Transcript Slide 1

Matching VET supply with labour
market demand
Source of data used for matching VET
supply with labour market demand
Florin Gheorghe Mărginean
Head of planning and partnership department
National Centre for TVET Development
1. Forecast of training demand medium and long term perspective
Data source:
Study forecast the demand for professional training in
2013 and 2020 perspective
Study realised in the project co-financed by ESF
“Corelation of the educational supply in VET with labour
market demand”
by
National Centre for TVET Development
and
National Scientific Research Institute for Labour and Social
Protection
Methodological issues
• Forecasting methodology: econometric modeling;
methodology similar to that used by Cambridge Econometrics
in the forecast model used by CEDEFOP
• Three projection scenarios: pessimistic, moderate, optimistic
• Methodological limitations:
– lack of statistical information at the level of detail required,
gaps in data series due to changes in classifications and
NACE COR, reduced length of time series used in
econometric modeling, etc..
– uncertainty about the medium and long term developments
of the global economic crisis
– The lack of statistical information on the distribution of
employment by economic activity, occupational subgroup
and training areas can introduce substantial errors in
estimating the demand for training.
Methodological issues (2)
• Potential demand
- Potential demand is the number of people estimated to be
necessary for carrying out economic activities in terms of
population employed.This level will be satisfied when the
number of people actually filled is equal to the estimated
need of the population employed, in other cases we have a
deficit or surplus to the needs of the population employed.
- Potential demand should not to be confused with employment
(although it apparently identical or similar values ​to it) and
should not be considered as effective demand in terms of
vacancies.
- Potential demand forecasts provide benchmarks for the
evolution of demand structure analysis by sectors,
occupations, skill levels, training areas.
Methodological issues (3)
• Replaced demand
the number of jobs resulting from the withdrawal of participants
in economic activity due to retirements and other natural losses
• Jobs available
the amount beteen the change of potential demand (changes
from the beginning of the period under review) and replacement
demand. Potential changes in demand to start the period under
review (year) is, increase or decrease the potential demand from
year to year. This indicator can take positive values if the
employment is growing or employment is declining but the
decrease is smaller in absolute value than demand replaced.
• Estimated demand by training domains
Estimating demand for training in areas of training was based on
potential demand for labor at the junction of its structure
subgroup major occupations NACE Rev2 sections and using a
transfer matrix in areas of training.
Results (exemples)
Forecast available jobs - relevant to the IPT
North-East region , moderate scenario
Vaslui
2020
Suceava
2019
2018
Neamţ
2017
Iasi
2016
Botosani
2015
Bacau
2014
2013
Regiunea NE
2012
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Forecast available jobs by occupation- relevant to the IPT
North-East region , moderate scenario
O
M
2020
K
2019
2018
I
2017
G
-1000
A
B
Tehnicians
Technicians in
in life
physics and
sciences,
engineering
health
C
-800
D
-600
-400
F
G
E
Other
Public
similar
Office
service
occupation servants
servants
tehnicians
E
2015
C
2014
A
2013
-200
H
2016
0
I
200
J
400
K
600
L
Craftsmen
Farmers and
Craftsmen
Craftsmen
and skilled
Workers in Models, workers
and skilled
Craftsmen
and skilled
workers
personal and shop and skilled in
workers in
and skilled
workers in
Precision,
security
market agriculture,
Metal,
workers in
mining and
handicraft,
services
sellers
forestry and
machinery
food
construction
printing
fishing
and related
and related
M
800 2012
N
Operators
machinery
Operators and
Stationary assemblers
and
of
assimilated machinery,
workers
equipment
and other
products
O
Drivers and
mobile
plant
operators
Projection of the potential labor demand by
economic activities - moderate scenario, N-E
region level (no. people)
Other activities of the national economy
Health and social care
Education
Public administration and defense
Real estate
2020
Financial intemediation and insurance
2017
Transport, storage and communications
2015
Hotels and restaurants
2013
Wholesale and retail
2011
Construction
2009
Electricity, gas and water
Manufacturing
Mining
Agriculture, forestry and fisheries
0
100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 900,000
Projection of the potential labor demand by
economic activities - moderate scenario, national
level (no. people)
Other activities of the national economy
Health and social care
Education
Public administration and defense
Real estate
Financial intemediation and insurance
2020
2017
Transport, storage and communications
2015
Hotels and restaurants
2013
Wholesale and retail
2011
2009
Construction
Electricity, gas and water
Manufacturing
Mining
Agriculture, forestry and fisheries
0
100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 900,000
Forecast potential demand structure, the
moderate scenario, the training areas of VET
in the North-East in perspective 2017-2020
Areas of training
Agriculture
Industrial Chemistry
Construction
Trade
Economic
Electric
Electromechanics
Electronic, automation
Wood industry
Food industry
Textile and leather industry
Building materials
Mechanics
Tourism and food
Natural resources and environmental protection
Printing Techniques
Total
%
10,3
0,9
10,4
12,9
12,8
4,4
3,4
3,5
1,5
0,7
9,4
0,8
18,7
7,6
2,6
0,1
100,0
2. Survey in enterprises on labor
demand in the short term perspective
Data source:
Survey in enterprises on labor demand in the short term
perspective (12 month)
Study realised in the project co-financed by ESF
“Corelation of the educational supply in VET with labour
market demand”
by
National Centre for TVET Development
and
National Scientific Research Institute for Labour and
Social Protection
Methodological issues
• Interviews "face to face" with representaives of
companies based on the questionnaire
• Sample of 3836 firms, national and regional
representative, from August 14 to September 14,
2011.
• National maximum permissible error: ± 1.56% at a
confidence level of 95% maximum permissible error
at regional level: ± 4.4% at a confidence level of 95%
• Sampling methodology: probabilistic sample type,
multistage and stratified. Way of achieving
probabilistic sample ensures the presence of all
economic branches and sub- branches, a similar
proportion in the economy.
Results (exemples)
Evolution of number of employees 2008-2011, by size class (percentage dynamic
from year to year, the number last year of 100%) -%
Share of firms with vacancies
(% of firms with vacancies in all companies in the region)
Share of firms with vacancies by economic
activities (% of firms with vacancies from total
companies in each economic activity)
Vacancy rate, by regions (%)
Vacancy rate by the economic sectors
(%)
Distribution of vacancies on the relevant skill areas for technological and
vocational high school (%)
Distribution of vacancies, by level of education required by employers, as
well as the development area (% from total vacancies in each region)
Distribution of vacancies by the number of months they are unoccupied (%)
The reasons for job vacancies in view of employers
(%)
The most important knowledge and skills required
to fill vacancies (%)
Structure of jobs estimated growth on the
horizon of the next 12 months, by level of
education required for employment in
occupations appointed by employers (%)
Distribution jobs estimated increase, by qualification relevant occupations for vocational technical school (%)
Satisfaction companies employing graduates to
their professional qualifications
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