2007 2008

Summary/Future

2009 2010 2011

Re-anal + hind-casts

POAMA-1.5

Evaluation + Applications

POAMA-2 (new initialisation + BAM+ACOM2+increased res+…)

Development Re-analysis and hind-casts Evaluation and Applications

POAMA-3 (Basic ACCESS coupled model + basic coupled assimilation+…)

Development (Coupled model, assimilation, ensemble gen, qc, etc) Re-analysis and hind-casts Eval + applications

POAMA-4 (Improved ACCESS system)

Development (Coupled model, assimilation, ensemble gen, etc) The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

P15b P15a P1 Persistence

NINO 3 (East Pacific) SSTA forecasts

P15b P15a P1 Persistence

Indian Ocean SST Dipole Mode Index

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research Produced by Guomin Wang

Comparison with other centres

Based on 5-member ensemble NINO-3 correlation IOD

Red - ECMWF Green - Sintex Navy - POAMA-2.0

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

SON Rainfall 1982-2006 from POAMA-1.5

Brier Skill Score percentage improvement Forecast for first season NCC operational vs Climo POAMA vs Climatology BUT •Skill disappears after first season •Too emphatic ?

POAMA vs NCC The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

1997 SON Obs 1997 SON POAMA lt 0 2002 SON Obs 2002 SON POAMA lt 0 BUT •Skill disappears after first season The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

1997 vs 2002 SST forecasts

1997 OBS 2002 POAMA at 3 months lead 1997 2002 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

PEODAS

POAMA Ensemble Ocean Data Assimilation System Compress Ensemble

Nudge to central analysis

Perturbed forcing

(Alves and Robert 2005)

ASSIM ASSIM Observations Ensemble OI (

Oke et al 2005)

Covariances from ensemble spread

(3D multi-variate time evolving) The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

Temperature error - comparison with TAO and ECMWF

Temperature

Comparison with TAO Mooring at 140W The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

Surface currents in the Indian Ocean

Correlation of surface U with OSCAR (www.oscar.noaa.gov) PEODAS ECMWF

ECMWF Better due to Altimeter ?

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

POAMA-2

System built and running hind-casts (ready mid 2009)

Improvements:

•New Pseudo Ensemble Kalman Filter for ocean data assimilation (PEODAS) •Ensemble generation based on assimilation ensemble •Increased atmospheric resolution (T63) •Improved physics - reduced tropical SST bias •Built in SST bias correction scheme The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

Future: POAMA-3

Aiming for 2011

Improvements:

•Based on UKMO UM atmospheric model and CABLE land surface •New ocean model (AusCOM/MOM4) with increased resolution •Greenhouse gases •Coupled assimilation (extension of existing PEODAS to coupled model, but assimilated atmospheric data will be reanalyses) •Assimilation of altimeter and SST (?) •Ocean and atmospheric perturbations (based on PEODAS) The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology