Transcript Training in the Twenty-First Century

A “Warfighter” Perspective
Dennis K. McBride, Ph.D., CPE
CAPT, MSC, USN (Ret.)
Visiting Professor, Modeling & Simulation
Institute for Simulation & Training
University of Central Florida
XMSF Strategic Opportunities
6 September 2002
© 2002 Potomac Institute for Policy Studies
The Problem
“That’s not my problem.”*
“I didn’t say all those things I said.”+
* Any Navy (DoD, USG) Official
+ Yogi Berra
© 2002 Potomac Institute for Policy Studies
The Algorithm
Scientific
Article
Test
Dev
Test
Valid
Select
6.1
6.2
6.3
Adequate
Force
?
Y
N
Front
End
Analysis
Simulator
Dev
Train
Adequate
Force
?
Y
N
MILSTD
1472
MILH
46855
Equipment
Re-Design
Adequate
Force
?
Y
N
© 2002 Potomac Institute for Policy Studies
Mission
Accomplished
Exemplar: Just in time training
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The “Warfighter” Redefined for the
New Century:
D
Diplomacy
IIntelligence
E
Economics
M
Military
© 2002 Potomac Institute for Policy Studies
Evolutionary Environment of Ancestry
Present
Pleistocene
Pliocene
4 MYA
400-500 cc
Aferensis
2 MYA
600-700 cc
Habilis
1 MYA
900-1100 cc
Erectus
100K
1350 cc
Modern
3x increase in brain volume, mass
>3x increase in volumetric brain power
“Folding” provides continued geometric
increase in brain power
© 2002 Potomac Institute for Policy Studies
Brain Growth Data
For Hominidae
Source: McHenry, 1994
Estimates of
Human Processing Capabilities
Filtering Algorithms
Process
Sensory
Neural Coding
Cognitive
To Perm. Store
Flow (Bits/Sec)
% Filtered
% Orig. Filtered
1 Billion
3 Million
16
0.7
∞
--.0000000016
.0000000014
0.003
0.000005
0.04
Only 1.6 x 10-9 of data
bombarding the operator used
in real time!
Source: Steinbuck, 1962
© 2002 Potomac Institute for Policy Studies
Neuropsychological Sex Differences
More brain volume
More asymmetry
More white matter
Larger amygdala
Larger inferior parietal lobe
Seasonal fluctuation in testosterone
Greater aggressive behavior
Better spatial skills
Less asymmetry
More gray matter, density
Larger caudate
Larger hippocampus
Larger pallidum
Larger cingulate sulcus
More hormonal cyclicity
Better verbal skills
fMRI mapping is just beginning
Conclusion: We are learning more about differences
Today’s Function and Form
Reptilian Brain
Respiration…
Paleomammalian Brain
Memory, Discrimination,
Emotion…
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Neocortical Brain
Associative Reasoning…
The Prefrontal Cortex
What do engineers use for birth control?
Why did the golfer wear two pairs of pants?
Mr. Phinneas Gage’s railroad spike
Problem solving preparation (Carter, et al.)
Dorsolateral prefrontal cortex
Emotion processing (Adolphs, et al.)
Right hemisphere prefrontal cortex
Object categorization (Freedman, et al.)
Lateral prefrontal cortex
“Theory of the mind”
Prefrontal lobes, left amygdala
Executive control – switching (Rubinstein, et al.), simulation
Prefrontal cortex, parietal lobes
© 2002 Potomac Institute for Policy Studies
Information & Knowledge
Effects of information and knowledge will be
revolutionary. DoD has not fully exploited today's IT.
This will happen, but the next wave of IT will be as
difficult and expensive to adopt as today's
DoD will get most IT from commercial sector. But,
adaptation and special needs must be funded by DoD
Software development and maintenance must improve
Data validation problems must be solved
Need to improve the science of simulation
Must solve DoD’s IT workforce problems
© 2002 Potomac Institute for Policy Studies
Information & Knowledge
Information and knowledge systems are vital for:
• Information superiority
• Coordination of organizations and operations that are
progressively more:
Flat
Flexible
Smaller
Widely dispersed
Joint & Interagency
Coalition-oriented
• Precision, long distance fires
Data Volume
Too much data, too little wisdom
Storage
Sensors
In-situ
Processing
Communications
& Distribution
Final
Processing Display
© 2002 Potomac Institute for Policy Studies
Time
Information & Knowledge
Sensors will improve and proliferate
Performance to increase, cost to drop (e.g., uncooled IR)
Broader spectrum coverage (e.g., Dog’s Nose)
Individual collectors to huge arrays
In-situ processing – Information, rather than data
Infrared focal plane arrays obsolete much of our IR
countermeasure capabilities
Robotics – UAVs, mini- micro-, and eventually nanobots
Thousands of networks replenishing military databases
and cross feeding a variety of perspectives
© 2002 Potomac Institute for Policy Studies
Information & Knowledge
Hardware and Processing technologies will improve in
speed, power, memory, and storage capacity In 15 years
chips will be about 15K more capable than today’s (24 hour
task in 1 hour) without breakthroughs
New Silicon production techniques Vs new materials
Next generation processors? Anything that counts!
•
•
•
•
Optical Computing: Electronics will yield to the “Optical Age”
Quantum Computing (e.g., Spintronics)
DNA computing
Parallel Processing: Needs new software concept!
