Transcript Document
Status of research
SB-23 17 May 2006 Luiz Pinguelli Rosa, Joyce Penner, Niklas Höhne
Overview
1.
2.
3.
4.
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Introduction to the MATCH process
Luiz Pinguelli Rosa
Analysing countries’ contribution to climate change: Scientific and methodological choices
Niklas Höhne
Closure and scientific uncertainty
Joyce Penner
Possible future work of MATCH
Niklas Höhne
Demonstration of JCM, FAIR and CAIT
Ben Matthews / Niklas Höhne / Jonathan Pershing
Modelling and assessment of contributions to climate change
• • •
Historical Background
In Kyoto, 1997, the Brazilian Proposal placed in focus the historical emissions’ contribution to increase the global temperature The calculation presented to support the proposal was based on the available data of historical emissions from each country after the Industrial Revolution The decay of additional GHG in atmosphere was simulated by a superposition of exponential functions, from Bern Model for calculating the gas concentration The climate response has been included trough another superposition of exponential functions for calculating the contribution of each country to temperature increase
Modelling and assessment of contributions to climate change
• • • • •
Historical Background
The calculation presented to support the Brazilian Proposal had some problems: The difficulty of having data of historical emissions from each country The lack of land use changes emissions The need of including contributions of other GHG The use of simple superposition of exponential functions The need of considering non linear effects
Modelling and assessment of contributions to climate change
MATCH process
UNFCCC process
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Two expert meetings Coordinated modelling exercise “ACCC”
• • •
Ad-hoc group Initiated by Brazil and UK Two expert meetings so far Modelling and assessment of contributions to climate change
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SBSTA 17 (Oct 2002)
Work should be continued by the scientific community
uncertainty and sensitivity , in particular to improve the robustness of the preliminary results and to explore the • Be of a standard consistent with the practices of
peer-reviewed published science
. • • The process should be
inclusive
,
open
and
transparent
.
Capacity building
: strongly encouraged Parties and institutions to facilitate capacity-building in developing countries, including by hosting scientists from developing countries • Invited the
scientific community
, including IGBP, WCRP, IHDP and IPCC to provide information on how they could contribute • Encouraged scientists to
undertake further work
, to make the results of their
work publicly available
and to report progress at SBSTA 20, June 2004 (side event). • SBSTA decided to
review the progress
at its 23 rd session (Nov 2005).
Modelling and assessment of contributions to climate change
MATCH process
Objective:
• Assess methods for
calculating the contribution of different emission sources
choices.
(e.g. regional, national or sectoral)
to climate change
and its impacts, taking into account uncertainties, and the sensitivity of the calculations to the use of different methods, models and methodological •
Outputs:
• Provide clear
guidance on the implications
of the use of the different scientific methods, models, and methodological choices
Where scientific arguments allow, recommend
or several possible methods/models/choices for each step of the calculation of contributions to climate change, taking into account scientific robustness, practicality and data availability one method/model/choice • Organization of
expert meetings
, workshops and a coordinated modelling exercise • Prepare
papers
to be published in peer reviewed scientific journals
Modelling and assessment of contributions to climate change
MATCH process
Scientific Coordination Committee Xiaosu Dai Michel den Elzen Jan Fuglestvedt (Co chair) Jason Lowe Joyce Penner (Co-chair Michael Prather National Climate Center, China RIVM, Netherlands CICERO, Center for International Climate and Environmental Research - Oslo, Norway Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, UK University of Michigan, USA University of California at Irvine, USA Cathy Trudinger CSIRO Atmospheric Research, Australia Murari Lal José Domingos Gonzalez Miguez Niklas Höhne (Secretary) IIT, India Interministerial Committee on Global Climate Change, Brazil Ecofys, Germany
Modelling and assessment of contributions to climate change
MATCH process
Developing country participation:
• Fund for travel costs of developing country experts sponsored by governments of Germany, Norway, UK
Support unit:
• Ecofys under contract to UK Defra
Information:
• http://www.match-info.net
Modelling and assessment of contributions to climate change
MATCH-info.net
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Background Organization Papers Expert meetings File exchange Discussion forum Modelling and assessment of contributions to climate change
