Transcript Renewables: Overview (Brazil, 2002)

Renewable Energy: Overview
Wim C. Turkenburg
Copernicus Institute for
Sustainable Development and Innovation
Utrecht University
The Netherlands
Unicamp, Campinas, Brazil
19 February 2002
WORLD ENERGY ASSESSENT
Renewable Energy & WEA
• Chapter 5:
Energy Resources
(Hans-Holger Rogner)
• Chapter 7:
Renewable Energy
Technologies
(Wim C. Turkenburg)
Lead authors chapter 7:
- Jos Beurskens
- André Faaij
- Peter Fraenkel
- Ingvar Fridleifsson
- Erik Lysen
- Davis Mills
- Jose Roberto Moreira
- Lars Nilsson
- Anton Schaap
- Wim Sinke
Advantages Renewables
•
•
•
•
•
Improving access to energy sources
Diversifying energy carriers
Balancing the use of fossil fuels
Reducing dependence on imported fuels
Reducing pollution from conventional
energy systems
• Suited to small and large scale applications
Disadvantages Renewables
•
•
•
•
Technologies often capital intense
Energy costs often not (yet) competitive
Diffuse energy source: spatial requirements
Environmental concerns (hydro, wind,
biomass)
• Intermittent character (wind, solar)
Present contribution Renewables
World primary energy consumption in 1998
______________________________________________________________________________________________
Fossil fuels:
- oil
- natural gas
- coal
320 EJ
(80%)
142 EJ
85 EJ
93 EJ
______________________________________________________________________________________________
Renewables:
- large hydro
- traditional biomass
- ‘new’ renewables
56 EJ
(14%)
9 EJ
38 EJ
9 EJ
______________________________________________________________________________________________
Nuclear:
26 EJ
(6%)
______________________________________________________________________________________________
Total:
402 EJ
(100%)
Technical Potential Renewables
Supply in 1998
Biomass
Wind
Solar
Hydro
Geothermal
Marine
45 ± 10
0.07
0.06
9.3
1.8
-
EJ
EJ
EJ
EJ
EJ
Technical potential
200-500
70-180
1,500-50,000
50
5,000
n.e.
EJ/y
EJ/y
EJ/y
EJ/y
EJ/y
Biomass energy conversion
Sources:
- plantations
- forests residues
- agricultural residues
- municipal waste
- animal manure
- etcetera
Biomass energy conversion
• Production of heat:
improved stoves, advanced domestic heating
systems, CHP.
• Production of electricity:
(co-)combustion, CHP, gasification (BIG-CC,
engines), digestion (gas engines).
• Production of fuels:
ethanol, biogas, bio-oil, bio-crude, esters from
oilseeds, methanol, hydrogen, hydrocarbons.
Produced by: extraction, fermentation, digestion,
pyrolysis, hydrolysis, gasification and synthesis.
Status biomass energy
• Cost biomass from plantation already favourable
in some developing countries (1.5-2 $/GJ).
• Electricity production costs of 0.05-0.15 $/kWh.
• New technology (BIG-CC) needed to reduce
electricity production costs to 0.04 $/kWh.
• Advanced technologies to produce bio-fuels
(methanol, hydrogen, ethanol) at competitive
cost (6-10 $/GJ).
Biomass energy development
strategies
• More experience with, and improvement of, the
production of energy crops.
• Creating markets for biomass.
• Development and demonstration of key
conversion technologies.
• Poly-generation of biomass products and energy
carriers from biomass.
• Policy measures like internalizing external costs
and benefits.
Modern wind energy
Modern wind farms
some key figures
• On land wind farms: capacity varying from 1 MW
to 100 MW (Spain even 1000 MW)
• Typical ex-factory price : US$ 350 to 400 per m²
rotor swept area
• Installed power varying from 400 W/m² (low wind
speed area) to 550 W/m² (high wind speed area)
• Present most applied turbines: 0.6 MW to 1.5 MW
(or approx. 43 m Ø to 60 m Ø).
Market development
Market development
some key figures
• Total installed power 23,300 MW (end 2001,
world).
• 82% of power in only 5 countries (D, DK, E,
USA, India)
• Growth during last 5 years: > 30 %/year.
• ‘Progress’ factor: 80 %.
• Energy pay back time: 0.25 - 0.5 years.
