Chapter 10

Transcript Chapter 10

ECONOMICS 5e

Michael Parkin

CHAPTER

11 Economic Growth

Chapter 28 in Economics

Learning Objectives

• Describe the long-term growth trends in the United States and other countries and regions • Identify the main sources of long-term real GDP growth • Explain the productivity growth slowdown in the United States during the 1970s Copyright © 2000 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.

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Learning Objectives (cont.)

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Learning Objectives

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Long-Term Growth Trends

We are interested in long-term growth primarily because it brings rising incomes

per person.

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A Hundred Years of Economic Growth in the United States

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Long-Term Growth Trends

Real GDP Growth in the World Economy • The United States has the highest real GDP per person, and Canada has the second highest • Europe’s Big 4 (France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom) were the third richest countries until 1985 when Japan caught up to them.

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Learning Objectives (cont.)

• Explain the rapid economic growth rates being achieved in East Asia • Explain the theories of economic growth • Describe the policies that might be used to speed up economic growth Copyright © 2000 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.

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Economic Growth Around the World: Catch-Up or Not?

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Economic Growth Around the World: Catch-Up or Not?

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Catch-Up Asia

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Learning Objectives

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The Causes of Economic Growth: A First Look

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The Causes of Economic Growth: A First Look

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The Causes of Economic Growth: A First Look

Saving and Investment in New Capital New capital increases the capital per worker and increases real GDP per hour of labor — labor productivity.

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The Causes of Economic Growth: A First Look

Investment in Human Capital The accumulated skill and knowledge of human beings is the most fundamental source of economic growth.

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The Causes of Economic Growth: A First Look

Discovery of New Technologies The discovery and the application of new technologies and new goods has increased labor productivity tremendously.

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Learning Objectives

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Growth Accounting

The quantity of real GDP supplied

(Y)

depends on three factors: 1) The quantity of labor

(N)

2) The quantity of capital

(K)

3) The state of technology

(T)

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Growth Accounting

Growth accounting is used to calculate how much real GDP growth results from growth of labor and capital and how much is attributable to technological change.

A key tool is the aggregate production function:

Y = F(N,K,T)

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Growth Accounting

Labor Productivity • Labor productivity is real GDP per hour of work.

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Real GDP per Hour of Work

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Growth Accounting

Growth accounting divides growth into two components.

1) Growth in capital per hour of labor 2) Technological change Includes everything that contributes to labor productivity growth that is not included in growth in capital per hour Copyright © 2000 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.

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Growth Accounting

The Productivity Function A relationship that shows how real GDP per hour of labor changes as the amount of capital per hour of labor changes with a given state of technology.

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Growth Accounting

The Productivity Function The shape of the productivity function reflects the law of diminishing returns.

The law of diminishing returns states that as the quantity of one input increases with the quantities of all other inputs remaining the same, output increases but by ever smaller increments.

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How Productivity Grows

Capital per hour of work (1992 dollars)

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Growth Accounting

The Productivity Function • Applying the law of diminishing returns to capital, the law states that if a given number of hours of labor use more capital, the

additional

output that results from the

additional

capital gets smaller as the amount of capital increases.

• The one third rule explains how much less.

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Growth Accounting

The One Third Rule • Robert Solow of MIT discovered that on average, with no change in technology, a 1 percent increase in capital per hour of labor brings a

one third of a 1 percent

increase in real GDP per hour of labor.

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Growth Accounting

Accounting for the Productivity Growth Slowdown and Speedup We can use the one third rule to study U.S. productivity growth and the productivity growth slowdown.

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Growth Accounting

Accounting for the Productivity Growth Slowdown and Speedup 1960 to 1973 • The economy grew due to rapid technological changes.

• • • Real GDP per hour expanded by 39 percent.

Capital per hour increased by 24 percent.

With no change in technology, the economy would have expanded by only 8 percent (1/3 of 24 percent).

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Growth Accounting

Accounting for the Productivity Growth Slowdown and Speedup 1973 to 1983 • Predominantly, the reason for the productivity growth slowdown can be attributed to a decline in the rate of technological change.

• • • Real GDP per hour expanded by 8 percent. Capital per hour increased by 15 percent.

With no change in technology, the economy would have expanded by 5 percent (1/3 of 15 percent).

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Growth Accounting

Accounting for the Productivity Growth Slowdown and Speedup 1983 to 1995 • The economy grew due to more rapid technological change.

• • • Real GDP per hour expanded by 18.5 percent.

Capital per hour increased by 11 percent.

