Transcript PACRA INSIGHT

PACRA INSIGHT
A Medium to communicate with the Users of Ratings
ISSUE III; February 2014
Wednesday, February 12, 2014
Humaira Jamil
Communicating…….
•
The Insight behind PACRA INSIGHT
•
PACRA’s Rating Universe (Product-by-product) – Key Developments & Trends
•
Pakistan’s Rating Universe – Snapshot
•
Industry View – General Insurance, Microfinance, Power, Refining, Textiles,
AMCs, cement
The Insight behind PACRA INSIGHT
Consolidating
Information
Promoting
Transparency
There is nothing so terrible as ACTIVITY without INSIGHT
Johann Wolfgang Von Goethe
PACRA’s Rating Universe – Key Developments
& Trends
FIGURE I
SNAPSHOT - PACRA Ratings Composition
(Dec10- Dec13)
80%
250
220
215
70%
220
210
219
218
222
200
60%
50%
150
40%
100
30%
20%
50
10%
0%
0
Dec10
Jun11
Dec11
Jun12
Dec12
Jun13
Mutual Funds (including Asset Managers)
Instrument Ratings
Entity Ratings
PACRA Opinions (Total)
Dec13
New (withdrawn / redeemed) Ratings (Nos.)
90%
PACRA Universe-Total Ratings (Nos.)
300
30
300
20
215
220
10
219 218
210
250
222
220
200
0
150
-10
100
-20
Dec10 Jun11 Dec11 Jun12 Dec12 Jun13 Dec13
-30
50
0
New Clients
Withdrawals / Redemptions
Total PACRA Opinions (Nos.)
Ratings ( PACRA Universe Share %)
100%
FIGURE II
SNAPSHOT - PACRA Ratings Universe Growth
(Dec10 - Dec13)
PACRA’s Rating Universe – Entities
98
90%
97 97
80%
96
70%
95
95
95
60%
94
50%
40%
30%
93
93
93
92
92
92
20%
91
10%
90
0%
89
Dec10
Jun11
AAA
BBB
All Entity Ratings
Dec11
Jun12
AA
BB - B
Dec12
Jun13
Dec13
A
CCC - C
FIGURE IV
Entity Rating Activity across Rating Categories
(For calendar year ended Dec 31, 2013)
4
3
(Nos.)
100%
Rating Activity - upgrades/Downgrades
Ratings category Share (%)
FIGURE III
PACRA Entity Ratings Composition & Growth
(Dec10 - Dec13)
2
1
0
-1
AAA AA+
AA
AA-
A+
A
A- BBB+ BBB BBB- BB-B CCCC
-2
Upgrades
Downgrades
PACRA’s Rating Universe – Entities
PACRA ENTITY RATING UNIVERSE (Entry / Exit)
(For calendar year ended Dec 31, 2013)
Entities
Initial L/T
Ratings
Withdrawn Entities
Last L/T
Ratings
Financial Institutions
1.
SME Bank
2.
The Pakistan General Insurance
Company
3.
Waseela Microfinance Bank
4.
Saudi Pak Insurance Company
BBB
1.
Pak Brunei Investment Company
AA
A-
2.
Arif Habib Investments
A+
BBB+
ACorporates
5.
Autosoft Dynamics
A-
3.
Ahmed Fine Textile Mills
A-
6.
Mangla Metals
BBB
4.
Hussain Mills
A-
7.
Kohsar HydroPower
BBB
5.
FFC Energy
A
8
Pakistan Refinery
A-
6.
Halmore Power Generation Company
A
9.
Islamabad Electric Supply
Company
A+
10.
Maple Leaf Cement Factory
Limited
BB
PACRA’s Rating Universe – Outlook Analysis
Ratings Outlook Analysis
Opening @ July 1, 2013
Positive
Negative
9
6
Translated in Rating Change (-)
1
3
Translated in Outlook Change (-)
2
0
Maintained (+)
5
3
Ratings Not Reviewed (+)
0
0
Withdrawn (-)
1
0
During 1HFY14: New (+)
4
2
Opening @ Jan 01, 2014
9
5
PACRA’s Rating Universe – Instruments
FIGURE V
SNAPSHOT - PACRA Instrument Rating Universe Composition
& Growth
(Dec10- Dec13)
100%
70
80%
70%
60%
60
58
51
46
50
49
45
50%
39
40
36
30
40%
30%
20
20%
10
10%
0%
0
Dec10 Jun11 Dec11 Jun12 Dec12 Jun13 Dec13
AAA
A
BB - B
All Instrument Ratings
AA
BBB
CCC - C
Ratings (Nos.)
