ASTM E60 Committee on Sustainability Workshop on LCA: Methodology, Current Development, and Application in Standards LCA Methodology

Jane C. Bare

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Office of Research and Development

National Risk Management Research Laboratory, Sustainable Technology Division, Systems Analysis Branch

April 23, 2020

Purposes of an LCA

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• Product Comparison – Within company – Between companies (Comparative Assertion) • Baseline Comparison – e.g., 2008 model vs 2009 model • Identify target areas for improvement – Largest source of global climate change impacts • Standards • Goal Setting • Marketing Tool • Meet Consumer Requests

End of Life Management Transportation Transportation Recycle / Reuse Raw Material Acquisition Transportation

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Use / Maintenance Transportation Production

Inputs from nature LCA includes inputs from nature & multimedia outputs to nature at all life cycle stages Inputs from nature Outputs to nature Outputs to nature Inputs from nature Inputs from nature Outputs to nature

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Outputs to nature Outputs to nature Simplistic Life Cycle of Ethanol Gasoline Blend

4 Framework adapted from ISO 14040 series

Goal and Scope Definition Inventory Analysis (LCI) Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) Selection and Definition of Impact Categories Assignment of LCI results (Classification) Modeling category indicators (Characterization) Normalization (Optional) Weighting Across Impact Categories (Optional) Interpretation • ID of Significant Issues • Quality Assessment • Sensitivity Analysis • Appraisal • Conclusions • Recommendation • Reporting

Goal and Scope Definition

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• Consider the decisions being supported.

• Consider the stakeholders involved.

• Select a functional unit.

• Determine the boundaries in the LCA.

• Determine the stages for LCA.

• Determine the impact categories included in analysis.

• Determine the sources of data for inventory.

• Consider level of uncertainty analysis.

• Consider how trade-offs will be addressed.

• Consider options for improvement.

Life Cycle Inventory

• Include all inputs from nature (i.e, natural resources modified or consumed) and all outputs to nature (e.g., multimedia emissions).

• Consider goal and scope in determining the quality (e.g., site specificity) of the data necessary.

• Consider applicability of alternative data sources when data is not readily available.

• Make data sources, quality, uncertainty and variability transparent.

• Make modeling assumptions transparent (e.g., allocation methods).

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• Consider running sensitivity analysis for major assumptions (e.g., allocation, unknown inventory data).

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LCI can consume significant time & effort

• Consider hierarchy of data sources based on data quality and applicability.

• Sources may include: – Site specific proprietary company data.

– Practitioners’ LCA databases.

– National LCA databases.

– Public data available from other sources (e.g., TRI).

Life Cycle Inventory Spreadsheets

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VOCs CARBON MONOXIDE (CO) NITROGEN OXIDES (NOx) PM10 SULFUR OXIDES (SOx) Methane NITROUS OXIDE (N2O) CARBON DIOXIDE VOCs VOCs 1 2 4-TRIMETHYLBENZENE 1 2-DIBROMOETHANE 1 2-DICHLOROETHANE 1 3-BUTADIENE 2,2,4-TRIMETHYL PENTANE 2,2,5-TRIMETHYL HEXANE 2 3 3-tm-Pentane 2,3,4-TRIMETHYL PENTANE 2,3-Dimethyl butane 2-Methyl-2-butene 2-Methyl hexane 2-Methyl pentane 3-Methyl hexane air air air air air air air air air air air air air air air air air air air air air air air 0.00E+00 7.47E-04 4.52E-03 9.40E-04 9.55E-03 2.66E-03 9.22E-06 1.21E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 9.40E-03 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 3.45E-02 1.08E-02 1.72E-02 1.71E-02 1.08E-02 7.12E-03 1.21E-02 2.20E-02 1.27E-02 lb lb lb lb lb lb lb lb lb lb lb lb lb lb lb lb lb lb lb lb lb lb lb 1.19E+01 2.99E+02 2.21E+01 6.72E-01 2.20E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 1.20E+04 1.39E+01 0.00E+00 1.20E-02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 8.36E-02 8.03E-01 1.38E-02 2.19E-02 2.18E-02 1.38E-02 9.08E-03 1.55E-02 2.80E-02 1.62E-02 lb lb lb lb lb lb lb lb lb lb lb lb lb lb lb lb lb lb lb lb lb lb lb

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Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) Selection and Definition of Impact Categories Assignment of LCI results (Classification) Modeling category indicators (Characterization) Normalization (Optional) Weighting Across Impact Categories (Optional)

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Inventory of Stressors Chemical Emissions Fossil Fuel Use Land Use Water Use Impact Categories Ozone Depletion Global Warming Acidification Eutrophication Smog Formation Human Health Criteria Cancer Noncancer Ecotoxicity Fossil Fuel Use Land Use Water Use Tool for the Reduction and Assessment of Chemical and other environmental Impacts Characterization …….