Participation in addition to SCC
Atsushi Kurosawa Atul Jain Bård Romstad Ben Matthews Brian O’Neil Christiano Pires de Campos Fabian Wagner Gregory Bodeker Guoquan HU Ian Enting John van Aardenne Luiz Gylvan Meira Filho Luiz Pinguelli Rosa Malte Meinshausen Maria Silvia Muylaert de Araujo Michael Schlesinger Michiel Schaeffer Natalia Andronova Peter Stott Promode Kant Sarah Raper Suzana Kahn Ribeiro Stephen W. Wood Wandera Ogana
Institute of Applied Energy, Tokyo, Japan University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, USA CICERO, Oslo, Norway Universite catholique de Louvain, Belgium IIASA, Laxenburgm Austria University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington, New Zealand China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China The University of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra, Italy University of Sao Paulo, Brazil University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil University of Illinois, Urbana, USA MNP/RIVM, Bilthoven, Netherlands University of Illinois, Urbana, US Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Office, Exeter, UK Indira Gandhi National Forest Academy, Dehradun, India University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK University of Rio De Janeiro, Brazil National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington, New Zealand University of Nairobi, Kenya
Modelling and assessment of contributions to climate change
• • • • • • • • • • • •
Individual scientific papers
Pinguelli Rosa, Ribeiro, 1997:
“The share of responsibility between developed and developing countries in climate change, Greenhouse Gas Mitigation”. In Proceedings from the International Energy Agency Conference on GHG
Pinguelli Rosa, Ribeiro, 2001:
from fuels”, Climatic Change “The present, past, and future contributions to global warming of CO2 emissions
den Elzen, Schaeffer 2002:
“Responsibility for past and future global warming: Uncertainties in attributing anthropogenic climate change”, Climatic Change
Andronova, Schlesinger 2004:
“Importance of Sulfate Aerosol in Evaluating the Relative Contributions of Regional Emissions to the Historical Global Temperature Change”, Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies for Global Change
Pinguelli Rosa, Ribeiro, Muylaert, Campos, 2004:
due to land use change”, Energy Policy “Comments on the Brazilian Proposal and contributions to global temperature increase with different climate responses - CO2 emissions due to fossil fuels, CO2 emissions
Muylaert, Cohen, Pinguelli Rosa, Pereira, 2004:
“ Equity, responsibility and climate change” Climate Research
Muylaert, Campos, Pinguelli Rosa, 2005:
“GHG historical contribution by sectors, sustainable development and equity” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews
Campos, Muylaert, Pinguelli Rosa, 2005:
“Historical CO2 emission and concentrations due to land use change of croplands and pastures by country”, Science of the Total Environment
Trudinger, Enting, 2005:
“Comparison of formalisms for attributing responsibility for climate change: Non-linearities in the Brazilian Proposal approach”, Climatic Change
den Elzen, Schaeffer, Lucas, 2005:
Implementation”, Climatic Change “Differentiating Future Commitments on the Basis of Countries’ Relative Historical Responsibility for Climate Change: Uncertainties in the ‘Brazilian Proposal’ in the Context of a Policy
Rive, Torvanger, Fuglestvedt 2005:
“Climate agreements based on responsibility for global warming: periodic updating, policy choices, and regional costs”, Global Environmental Change
Höhne, Blok, 2005:
“Calculating historical contributions to climate change – discussing the ‘Brazilian Proposal’”, Climatic Change
Modelling and assessment of contributions to climate change
MATCH results
•
Paper #1:
Analysing countries’ contribution to climate change: Scientific choices and methodological issues: status of the work and first results •
Paper #2:
uncertainty Attributing a fraction of climate change to a nation's historical emissions: closure and scientific •
Other capacity developed as inspiration of the MATCH process:
– IVIG (Brazil) developed a detailed and flexible model of land-use emissions which has recently been coupled with the JCM carbon/climate model developed in UCL-ASTR (Belgium) – A researcher from CMA (China) visited NIWA (New Zealand) for an extended period to gain experience in modelling
Modelling and assessment of contributions to climate change
Overview
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Introduction to the MATCH process
Luiz Pinguelli Rosa
Analysing countries’ contribution to climate change: Scientific and methodological choices
Niklas Höhne
Closure and scientific uncertainty
Joyce Penner
Possible future work of MATCH
Niklas Höhne
Demonstration of JCM, FAIR and CAIT
Ben Matthews / Niklas Höhne / Jonathan Pershing
Modelling and assessment of contributions to climate change