Transcript DROUGHT OF 2012 - Ohio State University

NATIONALLY AND ACROSS OHIO
GETTY IMAGES
DROUGHT OF 2012
 PRE EXISTING CONDITIONS
 COMPARISONS TO THE LAST DROUGHT
IN 1988 BOTH NATIONALLY AND ACROSS OHIO
 WHERE WE ARE NOW
DROUGHT OF 2012
WHAT IS DROUGHT?
METEOROLOGICAL – DEGREE OF DRYNESS DETERMINED BY
THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT – LINKS METEOROLOGICAL
DROUGHT TO
EVAPORTRANSPIRATION, SOIL
WATER DEFICITS, REDUCED
GROUND WATER…
DROUGHT OF 2012
WHAT IS DROUGHT?
METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT
AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT
FLASH DROUGHT
DROUGHT CONDITIONS THAT DEVELOP OVER A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME (MONTHS OR WEEKS) DUE TO
SUDDEN JUMPS IN TEMPERATURES
BACK IN 2011…
BACK IN 2011…
BACK IN 2011…
BACK IN 2011…
BACK IN 2011…
BACK IN 2011…
END OF YEAR SUMMARY
 YEAR ENDED WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ACROSS GREAT PLAINS AND THE OHIO VALLEY
 SOIL MOISTURE IN OHIO WAS ABOVE NORMAL,
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN PARTS OF
GREAT PLAINS
END OF YEAR SUMMARY
 YEAR ENDED WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ACROSS GREAT PLAINS AND THE OHIO VALLEY
 SOIL MOISTURE IN OHIO WAS ABOVE NORMAL,
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN PARTS OF
GREAT PLAINS
 WINTER 2011-2012 FEATURED WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL SNOWFALL
 SIGNS OF DROUGHT EXPANSION BEGAN TO APPEAR
LATE 2011 PATTERN
LATE 2011-WINTER 2012 PATTERN
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES START TO
EXPAND, MERGE. TROUGH FLATTENS
VERY WARM WINTER IN CORN BELT
VERY WARM WINTER - ALL OF OHIO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WERE WIDESPREAD ACROSS CONTINENT
LARGE VARIATIONS IN SOIL MOISTURE FROM
OHIO VALLEY TO CORN BELT BY LATE JANUARY
EARLY JANUARY PACIFIC SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES INDICATE LA NINA
EARLY JANUARY PACIFIC SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES INDICATE LA NINA
 According to Dr. Klaus Wolter, University of Colorado
(www.esrl.noaa.gov),
 “…Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is based on 6 main
observed variable over the tropical Pacific.”
EARLY JANUARY PACIFIC SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES INDICATE LA NINA
 According to Dr. Klaus Wolter, University of Colorado
(www.esrl.noaa.gov),
 “…Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is based on 6 main
observed variable over the tropical Pacific.”
 Sea Level Pressure
 Zonal and Meridional components of the surface wind
 Sea Surface Temperature
 Surface Air Temperature
 Total cloudiness/fraction of the sky
RED = EL NINO
BLUE = LA NINA
RED = EL NINO
BLUE = LA NINA
RIDGE DOMINATED WINTER PATTERN
STRENGTHENED SIGNIFICANTLY BY MARCH
RIDGE DOMINATED WINTER PATTERN
STRENGTHENED SIGNIFICANTLY BY MARCH
HISTORICALLY WARM MARCH!
FLASH DROUGHT TRIGGER!
RIDGE DOMINATED WINTER PATTERN
STRENGTHENED SIGNIFICANTLY BY MARCH
RIDGE DOMINATED WINTER PATTERN
STRENGTHENED SIGNIFICANTLY BY MARCH
RIDGE DOMINATED WINTER PATTERN
STRENGTHENED SIGNIFICANTLY BY MARCH
HOW WARM WAS MARCH 2012?
 MARCH WAS THE WARMEST SINCE RECORD
KEEPING BEGAN IN THE CONTIGUOUS US
SURFACE DATA & SATELLITE DATA (1979)
 WHEN COMPARED TO OTHER MARCHES IN PAST
DROUGHT YEARS (1930, 1931, 1953, 1954, 1988)
THIS PAST MARCH BLOW THEM ALL AWAY!
