Transcript UNDERSTANDING SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY FOR A NEW …

UNDERSTANDING SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
FOR A NEW ECONOMY
J.P.CONTZEN
Instituto Superior Técnico
Lisboa, 21-22 November 2000
INTRODUCTION
The presentation attempts to describe the current and
future role of Science & Technology in the Society of
the 21st Century
Largely inspired by current events, many reflections
based on articles in the daily press of the last months
Balance between general discussion and case studies
Aimed at identifying issues dominating the S&T scene,
outlining possible responses, but raising more
questions than giving definite answers
PLAN OF THE PRESENTATION (1)
Which Society for the 21st Century?
The Role of S&T in this Society:
– Knowledge Creation
– Economic Competitiveness
– Peace and Stability
– Quality of Life
The Position of Europe in S&T
The Actors of Innovation: « The Quadruple Helix »
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PLAN OF THE PRESENTATION (2)
New structures, new interfaces for Innovation in the
next Century:
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The State and Industrial R&D
Reorganising Public R&D Structures
R&D in Industry
Higher Education institutions and Innovation
e-Science and e-technology: new challenges
PLAN OF THE PRESENTATION (3)
S&T and regional development: the application of the
Subsidiarity Principle
S&T and developing countries: a global catastrophe
S&T and Society: between acceptance and rejection:
– Stimulating a better perception of S&T
– Taking into account ethical issues
– Reinforcing the dialogue with stakeholders
Which Society for the 21st Century? (1)
Globally, economic growth will continue to be
sustained in most countries of the world.
THE U.S. GDP has grown from 100 Billion$ in 1950 to
10 000 Billion$ in 2000. In the next ten years, the new
economy will create 10 Million more jobs in the U.S.
Most of the developing countries, except the less
advanced ones (LDC’s), have seen their GNP per
capita growing by 3.6% in the period 1990-1998, 5.4%
for China and India
Which Society for the 21st Century? (2)
Democracy is progressing globally. The civil society
enjoys a greater role in the conduct of World affairs,
than it was the case in the past
The prospect of a global war involving the major
superpowers has faded away, leading to the reduction
of weapons of mass destruction
Some diseases, e.g.poliomyelitis, will be eradicated,
prospects of attenuating impact of others, such as
Alzheimer, do exist.
Which Society for the 21st Century? (3)
Cancer early diagnosis will be improved, new cures for
genetic diseases will be developed
Better care for the elder and disabled will be available
Information and communication technologies will
enable a wider access to knowledge and culture
Cheaper transport will render tourism affordable to
more people
Environmental awareness will further reduce some of
the negative pollution effects
Which Society for the 21st Century? (4)
BUT, as recalled by Hans Küng,
Every hour,1500 children die of hunger related causes
Every month, the world’s economic system adds over
7.5 Billion$ to the debt of the Third World. More than
80 developing countries representing 1.2 Billion
people, have per capita income lower than 10 years
ago. Worldwide, the total population living on less
than 1$ a day has risen from 1.2 Billion in 1987 to
around 1.5 Billion today
Which Society for the 21st Century? (5)
Local conflicts are spreading, leading mostly to
civilian casualties
AIDS is still extending its attack on the world
population, Africa is a disaster area
Every year, an area of tropical forest ¾ the size of
Korea is destroyed and lost
In China, about 20 to 30% of all adult men in a total
population of 1.3 Billion suffer from impotence and
sterility due essentially to stress and environmental
pollution
Which Society for the 21st Century? (6)
In the United Kingdom,the education gap between the
traditional population and immigrants has grown from
9% to 16% between 1992 and 1999
More than 80% of Internet site interrogations are
devoted to sex, compared to less than 6% for learning
The EURO TECH index has won 136% in efficiency but
has lost 1% in value in the last 10 months of this year.
Are we evolving towards « casino capitalism »
(Masayuki Sasaki)?
Which Society for the 21st Century? (5)
Is our world getting really better?
How far are Science and Technology responsible for
the current situation?
How can Science and Technology contribute to a
positive answer to this challenge?
The Role of Science and Technology
How should S&T contribute to a better 21st
Century?
By creating new knowledge
By reinforcing economic competitiveness of all
nations
By improving the quality of life
By guaranteeing peace and stability
Knowledge Creation (1)
Extraordinary expansion of knowledge in the 20th
Century:
90 % of the persons having contributed to scientific
activity since the origin of mankind, are currently alive
No foreseeable plateau in this expansion in spite of
some differing opinions. There is no Frontier to
Science
Significant contribution of Technology to the progress
of basic sciences: space telescopes, accelerators,
supercomputers,…
Knowledge Creation (2)
Fragile balance between the so-called “Big Science”
and the other scientific activities; the extreme case of
the Space Station
Science does not enjoy the capability of self-financing:
how can Science maintain its freedom in this context ?
Albert Einstein expressed in the 1920’s the wish that
’’ Science should be done in isolated communities away
from economic pressures ’’. This wish can no longer be
fulfilled
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Knowledge Creation (3)
New avenues for Science in the 21st Century:
Interdisciplinarity and Non-Linear Thinking
– Enhance interdisciplinarity between natural sciences (e.g.
bio-chips, bio-sensors, membranes, opto-electronics,
molecular computers, hydro gels, organic
electroluminescence displays)
– Same approach to be applied between natural sciences and
humanities.The ’’ Two Cultures ’’ of C.P. Snow will soon be a
reminiscence of the past. As examples: emergence of
cognitive sciences, joint approach to urban management, to
risk prevention and management, ergonomics
Knowledge Creation (4)
Non – linear thinking: complexity should be integrated
into the scientific approach
– Laplace’s demon is definitely dead : nature should
no longer be considered as a huge conservative
and fully deterministic system
– Poincaré’s mathematical work, quantum
mechanics( Max Planck notably) have shaken the
clockwork version of our Universe
Knowledge Creation (5)
– The theory of non linear complex systems opens
new avenues for problem solving in natural
sciences: chaos theory, fuzzy logics, etc . They are
essential for explaining natural phenomena such as
climate change (the « Butterfly effect »)
– It leads also to new approaches to social,
economical and political problems. As Klaus
Mainzer points out « Mono-causality in Politics and
History is a false and dangerous way of linear
thinking «
A simple example of non-linearity
Example of Verhulst’s equation (1845)
Pierre François Verhulst (1804-1849) was a Belgian
mathematician dealing with demographic problems.
He established a simple model of restricted
population growth
X n+1 = a X n ( 1 – X n )
The evolution of X depends strongly on the values of
a and X o . With increasing values of a, it leads to
apparent chaos
Economic Competitiveness (1)
The economic competitiveness of nations relies
increasingly on its mastering of technologies, on its
innovation capability.
The phenomenon of globalisation, the improvement of
living standards have increased the pressure of the
market for new products, processes, services
The rate of technological change is constantly
accelerating, increasing the obsolescence of
marketable goods
Economic Competitiveness (2)
The combination of these factors – globalisation,
improvement of living standards, accelerated
obsolescence - leads to an increasing weight of S&T in
economic competitiveness
Several models can be used to illustrate the role of S&T
in industrial, economic competitiveness. Models
considering several feedback loops should be
preferred to linear models
Increased market globalisation
Stronger Competition
Acceleration of
Technological Change and
Increased Complexity
Pressure for Joint
Norms and
Standards
Increased
Productivity
Increased S/T
Contents in
Products
Increased
R&D Costs
Quick Obsolescence
of Competitive
Advantage
Pressure for Quick
Exploitation of Knowledge and
Development of New Products
Industrial
R&D
Increased
Importance of
Innovation
Accelerated Market
Demand
Requirement for
Simult. Use of Several
Technologies
Economic Competitiveness (3)
There is statistical evidence of the positive impact of
competitiveness-oriented R&D on the economic
performance of firms, as shown in the two following
diagrams, displaying a positive correlation between
BERD – Business Expenditure in R&D – and trade in
high tech products
Economic Competitiveness (4)
A word of caution: a strong R&D effort for economic
competitiveness without an adequate innovation
mechanism can be worthless or at least inefficient.
Innovation is the successful translation of the R&D
results into new products, new processes, new
services, but it should be extended to new
organizational schemes
There are significant examples of industrial firms with
strong R&D achievements, having failed to reap their
benefits when going on the market: Philips in the
Netherlands, Xerox in the U.S.
Economic Competitiveness (5)
Additional issues deserving closer analysis:
– Impact of innovation on employment: innovation
has a direct positive impact on employment in hightech sectors, the effect on medium-tech and lowtech industries does not appear to be so positive in
the short term. The difference is linked to the type
of innovation applied : new or improved products,
or services have an immediate positive effects while
new or improved processes or new organizational
schemes lead frequently to short term negative
effects on employment
Economic Competitiveness (5)
Additional issues deserving closer analysis (follow):
– The importance of the spill-over effect between
industrial sectors. Firms (especially large ones) are
using increasingly the mechanism of spin-in, or
spin-along, in the innovation process, i.e.
benefiting from R&D results developed by firms in
other sectors for their own purposes, as well as
promoting the spin-off of their own work
– As an example, IBM received in 1997, 1 Billion$ in
licensing fees; this is equivalent in financial terms
to the effect of an increase of 25% of its sales
volume
Economic Competitiveness (6)
Additional issues deserving closer analysis (follow):
– The growing importance of extraneous S&T, as
opposed to indigenous S&T, for the innovation
process. A UK Department of Trade and Industry
describes it quite eloquently: “ 95% of World
research are performed outside the UK, how to
benefit from their results?”
