Transcript Document

Regional Communities Driving Regional
Impact Assessments
Jo Mummery
Head
Land Management and Science Branch
Presentation to the
Second International Conference on Climate Impacts Assessments
30th June 2004
Needs for Adaptable Regional
Communities
Knowledge
 What is the likely nature and scale
of change?
 Regional projections- probabilities,
appropriate resolution
 Climate variability and extreme
events
 Infrastructure and community
consequences
 Adaptive capacity
 Adaptation options
Tools
 Risk management
 Cost/benefit
 Region modelling
 Integrated assessments
Leadership
 Leadership and involvement at all
levels- gov’ts, industry, community
groups, research etc
 Training, building capacity
How are we currently placed?
•Knowledge of likely change
- Adequate national projections
Temperature
Rainfall
Source: CSIRO 2001
Science knowledge needs
– Resolution - scale for decision making
– Probabilistic analysis
– Extreme events analysis
• Likely to become more frequent and severe
• Huge economic impact - 2002/3 drought: $6.6 billion &
Gov’t assistance of $1.2 billion
• Improved projections of extreme events- observations,
specialised and high resolution modelling
– Variability and change links
Current understanding of
adaptation needs & options
• Adaptation needs & options explored:
– Water resources (learning from real 25% reduction in
rainfall, 40% reduction in streamflow in sw WA)
– Analysis of agricultural options (learning from variability)
– Land use suitability
– Biodiversity and climate change
– Some analysis of transport infrastructure
– Risk assessment for human health
• Tools (socio-economic analysis tools lacking)
– Sectoral costs of climate change impacts
• Overall- there is still a long way to go!
The way forward
• New Climate Change Adaptation Programme
• Building national capacity
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Improving the science/research base
Assessing the costs of impacts/cost-benefit tools
Communication and engagement
Integrated assessment
Developing impact and adaptation tools
• Partnerships with States and industry to address national
priorities (TAR, national risk assessment, consultation) – water,
agriculture, coastal cities and infrastructure, key regions (MDB,
sw WA, CGBR)
Case study 1: Cairns - Great Barrier Reef region
(CGBR) integrated scoping study
Photos courtesy of the Great Barrier
Reef Marine Park Authority
The Cairns-GBR Region
Left photo: courtesy of
National Oceans Office
The CGBR region
• Extremely significant natural values (2 World Heritage
Areas)
• Regional economy relies heavily on tourism and agriculture
• Population around 250,000
• Gross regional product: $4.4 billion pa
Tourism worth approx. $1 billion pa
• Vulnerable to increased ocean & atmospheric temperatures,
sea level rise, extreme events (cyclones, storm surges)
• Vulnerability identified in TAR
Overall design - broad
stakeholder base the key
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Scoping study for full assessment – benefit transfer
opportunities
150 stakeholder invited to workshops supported by expert
presentations. Stakeholders split into 3 groups
Workshops steps:
1.
2.
3.
4.
Stakeholders identify current climate issues & key regional
sensitivities supported by expert presentations
Stakeholders determine non-climate stresses & climate change impacts
on region, industries & communities
Stakeholders identify possible actions to deal with impacts, including
barriers & synergies
Stakeholders prioritise issues & actions for the region
Step 1: climate dependencies
• Natural ecosystem sustainability susceptible to temp, rf and extreme events
• Tourism – temp extremes in summer (visitor number decline during coral
bleaching periods)
• Human health – vector borne diseases climate links (certain mosquitoes more
difficult to control with increasing temp and rf)
• Urban infrastructure – housing design and water provision susceptible to
extreme events
• Agriculture – variability primary productivity driver. Control of pests and
weeds influenced by temp, rf. Fisheries – cyclones destroy habitat
• Water resources – irrigation and environmental flows dependent on variations
in rf and evaporation, extreme events relevant
• Overall – no surprises, but immensely valuable for stakeholders. Provided
solid information base for consideration of climate change and impacts
Step 2: climate change impacts
• Stakeholders developed matrices linking sector issues to
climate attributes
• Agriculture (sugar, horticulture, cattle/beef)
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Strongly climate dependent with varying impacts between industries
Potential short-term  in plant production (CO2-fertilisation)
More than offset by long-term  moisture availability
Changes in pest/weed incidence bring greater stress and increase costs
Heat stress on livestock – reduced milk yield (4-9%)
Reduced pasture production (10-30% by 2070)
Natural systems and biodiversity
Major issue – magnitude of biodiversity loss, limited reversibility
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Sea level rise impact on coastal ecosystems (e.g. mangroves)
Reduced moisture for wet tropical rainforests
Endemic vertebrates reduced distribution by 60% with 1°C 
Weed spread to upland areas (links to other stresses)
Step 2: climate change impacts ctd
• Water resources
– Combination of population growth and increases in temp
and evaporation will increase demand
– Possible reduced water quality through increased frequency
of toxic algal blooms. Might be offset by more extreme
rainfall events
– Extreme rainfall events will increase amount of suspended
sediment, negative flow-on effects on reef
– Illustrates complexity of stakeholder identified interactions
– Challenges to stormwater infrastructure with extreme rainfall
events
– Coastal regions, GBR
•  intense cyclones and storm surges: significant damage to infrastructure
and essential services (Figure below- storm surge impact on Cairns)
• Ocean warming, sea level rise, coral bleaching
Current 1-in-100 year storm surge extent
1-in-100 year storm surge extent under 2xCO2
conditions
Step 3: Possible adaptation actions
• Adaptation options were identified by stakeholders eg
– Agriculture and water
• Cropping and grazing:  water efficiency, species selection and modify
management cycles
– Pests, diseases & health
• Design appropriate weed and pest controls (area targeted, improved
detection), improve extreme weather early warning systems
– Natural systems and GBR
• Lower other environmental stresses to improve adaptive capacity
• Mangrove buffer to facilitate inland retreat (other benefits)
