Transcript Slide 1
ZOLTEK COMPANIES, INC.
Commercializing Carbon Fibers Sustainable Product with Sustainable Business Model
G6: Think Equity 6
th
Annual Conference
September 16, 2009
Forward-Looking Statements
This presentation contains forward-looking statements, which are based upon the current expectations of the Company. This presentation also contains pro-forma financial statements, which are unconventional and are based on the Company’ view of it’s financial position and results. Because these forward-looking statements are inherently subject to risks and uncertainties, there are a number of factors that could cause the Company’s plans, actions and actual results to differ materially. Among these factors but not exclusive of others are: The Company’s ability to continue to re-activate its formerly idle manufacturing facilities on a timely and cost effectively; The Company’s ability to meet current order levels for carbon fibers and to achieve profitable operations; The Company’s ability to successfully add new capacity for the production of carbon fiber and precursor raw material; The Company’s ability to raise new capital and increase its borrowing at acceptable costs; The Company’s ability to manage changes in customers’ forecasted requirements for the Company’s products; The Company’s ability to continue investing in application and market development; The Company’s ability to manufacture low-cost carbon fibers and profitably market them and penetrate existing, identified and emerging markets. The timing and occurrence (or non-occurrence) of transactions and events that determine the future effect of these factors on the Company, as well as other factors, may be beyond the control of the Company. The Company’s ability to execute plans to exit its specialty products business and reduce costs.
The Company undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement to reflect events or circumstances after the date of this presentation
Source: Zoltek management.
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About Zoltek: Our Mission Statement
To lead the commercialization of carbon fibers!
…by introducing carbon fibers as a low cost but high performance reinforcement for composites used as a primary building material in everyday products.
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Materials Evolution The Pursuit of Higher Performing Materials…
Wood Stone & Concrete Metals Plastics Glass Fiber Composites Carbon Fiber Composites
Commercialization…
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Zoltek’s Vision and Strategy…..
Commercialization of Carbon Fibers
Now is the most exciting time in Carbon Fiber History
$150
0 1970 1980 1985 Initial Commercialization Use in aerospace expanding 1988 Zoltek enters market
$65 $20 $10
1994 1998 Limited industrial use Zoltek introduces low-cost carbon fiber 5 2002 2008 2012 Rapidly expanding into new uses Growth of existing and new applications 4/29/2020
Zoltek’s Business model vs. industry practices 1. Lowest-cost producer 2. Sustainable pricing 3. Supply commitment 4. Commercial development Zoltek
– Textile type precursor – Lowest capital investment in the industry by designing own equipment – Proprietary high-throughput process (50K filament) – Stable pricing - independent of aerospace cycles – Compete with other materials – Demonstrated ability to add capacity in 6 months – Maintain available capacity for growing applications – Co-develop solutions with commercial end-users
Carbon Fiber Industry
– Special Acrylic Fiber (max.12K filament) precursor – Much higher capital investment requirements, specialty equipment-based assembly – Lower-throughput process – Unpredictable, Market-driven pricing – Compete with other carbon fiber manufacturers – Capacity additions that take 18-36 months – Only expand capacity when demand far exceeds supply – Obtain qualifications for specific programs
Source: Zoltek management.
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Aerospace vs. commercial carbon fiber is not based on performance - it is based on business model
Performance properties of Zoltek fibers equals aerospace fibers Wind turbine blades have same performance requirements as aircraft structures – differences are the qualification/certification process and the economics Carbon fiber reinforced wind turbine blades vs Boeing 747 aircraft
45m (147 ft) Boeing 747 57m (186 ft)
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Zoltek Products: Commercial Carbon Fibers are the Standard
Carbon fiber is classified into two categories: 1. Standard Modulus 2. Intermediate/High Modulus The vast majority of the carbon fiber volume, including aerospace use, is in the standard modulus category Zoltek’s Panex 35 is at the high end of standard modulus category 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 8 Zoltek Panex 35 Standard Modulus Intermediate and High Modulus 85 – 90% of volume 10 – 15% of volume 20 30 40 50 Tensile Modulus (Msi) 60 4/29/2020 70
Zoltek Panex 35 Carbon Fiber Is the Best Value for Commercial Applications
5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 300 250 200 150 100 50 4900 3400 250 220 $40 $30 $20 $10
Range of Standard Modulus Fibers
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Zoltek PANEX35 Toray T700 Hexcel AS4D
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Zoltek Carbon Fiber – Panex 35
Source: Zoltek management.
