpetuated not only by individuals but also by
organizations.” (Snyder 1977: 9).

“Strategic subculture: . . . a subsection of the broader strategic
community . . . Reasonably distinct beliefs and attitudes.”
(Snyder 1977: 10).
Aum Shinrikyo as Strategic Subculture

Decision elite



Aum’s senior leadership attempted to model Japanese continuity of government protocols
Initiatory / religious and entrepreneurial / shell company sub-systems / socialisation

Asahara’s deity yoga experience at age 30 in 1985 (Lifton: 20)

Asahara’s synthesis of Hindu Tantra, Tibetan Buddhist, Christian evangelical and Nostradamus /
New Age beliefs → Aum’s initiatory / religious doctrines, rituals, and practices

Front-companies used for R&D, weapons acquisition, and media / propaganda campaigns
Compartmentalised program to develop chemical / biological weapons


Greater emphasis after Aum’s political campaign failure in 1990 Japanese Diet elections
20th March 1995 sarin gas attack on Tokyo subway system

Program was relatively unsuccessful / over-hyped (Milton Leitenberg)

Program validated the rise of ‘new terrorism’ experts (Lisa Stampnitzky)
Research Methodology


Primary research methodology

Causation coding (Johnny Saldana 163-165) to identify decision pathway of Aum renunciates

Narrative / thematic coding (Catherine Kohler Riessman; Kathleen MacQueen; Leonard
Webster) for strategic subculture narrative arcs, symbols, and themes
Other theoretical / methodological perspectives considered

Counterfactuals (political scientist Richard Ned Lebow)

Genius and creativity research on leaders (psychologist Dean Keith Simonton)

Micro-sociology of violence / interaction rituals (sociologist Randall Collins)

Microfoundations of social science (philosopher Daniel Little)

Narrative therapy and social construction (psychotherapist Michael White)

Political psychology study of leadership (psychologist Jerrold M. Post)
Robert Jay Lifton

Psychohistorian and ‘thought reform’ theory (1961)

Psychobiographer of Aum founder Shoko Asahara



Lifton diagnoses functional megalomania in Asahara

Charismatic religious gurus (Anthony Storr)

Southeast Asian deity experiences (Frederick M. Smith)
Macrofoundations model of apocalyptic violence

Builds on Lifton’s earlier psychohistorical studies

Comparable to Walter Laqueur’s ‘new terrorism’ thesis

Branch Davidians at Waco; Timothy McVeigh and Oklahoma City
bombing; Heavens Gate; and Charles Manson / Jim Jones
Aum as a “phantom cell – a few hundred hidden activists
seeking to destroy the world” (Lifton 340)
Haruki Murakami

Japanese novelist influenced by United States historian Studs
Terkel – oral history approach to interviews

In 1996, Murakami interviewed 60 victims of the 1995 sarin gas
attack, and 8 current and mid-level / low-level Aum
renunciates


Personal, subjective experience of Shoko Asahara as guru

Microfoundations viewpoint on initiatory / religious sub-system

Reactions to discovery of Aum’s compartmentalised biological
and chemical weapons development program
Aum as a reflection of the darker undercurrents of
contemporary Japanese society

Aum renunciate experience with psychosocial pressures

Pre-World War II Manchuria analogy (Murakami 360-361)
Case Study Provisional Findings


Strategic subculture explanation emphasises new dynamics

Spillover effects from Christian evangelical and Occulture cultural transmission

Mirror-imaging (Robert Jervis) with United States: Asahara and Reagan Administration SDI
program’s interest in laser and other new weapons development systems

Links to Japanese military history (Unit 731) and Tibet’s fragmentation age (Jacob P. Dalton)
Murakami’s data suggests a microfoundations model of strategic culture


Individual subjective experience of strategic culture / subcultures
Aum Shinrikyo failed as a strategic subculture

Most of the decision elite / senior leadership were jailed after 1995 Tokyo sarin gas attack

Lack of organisational coherence over time → successors Aleph and Hikari no Wa (Erica Baffelli)

Asahara’s personal synthesis unravelled and missed counterfactual opportunities
Discussion