HOW WARM WAS MARCH 2012?
RANKED DROUGHT YEARS
1st
23rd
1930
48th
1931
1953
77th
85th
1954
87th
1988
2012
1930
1931
1953
1954
1988
SURFACE DATA - NCDC
2012
HOW WARM WAS MARCH 2012?
 MARCH WAS THE WARMEST SINCE RECORD KEEPING
BEGAN AT ALL REPORTING STATIONS IN OHIO
(1871).
 NEXT WARMEST MARCH IN ANY DROUGHT YEAR
WAS IN TOLEDO IN 1953 (RANKED 30TH)
 ONLY 3 OTHER MARCHES IN THE DROUGHT
 YEARS AT ANY REPORTING STATION IN OHIO
CRACKED THE TOP 50 ALL TIME (1870s)
ANOTHER DRIVER OF DROUGHT
MARCH PRECIPITATION
MARCH PRECIPITATION
SPRING SOIL MOISTURE
SPRING SOIL MOISTURE
SPRING SOIL MOISTURE
EARLY SUMMER SOIL MOISTURE
EARLY SUMMER SOIL MOISTURE
FLASH DROUGHT OVER OHIO
FLASH DROUGHT OVER OHIO
HOW DID 2012 COMPARE TO
PAST DROUGHTS ACROSS OHIO?
1988 MONTHLY DROUGHT INDICES
FOR 5 OF THE 10 OHIO CLIMATE DIVISIONS
2012 DROUGHT CAME ON MUCH FASTER AFTER
ABNORMALLY MOIST CONDITIONS
DROUGHT CHRONOLOGY
DROUGHT CHRONOLOGY
DROUGHT CHRONOLOGY
DROUGHT CHRONOLOGY
DROUGHT CHRONOLOGY
DROUGHT CHRONOLOGY
COURTESY: WUNDERGROUND.COM
DROUGHT CHRONOLOGY
DROUGHT CHRONOLOGY
DROUGHT CHRONOLOGY
ANY CHANGES AT SUMMER’S END?
ANY CHANGES AT SUMMER’S END?
ANY CHANGES AT SUMMER’S END?
ANY CHANGES AT SUMMER’S END?
CORE OF THE DROUGHT SHIFTED WEST
BY EARLY FALL
CORE OF THE DROUGHT SHIFTED WEST
BY EARLY FALL
CORE OF THE DROUGHT SHIFTED WEST
BY EARLY FALL
CORE OF THE DROUGHT SHIFTED WEST
BY EARLY FALL
CORE OF THE DROUGHT SHIFTED WEST
BY EARLY FALL
DROUGHT OF 2012 vs DROUGHT OF 1988
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
DROUGHT OF 2012 vs DROUGHT OF 1988
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
DROUGHT OF 2012 vs DROUGHT OF 1988
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
2012 EASTERN
TROUGH MUCH
STRONGER IN EARLY
FALL THAN IN 1988
DROUGHT 2012 RECAP
 ABNORMALLY WET 2011; DROUGHT ALREADY
UNDERWAY IN TEXAS
 MILD WINTER 2011-12; REDUCED SNOW
PACK/MOUNTAINS
 FIRST TRIGGER: RECORD SETTING WARMTH IN MARCH
 FASTER SNOWMELT; CONDITIONS DRIED OUT FAST IN
CENTRAL US
DROUGHT 2012 RECAP
 RIDGE CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN WHICH FEED THE
HEAT. THIS MADE CONDITIONS WORSE WHICH FEED
MORE HEAT WHICH STRENGTHENED THE
RIDGE…FEEDBACK LOOP!
 OHIO’S 2012 DROUGHT CAME ON FASTER THAN ANY
OTHER DROUGHT.
 OVERALL PATTERN IMPROVED IN THE FALL.
WHERE ARE WE NOW?
HOW MUCH RAIN IS NEEDED TO
END THE DROUGHT?
OHIO HAS NO DROUGHT!