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Examples in Quantifying Flood Risk Presentation to National Flood Risk Management Policy Summit Edward Hecker Director, Contingency Operations U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 14 July 2009 How Katrina Impacted the Corps, and Implications for Those Living Near Water Slide11 Flood Risk Management Inventory and Assessments • National Levee Inventory: • Living database and national resource. • Include all federal and nonfederal levees • Risk Assessments: • Identify failure modes and prioritize remedial actions. levee_flood_fight_site levee_break_site sand_boil_point levee_inspection_line piezometer_point cross_section_line borehole_point levee_inspection_point encroachment_site How Katrina Impacted the Corps, and Implications for Those Living Near Water 2 Flood Risk Management Risk Quantification Risk = Hazard Probability X System Performance X Consequences Flood Hazards Seismic Hazards Asymmetric Hazards Infrastructure Reliability Infrastructure Resilience Operation & Maintenance Contingency Planning and Response Mitigation Life Loss Property Damage Social and Economic Damage Environment Evacuation Disaster Recovery Probability of Failure • Risk Quantification is key to managing risks: – Understanding the source and nature of the Risk – Communicating the Risk – Acting to Reduce the Risk How Katrina Impacted the Corps, and Implications for Those Living Near Water 3 Flood Risk Management Tolerable Risk Guidelines within a Risk Framework • Tolerable Risk Guidelines Informing Assessments: – How Safe is Safe? – Priority & Urgency – What is Tolerable? • Informing Management: – Effectiveness of Interim Measures? – What Options are Available? – What is Practicable? – How Well Justified is Action? TRG • Informing Communication: – How reliable is it? – What are Societal Risks? – What Risks Remain? Risk Framework How Katrina Impacted the Corps, and Implications for Those Living Near Water 4 Shared Flood Risk Management Residual Risk How Katrina Impacted the Corps, and Implications for Those Living Near Water 5 Policy Studies • Wise Use of Floodplains – An ongoing, IWR policy study to understand the effects of USACE programs and policies in different policy and watershed contexts on floodplain management choices affecting flood risk, and to describe options for policy, legislative or program reforms. • WRDA 2007, Section 2032 - The President is to submit a report to Congress describing the vulnerability of the U.S. to damage from flooding, comparative risks faced by different regions of the country, programs in the U.S. which may be encouraging development and economic activity in flood prone areas, and recommendations for improving those programs and proposals for implementing the recommendations. How Katrina Impacted the Corps, and Implications for Those Living Near Water 6 Flood Risk Management Cycle Event Preparation/Training Response State & local partnerships • Hazard mitigation plans • Floodplain mgnt plans • Pre & post response and recovery Mitigation Recovery How Katrina Impacted the Corps, and Implications for Those Living Near Water 7