Transcript Conceptual Graph - American Meteorological Society

Objective Techniques
In
Analog Seasonal Forecasts
•Analog Forecasting
•Objectively Picking Analogs
•Tools for Interpretation
•The Forecast
•Future Developments
Analog Seasonal Forecasting
• Look at this year so far…
Analog Seasonal Forecasting
• Look at this year so far…
• Look for past years that are similar to
this year …
Analog Seasonal Forecasting
• Look at this year so far…
• Look for past years that are similar to
this year …
• Use what subsequently happened in
those past years as a forecast for what
will happen this year.
Analog Seasonal Forecasting
• Look at this year so far…
• Look for past years that are similar to
this year …
• Use what subsequently happened in
those past years as a forecast for what
will happen this year.
PNA
Sahel Rainfall
Climate Indices
PNA (Pacific North American Index)
NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation)
Jones NAO
EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation)
TNH
ONI
NTA (North Tropical Atlantic Index)
CAR (Caribbean Index)
MEI
BEST
Nino 3
Nino 1+2
Nino 3+4
Nino 4
Pacific Warm Pool
Tropical Pacific SST EOF
TNA
TSA
WHWP WP (West Pacific Index)
QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation)
PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation)
PMM (Pacific Meridional Mode)
NP (North Pacific Index)
NOI (Northern Oscillation Index)
AO (Arctic Oscillation)
AAO
TNI
Atlantic Tripole SST EOF
AMO
AMM (Atlantic Meridional Mode)
ACE (Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone
Intensities)
Solar Cycle (Flux)
Monthly Hurricane Total
MDR Hurricanes SST Anomaly
MDR - Tropics SST Anomaly
Central India Monsoon Precipitation
Sahel Rainfall
Brazil Rainfall
SW USA Monsoon
Global Mean Temperature
ESPI
Globally integrated angular
momentum
Automate the Process
• Compare each previous year to this
year…
• Compute a “Goodness of Fit”
number…
• Sort “Goodness of Fit”…
• Print/Save results…
• Do this for multiple indices…
• Find “Consensus” analog years
Objective Forecast
Objective Forecast
The Indices:
MEI
CPC SOI
BOM SOI
ONI
NINO3 TEMPS
NINO4 TEMPS
PNA
PDO
WP
Analog Composites
November
Temperature
Precipitation
December
Temperature
Precipitation
January
Temperature
Precipitation
February
Temperature
Precipitation
March
Temperature
Precipitation
April
Temperature
Precipitation
Highs
Lows
Analog
Average
Period of Record
Average
32F = 273.15K
Wind storm 9th, 10th or 11th? … Mild Thanksgiving
30dm 500H anomaly over Pacific Northwest
Flirt w/cold air ~12th-14th
Cold 20th-29th…Possible Arctic Event(s)?
Positive 500H anomaly ~ 800 west of Oregon
Warm 2nd -8th (Early “January Thaw”?)
Arctic event toward end of month?
500H/850T significant negative anomaly
Cool Month
Valentine’s Day Snow?
30dm 500H negative anomaly
Wind Event 17th, 18th or 19th?
500H anomaly positive/850T anomaly negative
Active month.
Wide swings in temperatures but averages out cool.
Government Camp Snow
Government Camp Snow
November
•2008: 4th and 5th 16 inches total…gone by 11th.
•2000: Snow on 6th, snow again on 8th and continuous
snow cover through the end of the month.
•1999: 21st and 22nd eight inches total…all melted by 27th.
•1989: Six inches on 13th… 24th-27th twenty-eight inches.
•1974: 18th through 27th seventeen inches total.
•1971: Twenty-one inches on ground to start month…
snowed fourty-seven inches during month.
Government Camp Snow
November
•2008: 4th and 5th 16 inches total…gone by 11th.
•2000: Snow on 6th, snow again on 8th and continuous
snow cover through the end of the month.
•1999: 21st and 22nd eight inches total…all melted by 27th.
•1989: Six inches on 13th… 24th-27th twenty-eight inches.
•1974: 18th through 27th seventeen inches total.
•1971: Twenty-one inches on ground to start month…
snowed fourty-seven inches during month.
Government Camp Snow
December
23d 24th 25th 26th 27th 28th 29th 30th 31st
2008 63
61
72
72
71
69
59
61
55
2000 44
44
48
48
44
42
40
40
36
1999 10
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
1989 1
1
T
0
0
1
T
T
0
1974 27
27
27
27
28
30
30
35
34
1971 69
73
68
68
66
64
68
74
72
Snow Depth in Inches
Government Camp Snow
December
23d 24th 25th 26th 27th 28th 29th 30th 31st
2008 63
61
72
72
71
69
59
61
55
2000 44
44
48
48
44
42
40
40
36
1999 10
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
1989 1
1
T
0
0
1
T
T
0
1974 27
27
27
27
28
30
30
35
34
1971 69
73
68
68
66
64
68
74
72
Snow Depth in Inches
Government Camp Snow
December
23d 24th 25th 26th 27th 28th 29th 30th 31st
2008 63
61
72
72
71
69
59
61
55
2000 44
44
48
48
44
42
40
40
36
1999 10
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
1989 1
1
T
0
0
1
T
T
0
1974 27
27
27
27
28
30
30
35
34
1971 69
73
68
68
66
64
68
74
72
Snow Depth in Inches
Further Development
Further Development
More indices
Further Development
More indices
Write routine(s) to produce and
verify historical forecasts
Further Development
More indices
Write routine(s) to produce and
verify historical forecasts
Index/time period weighting
Forecast Summary/Questions
Climate Division 2 – Willamette Valley
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Above Near Near Below Near Below
Precip: Near
Near Above Near Below Near
Temp:
[email protected]
[email protected]