Transcript Folie 1
How to interpret and sell numerical models ? A personal view András Bárdossy Universität Stuttgart Universität Stuttgart Institut für Wasserbau, Lehrstuhl für Hydrologie und Geohydrologie Numerical Modelling – Policy Interface Workshop 12. March 2007 Universität Stuttgart Modelling • Mathematical description of a natural system N M – Abstraction – Reduction • Purpose of modelling – Decision support – Control – Specific problem solving (also as part of a chain) • Realization – Computer programs • User friendly • Expert use Universität Stuttgart Institut für Wasserbau, Lehrstuhl für Hydrologie und Geohydrologie Numerical Modelling – Policy Interface Workshop 12. March 2007 Universität Stuttgart Modelling 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Need – problem Solution ? Technical questions Quantification (Models) Choice or decision Acceptance (or not) Universität Stuttgart 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Public or institutions General experts Specialists Institutions Public Institut für Wasserbau, Lehrstuhl für Hydrologie und Geohydrologie Numerical Modelling – Policy Interface Workshop 12. March 2007 Universität Stuttgart • Experience of more then 25 years in developing and applying numerical models – Non-University Research – Consulting – Different Universities • Theoretical orientation Universität Stuttgart Institut für Wasserbau, Lehrstuhl für Hydrologie und Geohydrologie Numerical Modelling – Policy Interface Workshop 12. March 2007 Universität Stuttgart Universität Stuttgart Institut für Wasserbau, Lehrstuhl für Hydrologie und Geohydrologie Numerical Modelling – Policy Interface Workshop 12. March 2007 Universität Stuttgart Universität Stuttgart Institut für Wasserbau, Lehrstuhl für Hydrologie und Geohydrologie Numerical Modelling – Policy Interface Workshop 12. March 2007 Universität Stuttgart Universität Stuttgart Institut für Wasserbau, Lehrstuhl für Hydrologie und Geohydrologie Numerical Modelling – Policy Interface Workshop 12. March 2007 Universität Stuttgart Models developed 1. Computer model for the calculation of surface runoff, erosion, N and P transport in small catchments • • • • Rainfall runoff model Universal soil loss equation N and P model MS-DOS for PCs Universität Stuttgart Institut für Wasserbau, Lehrstuhl für Hydrologie und Geohydrologie Numerical Modelling – Policy Interface Workshop 12. March 2007 Universität Stuttgart Models developed 1. Computer model for the calculation of surface runoff, erosion, N and P transport in small catchments • • • • • • • Rainfall runoff model Universal soil loss equation N and P model MS-DOS for PCs Complicated in use and theory Trying to solve too much Need from above FAO Government project Universität Stuttgart Institut für Wasserbau, Lehrstuhl für Hydrologie und Geohydrologie Numerical Modelling – Policy Interface Workshop 12. March 2007 Universität Stuttgart Models developed 2. Forecasting water demand in a catchment for reservoir operation • • • Fuzzy-rule based model Using meteorological forecasts MS-DOS for PCs Universität Stuttgart Institut für Wasserbau, Lehrstuhl für Hydrologie und Geohydrologie Numerical Modelling – Policy Interface Workshop 12. March 2007 Universität Stuttgart Models developed 2. Forecasting water demand in a catchment for reservoir operation • • • • • • Fuzzy-rule based model Using meteorological forecasts MS-DOS for PCs Unusual from theoretical viewpoint Clear question and answer Need from user Problem solving Universität Stuttgart Institut für Wasserbau, Lehrstuhl für Hydrologie und Geohydrologie Numerical Modelling – Policy Interface Workshop 12. March 2007 Universität Stuttgart Models developed 3. Stochastic simulation of wastewater quality parameters with respect to sampling strategies • • • Bootstrap based Using observational data MS-DOS and Windows for PCs Universität Stuttgart Institut für Wasserbau, Lehrstuhl für Hydrologie und Geohydrologie Numerical Modelling – Policy Interface Workshop 12. March 2007 Universität Stuttgart Models developed 3. Stochastic simulation of wastewater quality parameters with respect to sampling strategies • • • • • • • Bootstrap based Using observational data MS-DOS and Windows for PCs Unusual from theoretical viewpoint Clear question and answer User inconvenience for input was tolerated Need from user Problem solving Universität Stuttgart Institut für Wasserbau, Lehrstuhl für Hydrologie und Geohydrologie