• Technical life time: 20 years.
Future development wind
•
•
•
•
•
Wind turbines become larger.
Wind turbines will have fewer components.
Special offshore designs.
10 percent grid penetration maybe around 2020.
Installed capacity in 2030 could be 1,000 – 2,000
GW.
• Potential development energy production costs:
0.05 –> 0.03 $/kWh (+ 0.01 $/kWh for storage).
Solar PV stand-alone systems
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
consumer products
telecom
leisure
water pumping
lighting & signalling
rural electrification
etc.
Solar
Home
System
(Bolivia)
PV-pumped cattle
drinking trough (NL)
Grid-connected PV systems
• building- & infrastructure-integrated PV
– roofs
– facades
– sound barriers
– etc.
• ground-based power plants
“City of the Sun”
50,000 m2 PV (NL)
PV sound barrier (NL)
“PV gold” (Japan)
PV market growth
shipments per year (MW)
300
275
250
225
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
3
4
4.7
5
4.6
4.4
5.6
6.35
9.75
9.4
18.7
20.5
23.42
Europe
6.7
7.9
10.2
13.4
16.4
16.55
21.7
20.1
18.8
30.4
33.5
40
60.66
Japan
12.8
14.2
16.8
19.9
18.8
16.7
16.5
16.4
21.2
35
49
80
128.6
USA
11.1
14.1
14.8
17.1
18.1
22.44
25.64
34.75
38.85
51
53.7
60.8
74.97
Total
33.6
40.2
46.5
55.4
57.9
60.09
69.44
77.6
88.6
125.8
154.9
201.3
287.65
ROW
Status Solar PV
• Conversion efficiencies of PV modules
ranging from 6-9% (a-Si) to 13-15% (x-Si).
• Many PV technologies under development.
• Increase PV shipments (50 MW in 1991; 150
MW in 1998; 280 MW in 2000).
• Continuous reduction investment costs
(learning rate ~20%).
• > 500.000 Solar Home Systems installed in
last 10 years.
Potential development Solar PV
• Investment costs grid-connected PV-systems
may come down from 5-10 $/W –> 1 $/W.
• Energy payback time may come down from
3-9 years –> 1-2 years (or less).
• Electricity production costs may come down
from 0.3-2.5 $/kWh –> 0.05-0.25 $/kWh.
• PV can play a major role in rural
electrification.
Future of PV: some conclusions
• PV technically sufficiently mature for largescale use.
• large room for improvement in cost (x 1/5) and
performance (x 2).
• major contribution (EJ, CO2) from PV requires
long-term approach, but:
• great commercial, economic, and development
opportunities.
Solar Thermal Electricity
• Production of high temperature heat, using
concentrating systems, to generate electricity
• Applicable in sunnier regions
• All technologies rely on four basic elements:
- collector / concentrator
- receiver
- transport / storage
- power conversion
Solar Thermal Electricity
Single Axis
Tracking:
Through system
- commercial
available since
1980’s
- current energy
costs 0.12-0.18
$/kWh
- potential energy
costs 0.06 $/kWh
Solar Thermal Electricity
Two Axis Tracking:
Solar Tower
- started 1980’s,
several built
- Illustration: Solar One
10 MW plant (Barstow,
California, 1982-1988)
- Solar Two recently
demonstrated molten
salt heat storage,
delivering power to the
grid on a regular basis
Solar Thermal Electricity
Two Axis Tracking:
dish / heat engine
power plant
- several prototypes
operated successfully
in last 10 years.
- size prototypes: ~
400 m2; 10 kWe.
- 2-3 MWe dish plant
under development,
attached to existing
power plant.
STE: some conclusions
• Installed STE capacity about 400 MWe (1 TWh/y)
may grow to 2000 MWe in 2010.
• Solar fields can be integrated into fossil fuel
power plants at relatively low cost.
• STE conversion efficiency may increase from
13-16% in near term to 16-20% in long term.
• Electricity production costs may come down from
0.12-0.18 $/kWh today to 0.04-0.10 $/kWh in
long term.
Low Temperature Solar Energy
• World’s commercial low-temperature heat
consumption: 50 EJ/y for space heating and
10 EJ/y for hot water production.
• Low and medium temperature process heat
consumption (up to 200 °C): 40 EJ/y.
• Demand can be met partially with solar
energy.
• Mismatch between demand and supply
requires heat storage.
Low Temperature Solar Energy
Solar Domestic Hot
Water system (SDHW)
- Collector area per
system 2-6 m2.
- Energy cost 0.03-0.25
$/kWh.
- Solar fraction 50-100%.
- Collector area installed
is about 30,000,000 m2,
equivalent to 18,000 MW,
generating 50 PJ heat per
year.
Low Temperature Solar Energy
Large water heating
system
- Around one-tenth of
total installed area.
- Wide spread use in
swimming pools,
hotels, hospitals, …
- Cost per kWh
somewhat less than
for SDHW systems
Low Temp. Solar Energy Technologies
Other options:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Solar space heating (solar combi-systems).
District heating (central collector area).
Heat Pumps (tens of millions installed).
Solar cooling (poor economics today).
Solar cooking (over 450,000 box-cookers in India).
Solar crop drying (over 100,000 m2 installed).
Passive solar energy use (new building design).
Hydro-electricity
Salto Caxias hydro plant. More than 30% of total investment budget
allocated to 26 socio-environmental projects
Electricity from hydropower
GERAÇÃO
DE ELETRICIDADE
- MUNDO
PRIMARY
SOURCES
OF ENERGY
FOR
WORLD ELECTRICITY GENERATION
Large-scale systems:
45
- 2,510 TWh/year
______________________________________________
Small-scale systems:
- 23 GW installed
- 90 TWh/year
Relative Participation (Percent)
- 640 GW installed
40
40
35
30
25
19
20
16
15
14
10
5
0
Coal
Carvão
Figures 1997
11
Hydro
Hidro
Nuclear
Nuclear
Natural
Gás Natural
Gas
Oil
Derivados
based
Petróleo
Hydropower: some conclusions
• Production may increase to 6000 TWh in 2050.
• Technologies available to reduce social and
ecological impacts.
• Hydropower plants are capital intensive.
• Large scale systems: mature technology, unlikely
to advance.
• Electricity production costs 0.02-0.10 $/kWh.
• Additional advantages: operating reserve, spinning
reserve, voltage control, cold start capability.
Geothermal Energy
• Used for bathing and washing for thousands
of years.
• Used commercially for some 70 years
• High temperature fields in more than 80
countries.
• Low temperature resources found in most
countries.
Geothermal electricity production
Some conclusions:
• 45 TWh produced in 1998
• Electricity production
cost: ~ 0.04 $/kWh
• Efficiency power plant:
5-20 %
• Accessible potential:
12,000 TWh/year
• Annual growth installed
capacity: ~ 4 %
Installed capacity in
1998: 8,240 MW
USA:
2,850
Philippines: 1,848
Italy:
769
Mexico:
743
Indonesia:
590
Japan:
530
New Zealand: 345
Iceland:
140
MW
MW
MW
MW
MW
MW
MW
MW
Direct use of geothermal heat:
some conclusions
•
•
•
•
•
•
Utilization in 1998: 40 TWh
Production cost: 0.005-0.05 $/kWh
Conversion efficiency: 50-70 %
Accessible resource base: 600.000 EJ
Annual growth installed capacity: ~ 6%
New challenge: geothermal heat pumps
Marine energy technologies
•
•
•
•
•
Tidal barrage energy
Wave energy
Tidal / marine currents
Ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC)
Other options
Potential contribution renewables
100
Scenario C1
Traditional renewables
Biomass
Hydro
Nuc.
80
Gas
Percent
Other
Oil
60
Solar
40
Coal
20
0
1850
100
1900
1950
Scenario C2
Traditional renewables
2000
2050
2100
Potential contribution renewables
Shell scenario
Potential contribution renewables
Potential contribution in second half of the 21th century:
20 - 50 % of total energy consumption.
Transition to renewables-based energy systems relies on:
- Successful development of renewable energy
technologies that become increasingly competitive.
- Removal of barriers to the deployment of renewables.
- New policy instruments to speed-up the diffusion.
- Political will to internalise environmental (external)
costs that permanently increase fossil fuel prices.
Policy options: cost-buy-down and
dissemination
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS)
Concessions
Green electricity market
Carbon dioxide tax
Subsidies with “sunset” clauses
Retail financing
Clean Development Mechanism
WORLD ENERGY ASSESSENT
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