• Panex 35 fiber is different because it has high filament count (50 K per tow) • This helps drive the low cost economics • This also creates different fiber handling behavior that needs to be addressed • Difference disappears in intermediate products • In a composite, Panex 35 behaves the same as aerospace carbon fibers 10 4/29/2020 1 0
Carbon Fiber Value Chain – PANEX Product Become Indistinguishable from Aerospace Carbon Fibers
Carbon Fiber Production Dry Process Customer Application PANEX Tow Wetting Process Composite Part Making Filament Winding Pultrusion / Pull-winding Prepreg Autoclave / Vacuum Braiding Weaving UD Fabrics Multi-axial Composite Part Wind turbine blade Auto body panel etc.
Infusion/RTM PANEX Milled/ Chopped Compounding 11 Injection / Compression Molding 4/29/2020
Carbon Fiber Market: Short-term global demand projections
140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2007 2008 2009 growth will not materialize 2009 12 2010 2011 2012 Thermoplastics / Electr.
Transportation / Marine Sporting Goods Infrastructure Offshore Drilling Industrial Automotive Alt. Energy / Wind Aerospace 4/29/2020
Short-term global supply projections
120 100 80 60 40 20 0
26%
2007
Forecasted Industry Capacity (2008, 2009,2010 – Announced 2011, 2012 – Zoltek Estimate)
In 2009 no new expansion but Several delays announced
28% 29% 29%
2008 2009 13 2010
28%
2011
30%
Zoltek 2012 Toray Toho Mitsubishi Hexcel Cytec SGL Other 4/29/2020
Our ability to ramp capacity is Zoltek’s largest differentiator among carbon fiber producers
2 0 6 4 14 12 10 8 2
Zoltek Capacity Growth Sufficient to reach $300 million revenue
10,5 13
62% CAGR
6,5 3,5 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 14 4/29/2020
Long-term global demand potential (Zoltek’s estimate)
350 300 250
2017 demand represents less than 10% of glass fiber current demand
Annual 30% demand growth
200 Thermoplastic / Electronics Transportation / Marine Sporting Goods Infrastructure / Construction 150 Oil/Off-shore Drilling Industrial 100 Automotive 50 Alternate Energy / Wind Energy 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Aircraft / Aerospace 15 4/29/2020
New commercial uses have rapidly expanding requirements Sporting Goods = 28 years Wind = 4 years
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Carbon Fiber market conditions/volatility Total carbon fiber market is extremely small in relative terms to other building materials – approximately 100 million pounds (50,000 MT) Any major new application or customer can cause shortage or any new addition to capacity can cause over-supply. Market will need to increase 2-3 times before new demand or new capacity can be smoothly absorbed Zoltek is the only supplier who can support multi million pounds of new demand – and we want to keep it that way!
Source: Zoltek management.
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Zoltek’s short-term strategy/goal Maintain leadership in the commercial market
1. Take advantage of installed capacity – Capacity for approximately $400 million revenue with minimum additional investment 2. Commercialize several strategic value added products to: a) increase revenue and profitability, b) have closer contact with our customers and c) reduce revenue volatility 3. Successfully implement Joint Venture – Technology Transfer concept to: a) expand our leading position in commercial carbon fiber market and technology and b) Assist in the globalization of our business
Source: Zoltek management.
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2012 -2013 Market Objective - $500 million revenue
1. Must maintain our leadership position in wind turbine application (Current market share approx. 80%) 2. Develop commercial volumes in deep sea drilling application (Currently completed demonstration projects) 3. Develop significant business in compressed natural gas 4. Add to our automobile success (BMW, Tesla, Corvette) 5. Maintain organic growth in existing applications , including technical fibers
Source: Zoltek management.
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Wind Turbine Business - $200 million
1.
Electric generating capacity increases by the square of the length of the blades – economics is driving turbine manufacturers to longer blades 2.
Eventually all blades somewhere over 40 meters (130 ft) will require carbon fibers for their structural component 3.
Maintain our market leadership – 5 year contracts with Vestas and Gamesa, new contracts pending 4.