Storage: GMR 1 CD may eventually have the storage
capacity of 1,000 CDs, providing all information needed
for an entire mission
© 2002 Potomac Institute for Policy Studies
Information & Knowledge
Software technologies and approaches must change
Problems …
Excessively long delivery times
Failure of large, complex software codes
Information assurance/security
Considerable supply from foreign sources
Challenged by large amounts of information
Creation and maintenance
“If I were to select the most critical R&D need today, it is in software tools and
management techniques. Almost every system we develop involves the dominant
use of software, and many of the problems we face stem from software issues. This
is an area where we need long- range Research and Development efforts to develop
new technologies for future systems; and short-range management approaches
(often those being applied in commercial industry).” Jacques Gansler’s Opening
Statement to the HASC, 3/1/2000.
© 2002 Potomac Institute for Policy Studies
Information & Knowledge
… And solutions:
Better software through OOP???????
AI: High expectations, disappointing results
• Two ways to give machines “common
sense”
Provide background info
Teach to learn
• Benefits include:
Data/information management – “Wisdom from data”
Reduce choices (Choosing your TV programs?)
Tireless, “Human-like” associates
Robotic self-reinvention
© 2002 Potomac Institute for Policy Studies
Information & Knowledge
Communications will be ubiquitous,
autonomous, secure, broadband to
distribute increasing information
Fiber optics and other technologies will enable BOD
to be reached in hard-connected systems
Wireless connections to moving stations to remain a
challenge
Improved smart wave-forms will be developed for all
operations
Internet. By 2003, Internet use will almost double, will
be an even more complex, reliable, and secure system
© 2002 Potomac Institute for Policy Studies
Chronology of IT x Psychology
1000 1640s – 1840s
Mech.
Clocks
1900s
2000
Pascaline
Explosive growth
Boolean logic Ethology
Pentium 32-bit
WWW ubiquitous
PDA ubiquitous
1BIPS@300MHZ
Touch screens
Voice interactive
Face recognition
E-commerce
Wireless comm
(Aristotle)
Liebniz
computer
(Egypt,
map)
Babbage
engine
-Electrical
-Electronics
-Computing
-Communication
Descartes
Evolution
Psychobiology
Locke
Cognitivism
Learning Theory
Berkely
Artificial Intel.
Hume
Neural Nets
Ada Lovelace Gestaltism
programmer Behaviorism
2010 – 2020
2025
$1K=1T/calc/sec
Embedded comp.
Wireless  wired
Biocomputing
Speech recog ubiq
Intelligent tutoring
Reliable transla.
Orbital sensing
$1K=10 brains
Computers ubiqui.
3-D displays
Speech>>manual
Virtual presence
Visual  auditory
Virtual transactors
Orbital  personal
Sociobiology
Biology
Mill
Wundt
Mendel
Galton
Darwin
Based on multiple sources including Ray Kurzweil
© 2002 Potomac Institute for Policy Studies
2050
$1=1 brain
Sensory implants
Direct neural paths
Agent learning,
entrepreneuring
Agent>human interaction
All-sensor comm.
Machines think
they are consc.
Orbitalpersonal
Bioengineering
Augmented Cognition
Moore’s
Law
Decade of the
Cognitive
Brain fMRI
Revolution
© 2002 Potomac Institute for Policy Studies
Objective
Capability
1, 2, or 3 Order of Magnitude Improvement in Net HumanMachine Information Capacity: a Symbiotic Marriage
Digital Computation
Networking
Memory
Symbiotic Marriage
AugCog:
Improved Human
Performance
Human
Biological intelligence is at a relative standstill.
Time
This Will Improve and Enhance the Quality of
Military Decision Making
© 2002 Potomac Institute for Policy Studies
Computer Power and Networking
Computers will continue to follow Moore’s Law
• Speed and memory double every eighteen months (ex:
terraflop, petaflop and computers run on light)
• Bandwidth has increased speed and sending capacity
for all users
Programming has completely changed in the last 15
years and will continue to change
Neural networking, based on brain, function may
increase capacity of computers
Knowledge and information may become so
abundant it will impede our ability to learn
© 2002 Potomac Institute for Policy Studies
Trainability
Income gaps follow
knowledge gaps
Americans as a whole
are well-educated but
many are still
unprepared for work
Technology has not
been able to bridge the
education gap in K-12
Learning in the future
will be reorganized to
meet the needs of the
ever-changing worker
Predictors of success in
work and school:
• Socio-economic
status
• Graduation rates fall
along racial lines
• IQ testing, regardless
of education level
© 2002 Potomac Institute for Policy Studies
Trainability
Digital technology will revolutionize the practice
of teaching and training
There is a good possibility learning will drive
technology
• More is spent on learning than on the movie
industry each year in the U.S.
Three Major types of training:
• Organizational
• Learner-driven
• Technology-mediated
© 2002 Potomac Institute for Policy Studies
Trends in Organizational Learning
Reduce gap in product-service time
Need for globalization
Ability to extend instructor impact online
Business and education units should work
together
Minimize non-instructional cost (technology
should reduce cost)
Desire for different types of learning
Need performance support in training
Choices in pricing, assessment and class
selection
© 2002 Potomac Institute for Policy Studies
Trends in Learner-Driven and
Technology-Mediated Learning
Learner-Driven
• Workers have good tools
for learning at home-put
them to use
• Learning independent of
time and place
• Multi-modal, multi-lingual
individualized training
• “Learnbots” will help
decide what to learn and
how to learn
• Need for “coaching”
rather than “sage on the
stage” teaching
Technology-Mediated
• Open-architecture,
adaptable devices and
authoring tools
• Standard and speedy
bandwidth
• Virtual libraries
• New pedagogy
• More accessible tutors
• Substantive content
© 2002 Potomac Institute for Policy Studies