– Coastal and urban regions
• Rehabilitate erosion prone coastal areas
• New building standards for more extreme weather, development planning
• Stormwater design
Step 4: Prioritise issues & actions
for the region
• Stakeholder were asked to prioritise impact importance
and adaptation options
- Priority 1: Water quality and availability
– Priority 2: The Great Barrier Reef and tourism
– Priority 3: Agriculture
– Etc
• Regional economic issues drove priority setting
• Addressing knowledge gaps a cross-cutting priority,
particularly socio-economic impacts, higher resolution
scenarios, and integrated analyses
Some challenges and research
priorities revealed from study
• Regional projections - spatially understand vulnerability and
risk at temporal and spatial scales needed for decision-making
• Limited understanding of links between biophysical & socioeconomic impacts - integrated assessments for key sectors
needed, and tools to assess multiple impacts at regional scale
• Regional modelling of land use and socio-economic change –
needed to examine trade-offs between different land uses and
sectors under different scenarios
• Need to incorporate climate change in sectoral models
• Enhanced monitoring needed eg sea level rise
Lessons and where to from here
• Need to formalise adaptation – better links between Govts and
industry, and removal of inconsistent policies
• Utilising communication networks – options, what works
• Adaptation strategies require engagement of regional authority,
community and industry
– Local solutions to local problems
• AGO is investigating conducting a full integrated assessment of
the region in collaboration with State Governments and research
agencies
• Potential benefit transfer of methods to other regions
Case Study 2: planning for climate change
Planning for climate change
• The context
– Regional and Local Government planners have a key role in
helping communities adapt to climate change and planning
decisions need to consider climate change
– Many difficult and potentially costly impacts
• The project
– The PIA: Sustainable Regional and Urban Communities
Adapting to Climate Change
Regional and urban communities
adapting to climate change
• Four-stage project aimed at preparing our communities
and industries for the impacts associated with climate
change through delivery of toolkit for planners
• Project has been driven and undertaken by a
professional body (the Planning Institute of Australia)
concerned about climate change impacts
• Sponsored by diverse interest groups (Govts,
Insurance Australia Group, City Councils etc)
•Into stage 3 and already award winning process!
The stages
1. Scoping study- consultation to establish the
project need
2. Issues paper- establishing the basis for
engagement of planners
3. Developing the tools for planners and
communities
4. Refining tools and capacity building through
regional participation
Stage 1- establishing the need
• Scoping study to identify the current state of
knowledge in the planning profession
• Extensive stakeholder consultation
– 50 participants were interviewed spanning
government and consultant planners plus insurance
representatives
Stage 1: results
Importance of climate change for
planners' professional development
0%
10%
20%
26%
no relevance
some relevance
relevant to core area
important
critically important
44%
Stage 1: results
• No current tools, but suggestions included
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Risk management framework
Land capability
Vulnerability assessment
Community consultation
• Regional level most appropriate for climate change
• Forecasts are seen as too uncertain and lack political
and community support
• There is an expectation nationally and internationally
that planning will do 'something'.
(PIA 2002)
Stage 2: establishing the basis
• A series of issues papers looking at planning for
climate change adaptation
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Climate science
Natural environment
Built environment
Socio-legal considerations
Peer reviewed at a
workshop
Stage 2 results - hot off the press!
Stage 2 results - ctd
• Planners need to be: proactive in advising govts/statutory
agencies on risks and in working with communities on
adaptation options
• Potential legal liability – duty of care to the community
(compensation claims, “do nothing” could lead to a claim
of negligence)
• Planning measures to limit risk important – need to adopt
a precautionary approach
• Awareness of potential implications for insurance
premiums or availability (eg a 25% increase in peak wind gusts can
generate a 6.5 fold increase in building claims, impacting on insurance
industry’s underwriting capacity in vulnerable regions) (PIA 2002)
Planning considerations
Land use
(PIA 2002)
Stage 3: establishing the tools
• Based on needs identified by stakeholders, planning
tools to be developed to help planners and
communities address adaptation to climate change.
• A complex framework spanning regional land use
planning, natural resource management planning, local
government planning schemes and laws
• Systematic tools based on risk assessment that relate to
infrastructure planning, development assessment
guidelines, issues for local legislation, regional
strategies
Stage 4: fine tuning and capacity
building
• Issues papers and tools to be workshopped
through Planning Institute
• Professional development to be driven by
industry association
• Tool kit to be web based and updated
Lessons and where to from here
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Stages 3 and 4 beckons…..
Increased awareness and regional capacity
Project framework is applicable to other regions
Stakeholder involvement and ownership are the
keys to success
Conclusion
• Stakeholder involvement is essential in effective
approaches to impact assessment and adaptation
– Adaptation options and actions site specific and evolve over
time. Science enhanced by local knowledge
– Involvement processes take time and resources
• Aspects of climate changesite specific but assessment
methods benefit transfer
• Further assessments and tools to come from National
Climate Change Adaptation Program
• Challenge to science community to support community
processes through targeted and relevant information
Further information
• Impacts and adaptation in Australia
• www.greenhouse.gov.au – links to science and
impacts
• Case studies
– Cairns/Great Barrier Reef
• www.greenhouse.gov.au - links to science and
impacts
• report to be posted shortly
– Planning Institute of Australia
• http://www.planning.org.au/qld/climatechange/