Technology for other wind turbine manufacturers is different and requires significant engineering to implement use of carbon fibers. We are making rapid progress – GBT contract 5.
Current slow order flow is reflection of the financing uncertainties 20 4/29/2020
Wind Energy Is Not Going Away
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Wind Farms Set Wall Street Aflutter
Wall Street Journal, August 31, 2009
By Russel Gold, Wall Street Journal After nearly a six-month lull, Wall Street is getting back into the business of financing new wind farms.
Morgan Stanley and Citigroup Inc. have invested $100 million each to finance separate wind farms this month, taking advantage of a brand-new federal program that is paying substantial cash grants to help cover the cost of renewable energy investments.
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Oil & Gas Market - $50 million
1. Significant current buoyancy business 2. Successful umbilical demonstration projects 3. Several initiatives with risers, choke and kill pipes 4. Deepwater exploration is critical to meeting global oil demand 5. Explosive long-term potential market!
Umbilicals Buoyancy Floats Tethers Drill Risers Drill Riser Modules 23 4/29/2020
BP's Big Oil Find Cements Gulf's Revival
Wall Street Journal, September, 3, 2009
By Russell Gold, Wall Street Journal BP PLC announced a major new oil find in the Gulf of Mexico, the latest in a string of discoveries there that cements the offshore waters of the southern U.S. as one of the oil world's most promising exploration regions.
………… As new technologies have enabled exploration in the deepest recesses of the Gulf, nearly a dozen discoveries, including BP's Tiber, have been made beneath nearly two miles of water.
Indeed, a BP spokesman said of Tiber: "We believe it's the deepest well ever drilled by the oil and gas industry." 24 4/29/2020
CNG Vehicle Growth - $75 million Actual Projected
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Panex 35 in Filament Winding
• •
Entec Composite Machines, which is a Zoltek Company, is a leading supplier of filament winding equipment We have developed methodology and equipment for winding high quality structures using Panex 35
Source: Zoltek management.
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Existing applications to grow - $100 million
CNG tank installation into a car and storage/filling station and shipping options Bus or truck CNG tanks installed
Source: Zoltek management.
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Compressed Natural Gas Vehicles – Implementation requires 3,000 psi tanks
CNG tank installation into a car Bus or truck CNG tanks installed Shipping and storage options with pressure tank modules
Automotive Market Reality - $75 million
1. Currently in Low-Volume Production
BMW uses a number of carbon fiber parts Corvette ZR-1 uses our fibers Tesla designed their car with our fibers Number of small volume applications are in production
2. Working Towards High-Volume Production
Reduction in process costs will have a more significant impact on the current situation than a decrease of carbon fiber prices A 300,000 unit car model would require 40 million pounds of carbon fiber!
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Automotive adaptation of Carbon Fibers
1.
Carbon fiber cost is not the reason for slow adaptation 2.
The major barriers to deploying carbon fiber in series OEM production are assembly costs conversion, component manufacturing, and 3.
Up to 45% waste is common in some processes.
4.
Thermoplastic reinforced with carbon fibers may be better technology 30
60% OEM manufacturing & Assembly costs 15% 25% material conversion Costs & waste Primary material costs
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Chevrolet Corvette Z06 & ZR-1 – roof, hood, front spoiler, front fender, side rocker panels and rear spoiler 31 4/29/2020
Ferrari – Carbon/ceramic brakes for all models 32 4/29/2020
Existing applications to grow - $100 million
1. Aircraft brakes – we have approximately 75% of this market (20 year contract with Goodrich) 2. Automobile brakes – we expect to mover to lower cost cars 3. Thermoplastic compounding – mostly electric conductivity and will grow as mechanical applications develop 4. High voltage conductor reinforcement – a number of companies globally looking for competitive products 5. Technical fibers – expect automotive applications to grow
Source: Zoltek management.
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2009 performance is a reflection of outside factors
FY 2009 is a difficult and unpredictable year because the global economy had significant negative affect Our raw material price has decreased significantly and our selling prices were adjusted accordingly Energy costs are changing Currencies we deal in are fluctuating We had price pressure from customers We are incurring significant costs to maintain our excess capacity Zoltek’s future potential has not changed – actually it has improved Long-term goals are still in place and attainable from the potential demand and our installed capacity 34 4/29/2020
COMMERCIALIZING CARBON FIBER