Transcript 2008 results and outlook

Total and the Photovoltaic Solar Market
KAZENERGY 2011 - ASTANA
GILLES PERROT
The rationale for solar energy
2 500
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An unlimited and gigantic source of Energy
A clean source of power
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CO2 emissions (Kg CO2/KWh)
0,88
0,89
Natural gas
Fuel
0,98
0,43
0,11
Solar PV
Combined
cycle gas
turbine
Coal
Source greenit.fr
The level of CO2 emissions/kWh from a solar PV system
is between 4 to 10 times less compared to a
traditional fossil fueled power plant
The sun delivers the equivalent of 10000 times the current
global energy consumption
Advantages
3
A medium-term competitive energy
4 A source of energy spread across the whole planet
Solar Photovoltaic Production costs per Watt (in $)
100
80
x1/100
60
Current cost
reduction trend:
-5%/y.
40
20
0
1980
1990
2000
2010
Solar power is expected to achieve competitiveness with the
power grid retail price (“grid parity”) in many regions
Levels of sunshine on Earth: the countries of the North and
South have the necessary resources
Solar energy relies on strong drivers which will turn it into a key
source of energy in the long-term
Capturing solar market growth
Estimated solar market
segments breakdown
Estimated worldwide
solar photovoltaic cumulative capacity
(Average 2011-2021)
GW
5% of the world
electric
production in
2030
1,200
1200
1,000
1000
Off grid
3%
900 GW
20 to 25% of
annual growth
until 2020
800
800
Residential
rooftops
31%
Solar farms
33%
600
600
400 GW
400
400
200
200
37 GW
0
2010
2020
Total high scenario
2030
Total base scenario
source : Total
Grid parity speeding up market growth
3
Commercial
rooftops
33%
Competitiveness with conventional electricity
Estimated grid parity - Residential
Germany
€/kWh
0.25
Cost of solar power generation
Electricity price
0.15
0.05
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Southern Italy
€/kWh
0.15
0.05
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Solar rooftop systems expected to become competitive
without subsidies for most OECD residents by 2020
4
The 3 PV technologies
Crystalline silicon
Thin films
Crystalline silicon (c-Si) modules
represent around 85% of the
global annual market today
5
Organic PV
Thin Films modules represent
around 15% of the global annual
market today
Emerging technologies entering
the market via niche applications
+
efficiency, reliability
+
cost, technical constraints
+
cost, technical constraints
-
cost, technical constraints
-
efficiency
-
life duration, efficiency
Focus on the crystalline silicon PV chain
~ 99.9999% pure
~ 25% of
the earth
surface
~16% efficiency
1KWc ~ 10m2
98.5 to
99.9%
Si solar
Si
~50% of SI loss
Wafers
Cells
Modules
Systems
Si metal.
Base chemicals
Specialist chemistry &
electronics industry
Assembly, Engineering,
Installation
Leverages of competitiveness:
Critical size
Low cost country
4
leverages
Vertical Integration
6
Techno differentiation
Applications
Focus on TOTAL’s Assets
~ 99.9999% pure
~ 25% of
the earth
surface
~16% efficiency
1KWc ~ 10m2
98.5 to
99.9%
Si solar
Si
~50% of SI loss
Wafers
Cells
Modules
Systems
Si metal.
Base chemicals
Specialist chemistry &
electronics industry
Assembly, Engineering,
Installation
TOTAL’s
Assets
(OPV)
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Applications
Focus on SunPower
A worldwide leader which successfully handles its growth
Company Overview
UPP
Silicon
Ingots
Wafers
Cells
Modules
Commercial
Residential
Through JVs
 Created in 1985, SunPower is based in San Jose, California.
 SunPower is one of the world’s leading solar PV players:
•
•
•
•
Integrated player from ingots to systems installation.
High efficiency mono-c-Si cells (reached 24.2%) and modules.
Large scale manufacturing in Asia (reaching c. 2GW in 2014).
A strong downstream position in the U.S. / Europe with a 4GW pipeline.
 Key Figures:
• 2010 Sales: $2.2bn
• More than 5000 employees
• 60% owned by TOTAL as of the14th of June
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