Numerical Modelling – Policy Interface Workshop 12. March 2007 Universität Stuttgart Models developed 4. Forecasting the heart rate for pacemaker control • • • • Fuzzy rule based system (Extremely fast) Using different sensors Developed in team with experts (Medical and Hardware) Hardware realization Universität Stuttgart Institut für Wasserbau, Lehrstuhl für Hydrologie und Geohydrologie Numerical Modelling – Policy Interface Workshop 12. March 2007 Universität Stuttgart Models developed 4. Forecasting the heart rate for pacemaker control • • • • Fuzzy rule based system (Extremely fast) Using different sensors Developed in team with experts (Medical and Hardware) Hardware realization • Other products available on the market (costs for change are high) Demand from above (EC) • Universität Stuttgart Institut für Wasserbau, Lehrstuhl für Hydrologie und Geohydrologie Numerical Modelling – Policy Interface Workshop 12. March 2007 Universität Stuttgart Models developed 5. Stochastic simulation of precipitation in high temporal reolution • • • Simulate annealing (MCMC) based algorithm (publ. 1998) Requires regionalization of parameters Not sophisticated user interface Universität Stuttgart Institut für Wasserbau, Lehrstuhl für Hydrologie und Geohydrologie Numerical Modelling – Policy Interface Workshop 12. March 2007 Universität Stuttgart Models developed 5. Stochastic simulation of precipitation in high temporal reolution • • • Simulate annealing (MCMC) based algorithm (publ. 1998) Requires regionalization of parameters Not sophisticated user interface • • • Need as part of the urban channel planning chain Many users served by a few centres (1 / State) Good division of tasks Universität Stuttgart Institut für Wasserbau, Lehrstuhl für Hydrologie und Geohydrologie Numerical Modelling – Policy Interface Workshop 12. March 2007 Universität Stuttgart • Demand is crucial for success – User demand and not only political – Filling gaps is often needed • Chain for decision making • Specific question – Users do not like to change running models – systems • Models are needed if answers are not clear – Complicated systems + work trivial statements ??? – Complicated systems + work useless statements ??? • Boundary conditions have to be included • Conditions for implementation should be considered Universität Stuttgart Institut für Wasserbau, Lehrstuhl für Hydrologie und Geohydrologie Numerical Modelling – Policy Interface Workshop 12. March 2007 Universität Stuttgart • Complexity of a model is not a problem – The user should • Understand the idea • Trust the method (advantages and disadvantages should be communicated!) • Uncertainty !! Decision • User friendliness is an advantage – Combination of expert knowledge and computer programming profession • User interface – programmer • Main method – specialist • Good communication Universität Stuttgart Institut für Wasserbau, Lehrstuhl für Hydrologie und Geohydrologie Numerical Modelling – Policy Interface Workshop 12. March 2007 Universität Stuttgart • Development of methods and models is one of our academic duties • Advanced methods might sell or might only help for future development Preparedness • Communication of knowledge • Open for listening to problems • Concentrate on strengths technical realizations reasonable task partition Universität Stuttgart Institut für Wasserbau, Lehrstuhl für Hydrologie und Geohydrologie Numerical Modelling – Policy Interface Workshop 12. March 2007 Universität Stuttgart Thanks ! Universität Stuttgart Institut für Wasserbau, Lehrstuhl für Hydrologie und Geohydrologie Numerical Modelling – Policy Interface Workshop 12. March 2007 Universität Stuttgart • • • • Uncertainty of the rating curve Geostatistical interpolation using external information Statistical evaluation of groundwater level changes Computer program for the derivation of fuzzy rules from observational data • Rainfall-runoff model for the German part of the Rhine catchment • Classification of atmospheric circulation patterns using fuzzy rules • Downscaling precipitation and Temperature for climate change scenarios Universität Stuttgart Institut für Wasserbau, Lehrstuhl für Hydrologie und Geohydrologie Numerical Modelling – Policy Interface Workshop 12. March 2007 Universität Stuttgart Universität Stuttgart Institut für Wasserbau, Lehrstuhl für Hydrologie und Geohydrologie Numerical Modelling – Policy Interface Workshop 12. March 2007 Universität Stuttgart