Transcript Security Dynamics in South Asia

Taj Hashmi
Professor, Security Studies
Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies
Honolulu, HI 96815
Email: [email protected]
South Asia: Political Geography
Geographical Diversity
Country
Population (million)
Size (sq km)
Afghanistan
27.1 million (UN, 2007)
647,500 (slightly smaller than
Texas)
Bangladesh
153,546,901 (July 2008
est.)
Bhutan
India
Maldives
Nepal
Pakistan
Sri Lanka
682,321 (2005 est.)
1,147,995,898 (July 2008
est.)
379,174 (July 2008 est.)
144,000 (slightly smaller then Iowa)
47,000 (About one half of the size
of Indiana)
3,287,590 (lightly more than onethird the size of the US )
300 (about 1.7 times the size of
Washington, D.C.)
29,519,114 (July 2008 est.) 147,181 (slightly larger than Arkansas)
167,762,040 (July 2008
est.)
803,940 (Slightly less than twice the
size of CA)
21,128,773
65,610 (slightly larger than West VA)
South Asia’s biggest threat comes
from within
 South Asian “Subcontinent” from Afghanistan to
Bangladesh home to more than 1.5 billion ethno-religiously
and linguistically diverse people
 Around 50% illiterate, 40% living below the Poverty Line
 Home to Authoritarian regimes and Flawed Democracy
 South Asia struggling with itself, countries fear most their
own neighbors
Postcolonial Syndrome: Lack of mutual
trust, respect & accountability
 Understanding of “Postcolonialism” essential: Bad governance, poverty
and corruption: the chicken and egg story – Unaccountability, a
colonial legacy
 Ethno-national insurgencies, separatism, terrorism, narco-terrorism,
religious extremism, Maoism are by-products of bad governance
 Ethnic (racial) & religious divide & acute regionalism – Hindu-Muslim,
Punjabi-Bengali, Southern-Northern, eastern-Western
 Uneven distribution of wealth & opportunities ; Water & food scarcity;
uneven growth & development due to prejudice, neglect and artificial
states / regions
South Asia’s Security Threats: Interstate
& Intrastate
 Interstate Conflicts: India vs. Pakistan – Kashmir, the mother
of all Indo-Pakistan conflicts, the Legacy of the Partition of 1947,
or problems of artificial statehood
 India vs. Bangladesh , India vs. Nepal. India vs. Sri Lanka and
Pakistan vs. Afghanistan
 Intrastate Conflicts: Hindu vs. Muslim, Northeast India vs.
New Delhi, Northwest vs. North India – Advanced vs. Backward
 NWFP-FATA and Baluchistan and Sind – Punjabis vs. Others,
Sindhis vs. Indian Muslim Immigrants in Pakistan– East
Pakistan vs. West Pakistan led to Bangladesh (1971)
 Tamil vs. Sinhalese in Sri Lanka led to 26-year-long civil war
South Asia’s Transnational Security
Threats (I)
 Non-State Actors’ Game: Transnational crime, insurgencies,
terrorism, narco-terrorism the biggest security challenges for South
Asia – Across Afghanistan-Pakistan-India-Bangladesh-Myanmar
 Internal factors: Marginalization of people, discrimination against
ethno-national-religious-linguistic groups –Religious and
Secular/communist insurgencies due to alienation of people
 Artificial states and problem of identity: Common race, language,
religion, sect, ideology unite people across the borders– Kashmir,
Afghanistan, NWFP/FATA, Baluchistan, Northeast India, Southeastern
Bangladesh, Southwestern Myanmar
 By-products of proxy wars: Bleed the “enemy nation”, often backfires,
– Kashmir, Baluchistan, NWFP, Assam, Southeast Bangladesh
South Asia’s Transnational Security
Threats (II)
 Narco-Islamist Terrorism: Drug-mafia, warlord and Taliban-al-
Qaeda nexus, Dawood Ibrahim, Lashkar-e-Taiyeba (LET) and Mumbai
Massacre (November 2008)
 Exploitation of Ethno-National & Religious Causes: Kashmir,
Pashtun Identity, Baluchistan, Refugee / Displaced / Marginalized
people’s vulnerability exploited in the name of religion & nationalism,
Maoism is the latest threat in India, Bangladesh and Nepal
 Transnational Security Threats transcend national boundaries:
They go beyond South Asia– Russia, Chechnya, Dagestan, Central Asia,
Middle East, Xinjiang, Myanmar, Thailand, Indonesia and the
Philippines
 HUJI, JMB, LeT, JeM, Afghan Taliban, Pakistani Taliban (TTP),
Jemah Islamiya, MILF (Southeast Asia) – Drug-Arms-Ideology
“India-Pakistan-Afghanistan-Myanmar Factors” and the
Failing State Syndrome: What is to be done? (I)
 India having bad to very bad relations with all its neighbors – India and
Pakistan’s proxy war in Afghanistan
 Need to mend fences and resolve internal problems, including Kashmir
 Afghanistan going beyond control: Drug not Taliban-al-Qaeda the
biggest security threat
 Afghanistan needs good / accountable government – Pashtun majority
must get due share in government
 Afghanistan’s $750 million annul revenue & paltry foreign aid
inadequate against Taliban-al Qaeda-Drug-lords’ billions of dollars
“India-Pakistan-Afghanistan-Myanmar Factors” and the
Failing State Syndrome: What is to be done (II)
 Pakistan must ensure equal opportunity to minorities and gradually
de-Islamize the polity and must contain Dawood Ibrahim Group and
Islamists & ambitious generals
 Myanmar should stop persecuting Rohingya Muslim, Karen and other
minorities -- China must be engaged to contain Myanmar
 Iran, Saudi Arabia must be engaged to contain Islamism
 Good governance must be ensured in South Asia, especially
Afghanistan – “American War” must become “Everyone’s War” beyond
the NATO – Human Security not Guns alone can ensure security