Transcript Evaluation of Population By Age and Sex, 1971 to 1996

An Evaluation of the Age and Sex Data
from the Census Population of Canada,
Provinces and Territories,
1971 to 2001
BY
Shirley Loh, Ravi Verma and Margaret Michalowski
Prepared for presentation at the Canadian Population Society Annual Meetings,
Winnipeg, Manitoba, June 2004. This paper reports the results of research
and analysis undertaken by Demography Division, Statistics Canada staff. It
reflects the opinions of the authors and, not necessarily, those of Statistics
Canada and is released to inform and to encourage discussion.
Outline of Presentation
• Objectives & Review of literature
• Methodology:
Pyramid, Digit Preference Index,
Age-Sex Accuracy index
• Source of Data
• Results
• Conclusion and Discussion
Objectives and Review of literature
Objectives:
• To investigate if age heaping is present in single
year age data on population
• To examine the overall accuracy of population data
by age and sex
• To compare the level of accuracy of age-sex
population with some countries
Review of Literature:
• Norland, Litven and Cottrell (1977)
• Bourbeau and Lebel (2000)
• Poston and associates (2003)
Methodology
• Graphical presentation of population by
age and sex
• Computing Myers’ indices for detecting digit
preference in single year age reporting
• Computing age-sex accuracy index (U.N.
Method) based on 5 year age group
Myers’ Index
(unadjusted)
Calculation of Myers' Index for the Census Population for Canada, 1971 (Age range: 20-69)
Population with terminal digit a
Terminal digit, a
0 ………………………..
1 ………………………..
2 ………………………..
3 ………………………..
4 ………………………..
5 ………………………..
6 ………………………..
7 ………………………..
8 ………………………..
9 ………………………..
Total
Summary Index of age
preference = Total / 2
Starting at
age 20+a
(1)
Starting at
age 30+a
(2)
Weights for
Blended Population
Column 1
Column 2
(3)
(4)
Number
(1)x(3)+(2)x(4)=
(5)
Deviation of percent
from 10.00
(signs disregarded)
(6)-10.00=
(7)
Percent
distribution
(6)
1,312,688
1,279,233
1,239,109
1,231,712
1,224,163
1,164,711
1,153,462
1,139,818
1,115,520
1,088,204
(X)
931,643
907,788
868,791
855,511
833,769
834,905
830,377
816,490
803,429
792,392
(X)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
(X)
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
(X)
9,697,475
9,820,770
9,798,864
10,059,914
10,289,660
10,327,886
10,565,365
10,751,524
10,843,109
10,882,040
103,036,607
9.41
9.53
9.51
9.76
9.99
10.02
10.25
10.43
10.52
10.56
100.00
0.59
0.47
0.49
0.24
0.01
0.02
0.25
0.43
0.52
0.56
3.59
(X)
(X)
(X)
(X)
(X)
(X)
1.80
U.N. Method for Age-Sex Accuracy
(Unadjusted, Canada, 1971)
Population
Age
Under 5 years ……………….
5 to 9 years …………………..
10 to 14 years ……………….
15 to 19 years ……………….
20 to 24 years ……………….
25 to 29 years ……………….
30 to 34 years ……………….
35 to 39 years ……………….
40 to 44 years ……………….
45 to 49 years ……………….
50 to 54 years ……………….
55 to 59 years ……………….
60 to 64 years ……………….
65 to 69 years ……………….
70 to 74 years ……………….
75 to 79 years ……………….
80 to 84 years ……………….
85 to 89 years ……………….
Analysis of sex ratios
Male
Female
Ratio
(1)
(2)
[(1)/(2)]*100=
(3)
929,604
1,152,427
1,181,450
1,074,431
941,775
800,712
660,873
645,048
640,769
613,413
518,899
472,413
381,692
296,049
205,578
139,995
85,680
40,623
886,551
1,101,578
1,129,288
1,039,915
947,628
783,410
644,550
618,822
621,759
625,627
533,639
482,312
395,321
323,909
251,802
185,515
118,491
59,386
(4)
(X)
109.18
106.11
101.21
100.45
99.92
91.42
99.11
101.83
105.79
95.58
104.91
99.34
100.82
94.29
96.13
94.87
(X)
(X)
9.18
6.11
1.21
0.45
-0.08
-8.58
-0.89
1.83
5.79
-4.42
4.91
-0.66
0.82
-5.71
-3.87
-5.13
(X)
(X)
109.29
105.47
100.14
103.95
98.41
91.93
97.74
99.93
108.30
96.33
103.84
98.07
100.11
98.86
100.20
96.77
(X)
(X)
9.29
5.47
0.14
3.95
-1.59
-8.07
-2.26
-0.07
8.30
-3.67
3.84
-1.93
0.11
-1.14
0.20
-3.23
(X)
Total (irrespective of sign) ….
(X)
(X)
(X)
47.59
(X)
Mean
(X)
(X)
(X)
2.80
(X)
Index = 3 times mean difference in sex ratios plus mean deviations of male and female age ratios.
= 3 x 2.80 + 3.73 + 3.33 = 15.46
59.63
3.73
(X)
(X)
53.26
3.33
Criteria of the U.N. INDEX
Under 20
20 to 40
Over 40
→
→
→
Accurate
Inaccurate
Highly Inaccurate
104.86
104.62
104.62
103.32
99.38
102.21
102.53
104.24
103.06
98.05
97.24
97.95
96.55
91.40
81.64
75.46
72.31
68.41
Successive
differences
(X)
0.24
0.00
1.30
3.94
-2.83
-0.32
-1.71
1.18
5.01
0.81
-0.71
1.40
5.15
9.76
6.18
3.15
3.90
Analysis of age ratios
Male
Female
Deviation
Deviation
Ratio1
Ratio1
from 100
from 100
(5)-100=
(7)-100=
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
Source of Data
• Census population by age and sex,
adjusted for net census undercount,
1971-2001
Results: Myers' Index of Age Heaping by Sex,
Unadjusted Census Population, Canada
Results: Myers' Index of Age Heaping by Sex, Unadjusted Census
Population, Canada (Age Interval 20-69)
(Age Interval 20-69)
2.5
2
1.5
male
female
1
0.5
0
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
Results (cont’d): Myers’ Index of Age
Heaping, Canada, Provinces and Territories
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
Age Interval: 20-69
Canada
1.7
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.6
1.5
1.5
Newfoundland
1.3
1.3
1.2
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.2
Prince Edward Island
1.8
2.3
1.4
2.3
1.5
1.7
1.2
Nova Scotia
1.6
1.7
1.5
2.0
1.8
1.5
1.7
New Brunswick
1.6
1.7
1.4
1.7
1.7
1.4
1.6
Quebec
1.7
1.0
1.4
1.3
1.6
1.3
1.6
Ontario
1.9
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.7
1.6
1.5
Manitoba
2.0
1.5
1.9
1.7
2.0
1.6
1.7
Saskatchewan
1.8
1.6
1.9
1.8
2.1
1.5
1.8
Alberta
1.6
1.2
1.3
1.5
1.2
1.4
1.2
British Columbia
1.9
1.4
1.5
1.9
1.6
1.9
1.3
Yukon
2.2
1.2
1.6
1.0
1.5
1.1
1.1
Northwest Territories
1.8
1.3
1.1
1.0
0.9
1.2
0.8
Results (cont’d): United Nations Age-sex Accuracy
Index, Canada, Provinces and Territories
1971
16
19
25
20
19
17
1976
18
19
26
19
21
19
1981
21
22
27
22
22
21
1986
21
23
22
21
23
23
1991
20
22
23
22
22
21
1996
19
20
25
20
21
21
2001
19
21
26
22
21
23
Ont.
20
21
24
23
23
21
21
Man.
17
18
19
20
20
19
20
Sask.
16
16
17
18
19
20
21
Alta.
19
16
21
20
19
19
18
B. C.
20
21
23
22
21
20
20
Yukon
132
86
61
58
50
51
50
N. W. T.
53
50
39
43
38
55
57
Canada
N.L.
P. E. I.
N. S.
N. B.
Que.
: Accurate
: Inaccurate
: Highly Inaccurate
Limitations of the UN Age-sex Accuracy
Index (Siegel and Swanson, 2004)
• Central age group not included in the calculation
of the age ratio
• Expected decline in sex ratio with increasing age
not considered
• Considerable weight is given to the sex ratio
component in the formula
Results (cont’d): Revised Age-Sex Accuracy
Index, Canada, Provinces and Territories
1971
1976 1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
Canada
N.L.
14
16
15
16
18
19
18
20
17
19
16
18
16
18
P. E. I.
N. S.
21
17
22
16
23
19
19
18
20
19
22
17
22
19
N. B.
16
17
19
20
19
18
18
Que.
Ont.
14
17
16
18
18
20
19
20
18
19
18
18
19
18
Man.
14
15
16
17
17
16
17
Sask.
Alta.
13
16
13
13
14
17
15
17
16
16
17
16
18
16
B. C.
Yukon
17
122
18
80
20
56
19
52
18
45
17
46
17
44
N. W. T.
47
45
35
39
34
49
52
: Accurate
: Inaccurate
: Highly Inaccurate
Results (cont’d): Age-Sex Accuracy Index
for Canada in 2001 and for 42 Countries of
the World in 2000
Country
Highly inaccurate
United Arab Emirates
Bahrain
Saudi Arabia
Kuwait
Macau S.A.R.
Russia
Inaccurate
Hong Kong S.A.R.
North Korea
Somalia
South Korea (1970)
South Korea (1995)
China
Singapore
Taiwan
Germany
Yemen
Yugoslavia
Bangladesh
Iraq
Zambia
Liberia
ASAI
110.4
64.8
62.7
58.1
46.5
40.9
34.6
29.6
29.0
27.8
26.2
23.9
23.5
22.2
22.1
21.7
21.4
21.3
21.3
20.3
20.1
* based on unadjusted population
Country
Accurate
Canada (2001)*
Finland
Jordan
Gaza Strip
Sweden
Vietnam
France
Italy
Uganda
Spain
Japan
United Kingdom
Ireland
West Bank
Israel
Indonesia
Iran
United States
Kenya
Thailand
South Africa
Syria
Sri Lanka
ASAI
19.7
19.4
19.1
18.8
18.3
17.2
16.6
16.5
15.9
15.4
15.0
14.6
14.1
14.1
14.0
13.9
13.8
12.8
11.5
10.9
10.7
10.4
10.3
Conclusion
Myers’ Indices: Single Year Age Data
• No preference or avoidance of any year of birth
Age-sex Accuracy Indices: Five Year Age Group Data
• Accurate age-sex population data for Canada and all
provinces except Prince Edward Island, Yukon and
Northwest Territories
• The quality of Canadian age-sex population data is highly
comparable to Sweden and Finland
Unadjusted Census Population – Myers’ indices and age-sex
accuracy indices slightly higher than those based on adjusted
census population
Discussion
• No explanation provided by the United Nations
for the classification of the three categories
• Did the introduction of question on date of birth
in 1971 improve the quality of age-heaping?