Ozone Depletion Global Warming Eutrophication 300 200 100 0 800 700 600 500 400 Product A Product B Product C End of Life Use Processing Transportation to Manufacturing Site Raw Material Acquisition (e.g., Eutrophication)

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Best Decision Points

CFC-11 Halon-1211 HCFC-22 CFC-11 Other

Stressors

Chemical Reaction Releases Cl- & Br- which destroy ozone

MIDPOINT

measures ozone depletion potential (ODP) Less ozone allows increased UV-B radiation which leads to the following ENDPOINTS skin cancer crop impacts impacts on plants & animals

Other Known and Unknown Endpoints

impacts on plastics cataracts

DAMAGE

indicator may aggregate all calculated endpoint effects into single unit (e.g., $s)

Endpoint effects not calculated are lost

Midpoint analysis (e.g., ODP, GWP) for ozone depletion, global warming, acidification, eutrophication, and smog formation allows maximum comprehensiveness & scientific defensibility, and minimal value choices & modeling assumptions.

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Inventory of Stressors Chemical Emissions Fossil Fuel Use Land Use Water Use Impact Categories Ozone Depletion Global Warming Acidification Eutrophication Smog Formation Human Health Criteria Cancer Noncancer Ecotoxicity Fossil Fuel Use Land Use Water Use Tool for the Reduction and Assessment of Chemical and other environmental Impacts Characterization (e.g., Eutrophication) 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 …….

0 Product A Product B Ozone Depletion Global Warming Product C Eutrophication 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Product A Product B Product C End of Life Use Processing Transportation to Manufacturing Site Raw Material Acquisition End of Life Use Processing Transportation to Manufacturing Site Raw Material Acquisition

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Human Health Modeling

• CalTOX was recognized as the most sophisticated model for risk assessment while TRACI was being developed.

• Original TRACI based on CalTOX work which uses EPA’s Risk Assessment Guidelines and Human Exposure Factor Handbook.

• Provided 23 human exposure pathways with multimedia modeling and Crystal Ball link to allow parameter uncertainty and variability analysis.

Parameter Uncertainty & Variability Analysis

Parameter variability:

natural variation of input parameters Parameter 1 14 Parameter 2 Parameter 3 Model Output

Parameter uncertainty:

errors random, systematic, and measurement

Parameter Uncertainty & Variability Analysis From: Hertwich, E., et al, Parameter uncertainty and variability in evaluative fate and exposure models. Risk Analysis, 1999. 19

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Probabilistic research within CALTOX showed that for the majority of the TRI substances chemical data (e.g., toxicity and half life) had the biggest impact on data variability/uncertainty.

This research also supported the theory that toxicity characterization factors could be global.

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Resource Depletion Categories

• Although currently not as advanced as many of the traditional pollutant categories.

• Resource depletion issues can include: – Fossil fuel depletion – Land use – Water use – Other abiotic resources (minerals) – Other biotic resources (fishing).

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Inventory of Stressors Chemical Emissions Fossil Fuel Use Land Use Water Use Impact Categories Ozone Depletion Global Warming Acidification Eutrophication Smog Formation Human Health Criteria Cancer Noncancer Ecotoxicity Fossil Fuel Use Land Use Water Use Tool for the Reduction and Assessment of Chemical and other environmental Impacts Characterization (e.g., Eutrophication) 300 200 100 0 800 700 600 500 400 Product A Product B Product C …….

Ozone Depletion Global Warming Eutrophication 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Product A Product B Product C End of Life Use Processing Transportation to Manufacturing Site Raw Material Acquisition End of Life Use Processing Transportation to Manufacturing Site Raw Material Acquisition

BEES 4.0

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Information and access to BEES can be found at: http://www.bfrl.nist.gov/oae/software/bees/

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NIST Weighting Workshop

• • Categorization of stakeholders did matter.

From Gloria, et al,

Life cycle impact assessment weights to support environmentally preferable purchasing in the United States.

Environmental Science & Technology, 2007. 41(21).

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US GBC’s LEED 2009 uses TRACI

• • • “LEED 2009 uses US EPA’s TRACI… because they represent a comprehensive, currently available complement to LEED which is appropriate for the North American building market.” “Layered on top of the TRACI environmental impact categories are weightings devised under the auspices of NIST…” “The workbook tool is a credit weighting software program…to assign weights to individual LEED credits. The final weights are expressed as a percentage and each credit point is fed into a typical LEED scorecard to arrive at a sum total of 100 pts for all the activity groups….certified, silver, gold or platinum require a 40%, 50%, 60%, or 80% achievement of pts.”

Life Cycle Interpretation

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• Data Quality / Uncertainty / Sensitivity Analysis • Analysis of tradeoffs.

• Initiate an iterative approach focusing on obtaining higher quality data where it matters most.

• Can help identify largest areas of impact which may provide greatest opportunities for improvement.

• Provide recommendations.

• Conclusions and reporting.

LCA Issues / Limitations

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• Goal and scoping is important, but often does not get the focus it deserves since it is early in the process.

• Inventory can be time and resource intensive.

• Need to be comprehensive in inventory and impact assessment, but data and models are sometimes not available, and consensus does not exist for all models.

• Tradeoffs often exist and single scores always involve value choices and assumptions.

• LCAs should be transparent including data quality.

• Other factors are often involved in decision making.

LCA Benefits

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• More comprehensive analysis can assist in better complex decision making.

• Quantification of impacts can put various contributors into context.

• Comprehensive view avoids unknowingly shifting impacts to: – Other impact categories – Other environmental media (air, water, soil) – Other life cycle stages – Other geographic regions.

• Life cycle tools are making LCA’s easier and cheaper to conduct.