Transcript Policy Update and Transition Strategy

The Role of Science
in a National Policy for the Oceans,
Coasts and the Great Lakes
Robert B. Gagosian
July 16, 2009
Ocean Leadership Members
Full Members (46/12)
Associates (31)
Affiliate (6)
National Ocean Policy
• Oceans are facing a myriad of perturbations not
seen for millions of years, perhaps ever. The
impacts on ecosystems and human society are
enormous. Science must play a critical role
informing wise policy and management decisions.
• “We will restore science to its rightful place” –
President Barack Obama, January 20, 2009
• A national policy “established, guided and
continuously validated by science” that ensures
protection, maintenance, and restoration of
oceans, our coasts and the Great Lakes.
Role of Science in a National Ocean Policy
Wise Decisions Require The Best Science Available
In order to sustainably manage our ocean ecosystems,
mitigate impacts from climate change and adapt to a
rapidly changing environment, we need the capacity to
predict and reduce the risks and vulnerabilities of future
ocean scenarios:
 And that requires models based on sound science
which requires physical, biological & chemical data
which are obtained from observations
• Remote (satellites, radar)
• In Situ (buoys, autonomous vehicles,
vessels, stream & tide gauges)
Key Climate Change Impacts
Three fundamental areas where scientific
information is insufficient to accurately forecast
the size, scope and time scales of changes
occurring in the ocean include:
1. Changes in Ocean Productivity
2. Opening of the Arctic System
3. Forecasting Sea-Level Rise
Changes in Ocean Productivity
Ocean productivity is
being affected by
changes to the
physics, biology and
chemistry of the
ocean, with
implications for CO2
uptake.
Changes driven by:
• Acidification
• Warming waters
• Altered currents/upwelling
• Influx of fresh water
• Over-fishing
• Aquaculture
• Agricultural & urban runoff
Opening of the Arctic
• Arctic is particularly sensitive to climate change.
• Loss of sea ice will have a huge impact on
Earth’s energy budget and has tremendous
international implications.
• Poor understanding of ocean-ice interactions &
ability to accurately predict rate of glacial,
permafrost or sea-ice loss.
• Lack of sufficient instrumentation for real-time
observations.
Sea-Level Rise
• Could be 1 m or
more depending on
ice sheet melt
• 0.5 meter rise
translates into a 100
year flood occurring
annually
• There will be further
loss of protective
wetlands &
penetration of salinity
into estuaries and
coastal aquifers
• Economic and social
disruptive impacts
are tremendous
Offshore Renewable Energy Development
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Wave
Currents
Tidal
Thermal Conversion
Wind
•
•
•
All promising technologies – mostly in their infancy
Need for ecosystem assessments for facility siting
Overlapping and competing federal and state regulations
Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning
Science can assist in development of sustainable
management regimes for the future use of ocean and
coastal resources.
• Identify existing
uses, risk areas,
and military
exclusions
• Define current
physical,
chemical and
biological
parameters
• AND forecast
future ocean
conditions with
new uses.
Existing Framework for Ocean Policy
Framework for Ocean Coordination
Recommendations
• JSOST has facilitated science collaboration
– e.g. Ocean Research Priorities Plan (being refreshed)
– Need to update structure to meet emerging priorities
• NOPP has successfully managed and funded interagency
science programs
• Budget integration/authority is the weak link
– Need for enhanced role of OMB in the process
– Need for integrated climate budget and corresponding
ocean budget
• Examples of inadequate coordination: climate research,
ocean observations & oceans and human health research
International Collaborations
The oceanic and climate change are global issues that
cannot be addressed unilaterally. They also provide an
opportunity to leverage resources, promote technology
transfer and improve foreign relations.
• Satellites – Opportunities for collaboration/data sharing
• Arctic – Competing interests & claims on resources – yet
shared need for research and monitoring
• Successful International Ocean programs include the
Integrated Ocean Drilling Program and the Census of
Marine Life
Implementation Priorities
1. Ocean Observing System
•
Part of a climate/earth
observing architecture
•
Sustained remote sensing of
ocean topography, sea
surface wind vectors & ocean
color
•
In situ biological & chemical
sensor development &
deployment (e.g. pH)
•
Particular need for Arctic
observing system to monitor
atmosphere-ice-ocean
interactions
Implementation Priorities
2. Ocean Acidification Program
• To monitor, understand and predict impacts on
ecosystems
• pH sensors need to be developed and deployed
in observing systems such as IOOS, OOI & Argo.
• Program to study ecosystem response to
acidification.
• Investigate the interplay between ecosystems and
biogeochemical cycling in an increasingly acidic
ocean.
Implementation Priorities
3. Large-Scale Marine
Ecosystem Studies
•
Emphasize ecosystembased approaches to
management
•
Link coastal & offshore
ocean and terrestrial
watershed ecosystems
•
Require core set of
observing and modeling
systems
•
Need to focus on areas
affected by urban
processes
Implementation Priorities
4. Need for an Integrated Ocean/Climate/Earth
Observation System and Science Budget
•
Existing patchwork of agencies and programs is
insufficient to meet the growing demand for information.
•
No single federal agency has the mission, ability or
resources to develop, build and maintain the required
architecture for a sustained, long-term, global climate
observing and science system.
•
OSTP needs the budget authority to develop, request
and manage a dedicated climate/ocean observation
system and science budget.
Economic Impacts and Jobs
• Information is a commodity – there is a wealth of data in
the ocean that has tremendous economic value.
• Exporting Technology – every nation requires the ability to
acquire, integrate and disseminate environmental
information and will make investments to access the
required technology.
• Protecting lives, property and jobs – the ability to
accurately forecast future conditions based on ocean
parameters such as sea-level has enormous implications
for building sustainable healthy communities.