2008 results and outlook
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Transcript 2008 results and outlook
Total and the Photovoltaic Solar Market
KAZENERGY 2011 - ASTANA
GILLES PERROT
The rationale for solar energy
2 500
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An unlimited and gigantic source of Energy
A clean source of power
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CO2 emissions (Kg CO2/KWh)
0,88
0,89
Natural gas
Fuel
0,98
0,43
0,11
Solar PV
Combined
cycle gas
turbine
Coal
Source greenit.fr
The level of CO2 emissions/kWh from a solar PV system
is between 4 to 10 times less compared to a
traditional fossil fueled power plant
The sun delivers the equivalent of 10000 times the current
global energy consumption
Advantages
3
A medium-term competitive energy
4 A source of energy spread across the whole planet
Solar Photovoltaic Production costs per Watt (in $)
100
80
x1/100
60
Current cost
reduction trend:
-5%/y.
40
20
0
1980
1990
2000
2010
Solar power is expected to achieve competitiveness with the
power grid retail price (“grid parity”) in many regions
Levels of sunshine on Earth: the countries of the North and
South have the necessary resources
Solar energy relies on strong drivers which will turn it into a key
source of energy in the long-term
Capturing solar market growth
Estimated solar market
segments breakdown
Estimated worldwide
solar photovoltaic cumulative capacity
(Average 2011-2021)
GW
5% of the world
electric
production in
2030
1,200
1200
1,000
1000
Off grid
3%
900 GW
20 to 25% of
annual growth
until 2020
800
800
Residential
rooftops
31%
Solar farms
33%
600
600
400 GW
400
400
200
200
37 GW
0
2010
2020
Total high scenario
2030
Total base scenario
source : Total
Grid parity speeding up market growth
3
Commercial
rooftops
33%
Competitiveness with conventional electricity
Estimated grid parity - Residential
Germany
€/kWh
0.25
Cost of solar power generation
Electricity price
0.15
0.05
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Southern Italy
€/kWh
0.15
0.05
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Solar rooftop systems expected to become competitive
without subsidies for most OECD residents by 2020
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The 3 PV technologies
Crystalline silicon
Thin films
Crystalline silicon (c-Si) modules
represent around 85% of the
global annual market today
5
Organic PV
Thin Films modules represent
around 15% of the global annual
market today
Emerging technologies entering
the market via niche applications
+
efficiency, reliability
+
cost, technical constraints
+
cost, technical constraints
-
cost, technical constraints
-
efficiency
-
life duration, efficiency
Focus on the crystalline silicon PV chain
~ 99.9999% pure
~ 25% of
the earth
surface
~16% efficiency
1KWc ~ 10m2
98.5 to
99.9%
Si solar
Si
~50% of SI loss
Wafers
Cells
Modules
Systems
Si metal.
Base chemicals
Specialist chemistry &
electronics industry
Assembly, Engineering,
Installation
Leverages of competitiveness:
Critical size
Low cost country
4
leverages
Vertical Integration
6
Techno differentiation
Applications
Focus on TOTAL’s Assets
~ 99.9999% pure
~ 25% of
the earth
surface
~16% efficiency
1KWc ~ 10m2
98.5 to
99.9%
Si solar
Si
~50% of SI loss
Wafers
Cells
Modules
Systems
Si metal.
Base chemicals
Specialist chemistry &
electronics industry
Assembly, Engineering,
Installation
TOTAL’s
Assets
(OPV)
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Applications
Focus on SunPower
A worldwide leader which successfully handles its growth
Company Overview
UPP
Silicon
Ingots
Wafers
Cells
Modules
Commercial
Residential
Through JVs
Created in 1985, SunPower is based in San Jose, California.
SunPower is one of the world’s leading solar PV players:
•
•
•
•
Integrated player from ingots to systems installation.
High efficiency mono-c-Si cells (reached 24.2%) and modules.
Large scale manufacturing in Asia (reaching c. 2GW in 2014).
A strong downstream position in the U.S. / Europe with a 4GW pipeline.
Key Figures:
• 2010 Sales: $2.2bn
• More than 5000 employees
• 60% owned by TOTAL as of the14th of June
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