With no change in technology, the economy would have expanded by only 3.7 percent (1/3 of 11 percent).

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Growth Accounting and the Productivity Growth Slowdown

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Growth Accounting

Technological Change During the Productivity Growth Slowdown Technology was directed toward coping with two major problems.

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Growth Accounting

Technological Change During the Productivity Growth Slowdown Energy Price Shocks • • 1973–1974 and 1979—1980 Fuel inefficient methods of transportation and production were scrapped at an increased rate • Technological change focused on saving energy rather than enhancing productivity Copyright © 2000 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.

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Growth Accounting

Technological Change During the Productivity Growth Slowdown The Environment • The 1970s saw an expansion of laws and resources devoted to protecting the environment and improving the quality of the workplace.

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Growth Accounting

Achieving Faster Growth • • • • • Stimulate Saving Stimulate high-technology industries Target high-technology industries Encourage international trade Improve the quality of education Copyright © 2000 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.

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Learning Objectives (cont.)

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Growth Theory

Three theories that attempt to explain what causes economic growth and makes growth rates vary are: 1) Classical Growth Theory 2) Neoclassical Growth Theory 3) New Growth Theory Copyright © 2000 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.

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Growth Theory

Classical Growth Theory • The view that real GDP growth is temporary and that when real GDP per person rises above the subsistence level a population explosion eventually brings real GDP per person back to the subsistence level.

• Thomas Malthus is given most of the credit for the theory, hence the name

Malthusian theory.

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Growth Theory

Classical Growth Theory The Basic Idea The world of 1776: Real GDP has increased and the real wage rate has increased. But the classical economists believe that this new situation can’t last because it will induce a population explosion.

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Growth Theory

Classical Growth Theory The modern theory of population growth explains that the population growth is influenced by economic factors.

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Growth Theory

Modern Theory of Population Growth • If there is any relationship between income levels and population growth, it is the opposite of that feared by the classical economists.

• • In reality, the relationship is weak.

The relation is so weak that it can be said that the rate of population growth is virtually independent of the rate of economic growth.

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Growth Theory

Classical Growth Theory Subsistence real wage rate - to explain the high rate of population growth • The subsistence real wage rate is the minimum real wage rate needed to maintain life.

• If the actual real wage rate is less than the subsistence real wage rate, some people cannot survive and the population decreases.

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Growth Begins

3 2 1 0 1 LS 0 New technologies and more capital increase the productivity of labor 2

LD 1 LD 0 4 5 6 Labor (millions)

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A Dismal Outcome

1 LS 0 LD 1 LS 2 3 4 5 6 Labor (millions) 1

Subsistence real wage rate

When the real wage rate exceeds the subsistence level, the population increases

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Growth Theory

Neoclassical Growth Theory Holds that real GDP per person grows because technological change induces saving and investment that makes capital per person grow.

The Neoclassical Economics of Population Growth: • The population explosion of eighteenth century Europe that created the classical theory of population eventually ended.

• Made classical theory less relevant.

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Growth Theory

Neoclassical Growth Theory Technological change • The rate of technological change influences the rate of economic growth, but economic growth does not influence the pace of technological change.

• Technological change results from chance.

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Growth Theory

Neoclassical Growth Theory The Basic Idea • These technological advances bring new profit opportunities.

• Businesses expand and new businesses are created to exploit the newly profitable technologies.

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Growth Theory

Neoclassical Growth Theory The Basic Idea (cont.) • • Investment and savings increase.

The economy enjoys new levels of prosperity and growth.

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Growth Theory

Neoclassical Growth Theory The Basic Idea (cont.) • According to the neoclassical growth theory, the prosperity will persist because there is no classical population growth induced to lower wages.

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Growth Theory

Neoclassical Growth Theory The Basic Idea (cont.) Growth will stop if technology stops advancing for two reasons: • high profit rates • diminishing returns to capital Copyright © 2000 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.

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Growth Theory

Neoclassical Growth Theory Target Rate and Long-Run Saving • If real the real interest rate exceeds the target rate, the supply of capital increases.

• If the real interest rate is less than the target rate, the supply of capital decreases.

• If the real interest rate is equal to the target rate, the supply of capital is constant.

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Growth Theory

Neoclassical Growth Theory Target Rate and Long-Run Saving (cont.) • Throughout the process, real GDP grows but the growth rate gradually decreases and eventually ends.

• Ongoing capital advances are constantly increasing the demand for capital, raising the real interest rate and inducing saving.

