Transcript Developing an Integrated Coercion Strategy:

Nuclear Weapons:
From
the Cold War to the Present
The views expressed are solely those of the author and do not
represent the views of the Air Force Research Institute
Dr. Adam B. Lowther
Research Faculty
Air Force Research Institute
The Atom Bomb
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The Manhattan Project (1939-1946)
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Hiroshima and Nagasaki
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Continued
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Schelling v. Kahn
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V.
Counter-force v. Counter-value
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Deterrence
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• Deterrence: The prevention from action by fear of
the consequences. Deterrence is a state of mind
brought about by the existence of a credible
threat of unacceptable counter-action.—DoD
• “Deterrence, on the other hand, involves
preventing an action that has not yet materialized
from occurring in the first place.”—Byman,
Waxman, and Larson
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Dissuasion
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• “This report defines dissuasion as actions taken to
increase the target’s perception of the anticipated costs
and/or decrease its perception of the likely benefits from
developing, expanding, or otherwise undesirable from a
US perspective.”—Krepinevich and Martinage
• “Dissuasion is the ‘flip side’ of the popular
recommendation that the U.S. strategic force choices be
informed by the expectation that U.S. restraint would
inspire opponents’ restraint, a la the action-reaction
model. …With dissuasion, the contention is that in some
cases active U.S. acquisition policies rather than inaction
will discourage opponents from competition…”—Payne
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Denial
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• “The fear of being captured or killed may serve as
a punitive threat, and the expectation of serious
operational challenges with the prospect of
mission failure may lead an opponent to another
course, or to postpone its action until success
seems more likely—i.e., deterrence by denial.”—
Payne
• “Denying the target the possibility of achieving
benefits can compel abandonment of only those
specific interests.”—Pape
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Threat
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• “The power to hurt.”—Schelling
• “An expression of intention to inflict evil, injury, or
damage.”—Webster
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Compellence
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• “Compellence involves attempts to reverse an
action that has already occurred or to otherwise
overturn the status quo, such as evicting an
aggressor from territory it has just conquered or
convincing a proliferating state to abandon its
existing nuclear weapons program.”—Byman,
Waxman, and Larson
• “The threat that compels rather than deters often
requires that the punishment be administered
until the other acts, rather than if he acts.”-Schelling
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Shaping Model
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Possible Examples
Precision Strike
Cyber
Public Diplomacy
Dissuasion
NMD
Nuclear Strike
Invasion
Assassination
Denial
Threat
Compellence
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Means
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Global Situational Awareness
Active and Passive Defense
Global Strike
Force Projection
Strategic Communication
Denial
Dissuasion
Threat
ISR/Spacelift
Air Refueling and Airlift
Compellence
Information Operations
Counter air, land, sea, and space
Strategic Attack, Special Operations, Air Refueling
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Abolitionists
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• The Cold War is over. The United States must reduce
and eliminate its nuclear arsenal.
• Terrorism is the real threat facing the United States, not
nuclear war.
• As long as there are nuclear weapons there is a threat of
accidental detonation, miscalculation leading to war, and
proliferation.
• Conventional PGMs can accomplish the same objectives
as nuclear weapons.
• 1,000 is enough.
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Modernizers
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•
•
•
•
•
•
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Every President since George H. W. Bush has revised American
nuclear weapons policy (START, SORT, de-alerting bombers, etc…)
•
1991—24,000
•
2009—5,400
•
2010—2,200-1,700
Terrorism is the most recent threat, but not a threat to sovereignty.
There has never EVER been an accidental detonation, nuclear war
from miscalculation, or transfer of nuclear weapons.
Conventional weapons do not achieve the same psychological effect
as nuclear weapons.
Nuclear weapons cause their owners to become risk averse, not risk
acceptant. (India v. Pakistan)
No nuclear powers have ever fought one another.
Nuclear weapons are inanimate objects; they have no moral standing.
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Dr. Strangelove
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Video
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