Transcript Mount Rainier Evacuation Plan

Mount Rainier Evacuation Plan
CPT Cardy Moten III, USA
LT Volkan Sozen, Turkish Army
Outline
 Background
 Problem
 Assumptions
 Model Overview
 Results
 Further Research
 Questions
Background
• Pierce County
• Mount Rainier
• Lahars
• Volcanic Mudflows
• Can occur with or without an
eruption
• Examples
• Mount Saint Helens (1980)
• Columbia (1985)
• Africa (2012)
Background
• Impact
• Major residential areas
inhabitable
• Portions of I-5 and other state
roads inaccessible
• Port of Tacoma
• 75% of goods for Eastern
and Central US
• 70% of consumer goods
for Alaska
Problem
• Short term (No Eruption)
• Early warning from lahar
detection system only
• Analyze total number not
evacuated
• Given:
• 2 hours
• 43,395 vehicles
• Varying lahar travel times
Problem
• Long term (Eruption)
• Analyze total required
evacuation time
• Given:
• 727,635 evacuees
• Various warning horizons
• Same evacuees
Simplifying Assumptions
 All households have one vehicle for evacuation
 Total passengers per vehicle was an average of four
 Transportation routes will be utilized to max capacity with serious
gridlock.
 Some personnel will evacuate even if they aren’t in danger,
causing an uptick in network utilization.
Short-Term Scenario
Network Overview
Lahar travel time in minutes from time of detection
Seattle
Simplified Graph
Short Term Evacuation Scenario
Renton
Safe Node
Roadway
Transit Node
Kent
Gig Harbor
N
Evacuation Node
Federal Way
Auburn
Tacoma
Sumner
Puyallup
Enumclaw
Buckley
Wilkeson
Orting
Graham
Yelm
Greenwater
Carbonado
Mckenna
Lacey
Eatonville
Mount
Rainier
Alder
Ashford
Elbe
Packwodd
Randle
Morton
Castle Rock
Long-Term Scenario
Seattle
Renton
Roadway
Kent
N
Gig Harbor
Federal Way
Auburn
Tacoma
Sumner
Puyallup
Enumclaw
Buckley
Wilkeson
Orting
Graham
Yelm
Greenwater
Carbonado
Mckenna
Lacey
Eatonville
Mount
Rainier
Alder
Ashford
Elbe
Packwodd
Randle
Morton
Castle Rock
Seattle
Simplified Graph
Long Term Evacuation Scenario
Renton
Safe Node
Roadway
Transit Node
Kent
Gig Harbor
N
Evacuation Node
Federal Way
Auburn
Tacoma
Sumner
Puyallup
Enumclaw
Buckley
Wilkeson
Orting
Graham
Yelm
Greenwater
Carbonado
Mckenna
Lacey
Eatonville
Mount
Rainier
Alder
Ashford
Elbe
Packwodd
Randle
Morton
Castle Rock
Model Overview
• Modeled for min cost flow
• Used time layered format
Time = n+2
1,0,∞
• Only major state and
interstate roads for edges
Time = n+1
Time = n
• Considered lahar reach time
for each city
End
Model Overview
• Values on edges are
(C,LB,UB):
1,0,∞
Time = n+2
Time = n+1
Time = n
End
• C = Travel times
• Lower Bound(LB) = 0
• Upper Bound(UB)=Edge
capacity
• 30 vehicles for state
roads
• 80 vehicles for
interstate
• Total population for
end node
Congestion
Model Overview
 Short-term evacuation graph (small model)
 80 time layers
 6,247 nodes
 14,118 edges
 Long-term evacuation graph(large model)
 1000 time layers
 80,081 nodes
 295,486 edges
Short-Term Evacuation
Results w/o Interdicion
 Undirected Travel Lanes
 Could not evacuate a total of 13
cities.
 Percentage of households
stranded was 45%
 Network Design
 Directed Travel Lanes
 Met demand for all danger
areas except 15% of
Puyallup’s population
 Not all of Puyallup’s citizens
live near the Puyallup river
 Recommend opposite traffic
flow on 33 roads
Puyallup
River
Seattle
Simplified Graph
Undirected Travel
Short Term Evacuation Scenario
Renton
Safe Node
Roadway
Transit Node
Kent
Gig Harbor
N
Evacuation Node
Federal Way
Auburn
Tacoma
Sumner
Puyallup
Enumclaw
Buckley
Wilkeson
Orting
Graham
Yelm
Greenwater
Carbonado
Mckenna
Lacey
Eatonville
Mount
Rainier
Alder
Ashford
Elbe
Packwodd
Randle
Morton
Castle Rock
Seattle
Simplified Graph
Directed Travel
Short Term Evacuation Scenario
Renton
Safe Node
Roadway
Transit Node
Kent
Gig Harbor
N
Evacuation Node
Federal Way
Auburn
Tacoma
Sumner
Puyallup
Enumclaw
Buckley
Wilkeson
Orting
Graham
Yelm
Greenwater
Carbonado
Mckenna
Lacey
Eatonville
Mount
Rainier
Alder
Ashford
Elbe
Packwodd
Randle
Morton
Castle Rock
Interdiction Model Results
 Interdicted short-term plan
 Two-way travel only
 Attacks isolated personnel
in:
 Puyallup
 Sumner
# of Interdictions
1
2
3
4
5
6
Attacked Edge
Puyallup-South Hill
Puyallup-ValleyAveNW
Puyallp-Waller
Sumner-ValleyAveNW
Sumner-EdgewoodE
Sumner-OrtingHWY
Stranded Vehicles
# of Inaccessable Roads versus
# of Stranded Vehicles
20000
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
1
2
3
# of Interdictions
4
5
6
Long-Term Evacuation
Results
 No Interdiction
 Total evacuation time is 15 hours
 Total-run time for the model took 24 minutes
 Interdiction
 Best attack was to shut off route to Castle rock in the south
 Total evacuation time is 16.1 hours
 Total run-time for the model took 86 minutes
Seattle
Simplified Graph
Long Term Evacuation Scenario
Renton
Safe Node
Roadway
Transit Node
Kent
Gig Harbor
N
Evacuation Node
Federal Way
Auburn
Tacoma
Sumner
Puyallup
Enumclaw
Buckley
Wilkeson
Orting
Graham
Yelm
Greenwater
Carbonado
Mckenna
Lacey
Eatonville
Mount
Rainier
Alder
Ashford
Elbe
Block
here
Packwodd
Randle
Morton
Castle Rock
Further Research
 Emplace more roadblocks on the long-term scenario
 Conduct a fine-grain analysis on the short-term evacuation of
Puyallup
 Minimize the evacuation of the last household to leave the region
Data
 Evacuation planning data extracted from the Pierce County
Evacuation Plan (2008)
 Population data is from the US Census American Fact Finder
website
http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml
 Highway capacities estimated from thesis submitted by LCDR April
Malveo (2013)
QUESTIONS?