Launch of the Study "Aid, Conflict and Peace Building in Sri Lanka 2000 - 2005" Strategic Conflict Assessment Comments by Ajith Nivard Cabraal Secretary, Ministry of Plan Implementation and Adviser to H. E. the President on Economic Affairs 16 th May 2006 St. Gregory Hotel, Washington DC

Asia Foundation Talking Points: (AF-TP)

Over-internationalization?

The Strategic Conflict Assessment (SCA) has observed that Sri Lanka's current peace process has had a large international involvement. Some state that there has been an over internationalization of the process. What should be the right level and kind of international involvement in the peace process?

Generally…

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"International" involvement in any "national" issue is a highly delicate affair and can be easily misunderstood; when issues are drilled down, it is often not the same as seen on the surface. The challenge is to strike the right balance between two extremes: "disinterested observer" to "meddlesome busy body". When different sections of the international community pursue different approaches, confusion results. Offending parties naturally lean towards the international agency practising "appeasement".

Specifically…

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Who should constitute the "international community" [IC] in relation to the Sri Lankan conflict?

What are the basic principles on which the IC is engaging itself in the process?

The practice followed at certain times by the IC to “balance” their comments can be quite irritating to the victim.

Does the IC really understand the completely different frameworks within which the Government and the LTTE operate?

AF-TP

Should we go the same way?

Is it desirable to pursue the current strategy followed by the International Community?

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The “international involvement” in Sri Lanka up to now has had successes as well as failures. The formula: "Aid for peace at any cost" has been viewed by Sri Lankans with acute suspicion.

The formula: "Aid for economic reforms" where the root causes for poverty are forgotten, neglected or misunderstood, has also led to failure. e.g., clear rejection of “Regaining Sri Lanka” US$ 4.5 billion aid for peace and reforms agenda.

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Trade and investment instead of aid is bound to be a lot more popular and sustainable.

The international "humanitarian" aid agencies' record in Tsunami development has been far from satisfactory. e.g., Even after 18 months, the houses built has been less than 3% of the pledged number in relation to the three main "international" humanitarian aid agencies. There is a clear need to understand the reasons for the successes and failures and modify the approach accordingly.

AF-TP

Role for India and the Asian Region?

The SCA argues there is a need to better appreciate Sri Lanka's regional context in relation to the peace process. To what extent can and should regional actors such as India take a greater role in the peace process? What role are regional actors willing to play?

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India is Sri Lanka's natural neighbor. The influence and impact of India on Sri Lanka cannot be under-estimated or devalued. India's recent economic and political resurgence and its fast emerging world wide political role has a tremendous influence in the region. Sri Lanka will naturally feel such impact. Sri Lanka is confident that India views Sri Lanka's political and economic stability as being of prime importance for the stability of the region.

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Perhaps India has been slightly reluctant to play a more dynamic role in Sri Lanka, due to certain political and military setbacks in the past. Today, with changed circumstances and a new regional political dynamism, India should be encouraged to play a more pro-active role.

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The rapidly growing regional understanding in South Asia should promote other regional actors to also pro-actively support Sri Lanka's peace process. A South Asian Regional role would undoubtedly assist Sri Lanka to develop economically, adopt an acceptable governance model, achieve a political settlement and prevail upon the LTTE to give up terrorism.

AF-TP

Match-fixing?

There is a perception that the international community by taking positions on the constitutional and political formulas of a settlement, have involved themselves in national policy debates that are partisan in nature. How broadly or how narrowly should foreign governments and donor agencies advocate particular formulas?

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The observation is basically true and the credibility of the international community has suffered considerably as a consequence. “Outcome-fixing" is as unacceptable as "match-fixing" and therefore those “pushing” it should desist from doing so. Constitutional and political formulas are best left to the body politic of the nation. The IC should limit itself to providing understanding about various concepts and methodologies and not promote specific "labels" and/or "brands".

AF-TP

Fate/Future of the CFA?

There has been an escalation of violence in the North-East since December 2005. Given that hundreds of people have been killed in armed combat, in what sense is the Cease Fire Agreement of February 2002 still operative? What purpose does the CFA now serve?

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The CFA with all its imperfections, is better than not having a CFA. It acts as a bench-mark for good behaviour and provides for a “referee”. The deadly game of terrorism unleashed by the LTTE would probably have been a lot more savage, if there was no referee to (at least) blow the whistle when there were/are violations. But, a referee who cannot issue a "red card“ the game. LTTE]. "yellow card" to offending players for continuous [According to SLMM, 96% of all violations of CFA numbering over 4,000 are by or violations of the rules cannot effectively control Some disincentive for bad behaviour is vital.

AF-TP

The Karuna Factor The Karuna issue is held out as being an immediate stumbling block to the resumption of talks. Will the LTTE discuss political issues while the Karuna issue is unresolved and if they are, how would the Government respond?

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Karuna alias V. Muralidaran was LTTE's Special Commander for Batticoloa and Amparai. Karuna attended five rounds of Peace Talks from 2002 to 2003. In March 2004, he dissented with LTTE Leader V. Prabhakaran and broke away, and is now conveniently termed by the LTTE as a "paramilitary" of the Government. Karuna is a LTTE dissident and not a "paramilitary" of the Government. In January 2006, SLMM confirmed that there is no evidence to state that Karuna is backed by the Government. What happened to previous dissidents and/or perceived dissidents?

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Karuna is not the first LTTE dissident. Neither will he be the last. According to reports, there are several cracks surfacing in LTTE’s monolithic structure. Should the disarming and/or eliminating of every LTTE dissident (past, present and future) be the responsibility of the Government?

If some members of the present political and/or military leadership break away from the LTTE next week, would disarming and perhaps even eliminating them be another new responsibility for the Government?

AF-TP

How about the process to discuss political issues?

What could be a possible process that would allow the Government and the LTTE to overcome the problems and get back to the underlying political issues related to power-sharing in the North and the East?

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The Government is ready, able and willing to discuss all issues relating to a devolved system of governance in the North and the East.

At the same time, as seen from the past, a "cut-and-dried" model where the Government offers "solutions" and the LTTE is free to reject such proposals outright and cry “not enough” will not be a suitable platform to promote a satisfactory solution.

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The talks should also be held in an atmosphere of non-violence. Hence, a] Respect for the Ceasefire is paramount: b] Recruitment of child soldiers should cease: c] LTTE extortion of funds based on goods, services and infrastructure services, most of which is paid indirectly by the Government, Donors and Lenders, should stop. Issues relating to Restoration of Democracy and Respect for Human Rights should be expeditiously addressed.

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Discussions have to be through a "dynamic process" where LTTE is involved as a key stakeholder together with other stakeholders to the issue. Any sustainable solution has to be worked out via concurrent discussion amongst the several stakeholders.

President Mahinda Rajapaksa and the Government has to continuously retain and maintain its credibility and leadership role so that a "final" solution could be worked out and thereafter submitted to the people for their acceptance.

REMEMBER ALSO….

Sri Lanka has a lot happening other than just aid and conflict …

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An ambitious development program as per the

Mahinda Chintana

is being vigorously implemented. Such program will reduce poverty and usher sustainable development. It would, of course, be greatly facilitated by peaceful conditions and political stability.

Accordingly, the commitment to the effort to end the present conflict and build a sustainable peace is of the highest priority to the President and the Government.