Economic Competitiveness (7)
– This leads to the consideration of two types of
innovation: the indigenous “push” innovation and
the extraneous “pull” innovation, leading in turn to
different strategy options with differentiated
mechanisms: valorization of own R&D results or
acquisition of outside knowledge
Peace and Stability (1)
An evolving geopolitical context
– With the end of the cold war, conflicts between
major powers have become less probable
– There is a general reduction in military expenditure.
In the US, the defence budget has decreased from
14% of the GDP in 1954 to 4% of the GDP in 1997
– The concept of performance at any cost is no
longer prevailing; the motto is now « better,
cheaper and faster »
Peace and Stability (2)
BUT
– There is an increased probability of localised
conflicts
– “Rogue States” do not participate in the general
evolution towards arms reduction
– Terrorist groups become more sophisticated in their
actions: potential danger of nuclear, chemical, bioand cyber-terrorism
– There is a strong political pressure for the so-called
“Zero Casualty” War (zero casualty in the engaged
military forces)
Peace and Stability (3)
An evolving economical situation
– S&T were since World War II the key to military
power (radar,sonar, computers, missiles, jet
engines)
– From the 50’s to the mid-80’s, military requirements
have been the engine for technological progress
and a powerful adjuvant for scientific work even in
basic sciences
– The development of Weapons of Mass Destruction nuclear, chemical, biological - and of their delivery
systems, has mobilised scientific disciplines and
advanced technologies on an unprecedented scale
Peace and Stability (4)
– The US Strategic Defence Initiative (“Star War”) was
the last example of a S&T race driven by specific
military objectives
– Since then, the pressure of the civilian market for
new products and processes- cheap but also
reliable, resistant, compact, saving energy - has
become the driving force for technological
advancement. The following diagramme reflects this
evolution
Peace and Stability (5)
Consequences of these evolutions for S&T
The reconversion of a significant fraction of the
military-industrial complex, including its S&T
components, is unavoidable. The challenge of
“transforming swords into ploughshares” is
formidable, especially for the ex Soviet Union.
Peace and Stability (6)
Technological requirements for defence are shifting to
new fields, in view of the « almost casualty-free »
philosophy:
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unmanned military systems
“stealth” systems
cyber warfare technologies
smart weapons with terminal guidance
hypersonic vehicles (propulsion, aerodynamics, materials)
directed-energy weapons, e.g. lasers and high-power
microwave weapons
Peace and Stability (7)
– special weapons for destroying chemical and biological
weapons’ sites
– intelligence data collection, surveillance and
reconnaissance (multispectral sensors, advanced radars,
surveillance satellites, ...)
– advanced Command, Control, Communications , Computers
and Intelligence (C4I) processors
Peace and Stability (8)
The new military philosophy of “better, cheaper and
faster” implies an increased recourse to the civilian
market with the consequences that technologies
become more and more dual use, which in turn leads
to an increased danger of proliferation. The
conflicting objectives of proliferation and market
expansion create increasingly difficult situations.
Southeast Asia is a good geographical example of
such situation. Encryption is a typical case of a
sensitive technology, having at the same time a
important commercial potential
Peace and Stability (9)
The increased preoccupation of Security, i.e.
protecting our increasingly vulnerable Societies
against attacks by “Rogue States” or by terrorist
groups, creates a new technological demand which
might be described as « Counter Proliferation »
This demand can be met by drawing from the large
pool of technologies developed for civilian markets
Peace and Stability (10)
The technologies to be developed should contribute to
prevent or mitigate attacks on an increasingly
vulnerable Society; its growing sophistication leads to
such vulnerability
For the prevention of attacks:
– Development of monitoring, intelligence gathering systems
– Ban on certain types of research and technological
development
– Establishment of « black lists » of sensitive products or
processes
Peace and Stability (11)
For mitigation of attacks:
– Hardening techniques for information and communications
systems
– Detection systems such as bio sensors, accelerated
analytical techniques
– Decontamination techniques
– Bio sheathing
– Systems for crisis management, aid to decision making
including data acquisition, communication, information
processing and display, scenario modelling
Peace and Stability (12)
Extreme natural events such as floods, tempests,
snowstorms, have shown the fragility of the
organisation of our Society by creating large
disruptions in its functioning. The potential danger of
more severe attacks by sophisticated terrorists’
groups reinforces the need for a concerted effort
devoted to technologies aimed at the prevention and
the mitigation of such events
Quality of Life (1)
Two main objectives : Health, Environment
Health :
– Medicine was basically an Art in the past, it has
evolved towards a Science relying heavily on
technologies, not only biotechnologies
– New developments :
• Computer designed drugs
• New diagnostic techniques : X-Ray, NMR,
Scanner, biotech kits, biochips