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Growth Theory

Neoclassical Growth Theory Target Rate and Long-Run Saving (cont.) • The process repeats as long as technology advances, creating an on-going process of long term economic growth.

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Growth Theory

Neoclassical Growth Theory Problems with Neoclassical Growth Theory • All economies have access to the same technologies, and capital is free to roam the globe seeking the highest available rate of return.

• This implies that growth rates and income levels per person around the globe converge.

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Growth Theory

Neoclassical Growth Theory Problems with Neoclassical Growth Theory • In reality, this convergence is slow and does not appear imminent for all countries.

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Neoclassical Growth Begins

10 Technological advances increase investment demand...

0 0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Savings and investment (trillions of 1992 dollars)

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Neoclassical Growth Ends

KS 0 KS 1 10 8 6 When the real interest rate exceeds the target rate, saving and investment increase the supply of capital.

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Growth Theory

New Growth Theory Holds that real GDP per person grows because of the choices that people make in the pursuit of profit and that growth can persist indefinitely.

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Growth Theory

New growth theory begins with two facts about market economies: 1) Discoveries result from choices.

2) Discoveries bring profit, and competition destroys profit.

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Growth Theory

Discoveries and Choices • The pace of discoveries is not determined by chance.

• It depends on how many people are looking for a new technology and how intensively they are looking.

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Growth Theory

Discoveries and Profits • • Profit spurs technological change.

Competition forces firms to seek lower-cost methods of production or new and better products.

• Eventually, discoveries are copied and profits disappear.

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Growth Theory

Two other facts are key to new growth theory: 1) Discoveries can be used by many people at the same time.

2) Physical activities can be replicated.

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Growth Theory

Discoveries Used by All: • Once a profitable new discovery has been made, everyone can use it.

• As the benefits spread, free resources become available because nothing is given up when they are used.

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Growth Theory

Replicating Activities: • The economy does not experience diminishing returns when it adds new factories identical to existing ones.

• Therefore, real GDP per person increases and does so indefinitely as long as people can undertake research and development that yields a higher return than the target real interest rate.

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New Growth Theory

2 3 4 5 Capital (trillions of 1992 dollars) KD 1 LKS KD 0

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Growth Theory

Sorting Out the Theories Probably none is exactly correct Classical theory reminds us that our physical resources are limited and that with no advances in technology we must eventually hit diminishing returns.

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Growth Theory

Sorting Out the Theories Probably none is exactly correct Neoclassical theory reaches essentially the same conclusion, but not because of a population explosion. It emphasized diminishing returns to capital and we cannot keep growth just by accumulating capital.

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Growth Theory

Sorting Out the Theories Probably none is exactly correct New growth theory emphasized the possible capacity of human resources to innovate at a pace that offsets diminishing returns.

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The End

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Chapter 10

Transcript Chapter 10

ECONOMICS 5e

Michael Parkin

11 Economic Growth

Learning Objectives

Learning Objectives (cont.)

Learning Objectives

Long-Term Growth Trends

A Hundred Years of Economic Growth in the United States

Long-Term Growth Trends

Learning Objectives (cont.)

Economic Growth Around the World: Catch-Up or Not?

Economic Growth Around the World: Catch-Up or Not?

Catch-Up Asia

Learning Objectives

The Causes of Economic Growth: A First Look

The Causes of Economic Growth: A First Look

The Causes of Economic Growth: A First Look

The Causes of Economic Growth: A First Look

The Causes of Economic Growth: A First Look

Learning Objectives

Growth Accounting

Growth Accounting

Y = F(N,K,T)

Growth Accounting

Real GDP per Hour of Work

Growth Accounting

Growth Accounting

Growth Accounting

How Productivity Grows

Growth Accounting

Growth Accounting

Growth Accounting

Growth Accounting

Growth Accounting

Growth Accounting

Growth Accounting and the Productivity Growth Slowdown

Growth Accounting

Growth Accounting

Growth Accounting

Growth Accounting

Learning Objectives (cont.)

Growth Theory

Growth Theory

Growth Theory

Growth Theory

Growth Theory

Growth Theory

Growth Begins

A Dismal Outcome

Growth Theory

Growth Theory

Growth Theory

Growth Theory

Growth Theory

Growth Theory

Growth Theory

Growth Theory

Growth Theory

Growth Theory

Growth Theory

Neoclassical Growth Begins

Neoclassical Growth Ends

Growth Theory

Growth Theory

Growth Theory

Growth Theory

Growth Theory

Growth Theory

Growth Theory

New Growth Theory

Growth Theory

Growth Theory

Growth Theory

The End

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