Ratings category Share (%)
90%
PACRA’s Rating Universe – Instruments
PACRA INSTRUMENT RATING UNIVERSE (Entry / Exit)
(For calendar year ended Dec 31, 2013)
[Initial ratings] Issuers / Instruments
Initial Instrument Ratings
1.
NIB Bank | TFC II: Upto PKR 5,000mln (including a green
shoe option of PKR 1,000mln) TFC TBI1
A+
2.
PAIR Investment Company | CP: PKR 500mln CP TBI
AA
3.
Bank Alfalah | TFC V: PKR 500mln TFC V issued Feb13
AA-
4.
5.
6.
7.
The Pakistan Water & Power Development Authority |
PPTFC2: PKR 9,327mln TFC issued Sept13
Pakistan Refinery Limited | TFC I: PKR 500mln issued
Aug13
Pakistan Refinery Limited | TFC II: PKR 500mln issued
Aug13
Maple Leaf Cement Factory Limited | Restructured Sukuk:
PKR 8bln Sukuk restructured Sept12
[Withdrawn3 ratings] Issuers / Instruments
1.
Engro Fertilizers | Sukuk II: PKR 1,500mln TBI
1TBI:
To be issued
2CY13
AAA
A
A
BB+
Last Instrument Ratings
A
had 15 Instrument Redemptions
PACRA’s Rating Universe – Asset Management
Ratings
FIGURE IX
SNAPSHOT - Fund Stability Ratings Composition &
Growth
(Dec11- Dec13)
80%
12
12
11
11
60%
9
50%
9
10
8
6
40%
30%
4
20%
2
10%
0
0%
Dec10 Jun11 Dec11 Jun12 Dec12 Jun13 Dec13
AM1
AM3
AM5
AM2
AM4
All Asset Manager Ratings
37
80%
70%
60%
31
39
39
40
35
33
30
28
25
50%
20
40%
15
30%
FIGURE VIII
SNAPSHOT - Mutual Fund Rankings
Composition & Growth
(Dec10 - Dec13)
90%
27
80%
70%
27
28
29
29
40
35
30
27
60%
20
50%
40%
30%
10
20%
10%
20%
10
10%
5
0%
0
Dec10
jun11 Dec11 Jun12 Dec12 Jun13 Dec13
AAA(f)
AA(f)
BBB(f)
Total
A(f)
0
0%
Dec10 Jun11 Dec11 Jun12 Dec12 Jun13 Dec13
1-star
3-star
5-star
2-star
4-star
All Rankings
Ratings (Nos.)
70%
Ratings category Share (%)
12
42
90%
12
Ratings (Nos.)
Ratings category Share (%)
90%
100%
45
100%
14
100%
Ratings category Share (%)
FIGURE VIII
SNAPSHOT - Asset Manager Ratings Composition
& Growth
(Dec10- Dec13)
Credit Risk – Rise & Fall
A Rise in Credit Risk
Ratings
Entities
New
(Action date)
Previous
Shaheen
Insurance
Company
BBB(01Aug13)
A-
3
National
Refinery
AA+
(23Oct13)
AAA
1
Notches
Pakistan’s Rating Universe - Snapshot
FIGURE XI
Pakistan Ratings Universe Growth
(CY09 - CY13 )
DCRA Ratings (Nos.)
Ratings (Nos.)
100
85
80
60
57
20
40
20
0
42
7 12
5
AAA
PACRA
37
43
AA
A
JCR-VIS
16
11
BBB
5
27
4
1
0
0
0
BB - B CCC - C
Universe end-CY13
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
430
422
419
179
172
407 187
410 188
190
420
410
400
390
209
381
228
223
231
232
380
370
360
CY09
CY10
PACRA
CY11
JCR-VIS
CY12
CY13
Universe
Universe Ratings (Nos.)
FIGURE X
Pakistan Entity Ratings Universe Compostion in
Rating Categories
(As @ Dec 31, 2013 )
Pakistan’s Rating Universe – Classes of Ratings
FIGURE XI
Pakistan Ratings Universe Compostion in Rating
Classes
(As @ Dec 31, 2013 )
Ratings (Nos.)
100
75
42
50
46
21
25
27
0
35
11
18
15
11
24
JCR
42
27
13
24
32
PACRA
25
2
7
Thank You !
UPCOMING:
ISSUE IV; August 2014