Transcript National Weather Service 3rd Quarter Review 2001

Office of Hydrologic Development
Gary Carter
Director
NOAA Hydrology Program Manager
October 2004
Together, we develop and deliver valued
science, software and information for river
and water resource forecasts to save lives
and property, manage water resources, and
enhance America’s economy
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NOAA’s National Weather Service
River Forecasting Challenges:
Conceptual Catchment Representation
Rainfall
Evapotranspiration
Infiltration
Fast flow
Soil moisture storage
Slow flow
Percolation
Groundwater storage
Base flow
Total flow
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NOAA’s National Weather Service
National River Forecast System
Historical
Data
Analysis
Calibration
(Hydrologic
and
Hydraulic
Models)
Operational Forecast System (OFS)
Real-Time
Observed
and
Forecast
Data
Analysis and
Data
Assimilation
Hydrologic and
Hydraulic Models
short term
forecasts
current states
Interactive
Forecast
Program (IFP)
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Ensemble Streamflow
Prediction (ESP) System
Analysis
window
Hydrologic
and
Hydraulic
Models
flow
Calibration System (CS)
time
Statistical
Analyses
Probabilistic
Short term to
Extended
Interactive
Adjustments
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NOAA’s National Weather Service
NWS Hydrologic Model Scales
National Products
Major River Basins
Forecast Points
High Resolution Analyses
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NOAA’s National Weather Service
Office of Hydrologic Development
New Products and Forecast Assessment
Software Engineering for Field Operations
Data Collection, Assimilation, and Analysis
Precipitation Estimation Techniques
Hydrologic Modeling Applied Research
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NOAA’s National Weather Service
OHD Hydrology Laboratory
Hydrologic Software Engineering
• 18 Federal and 9 Contract
Employees
Hydrologic Science and Modeling
• 9 Federal and 18 Contract
Employees
Hydrologic Data Systems
• 9 Federal and 6 Contract
Employees
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NOAA’s National Weather Service
Collaborative Hydrologic Research
• Precipitation Estimation
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Princeton University
University of Iowa
City University of New York
National Severe Storms Laboratory
Czech Hydrometeorological Institute
CUAHSI
– University of California, Irvine
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• Hydrologic Modeling
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University of Arizona
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
University of Colorado
University of Central Florida
Hydrologic Research Center
• Information Content
– Colorado State University
GEWEX America’s Prediction Project (GAPP; involves
NOAA’s Office of Global Programs, NCEP’s
Environmental Modeling Center, NASA, Academia, etc.)
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Data assimilation
Parameter estimation
Hydrologic modeling
Ensemble prediction
Forecast verification
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NOAA’s National Weather Service
Science, Software, and
Information Thrusts
Maintain and enhance current hydrologic services
Improve techniques for multisensor precipitation
estimation for river models and flash flood threat
Advance hydraulic modeling and inundation forecast
mapping
Develop ensemble streamflow prediction techniques
for short-term river forecasting
Test high-resolution distributed hydrologic modeling
Implement river forecast verification methodology
Update precipitation frequency studies
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NOAA’s National Weather Service
Web Based Precipitation
Frequency Data Server
All products delivered
electronically (eGov)
• Output suitable for design
documentation
• Point and click user interface
• Graphs and tables
• High quality cartographic maps
• GIS compatible grids
• Documentation
• > 4,000 requests per month
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NOAA’s National Weather Service
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service
Better flood warnings & water
resource forecasts by leveraging:
• observational data from Federal (i.e.,
USGS), state, & local agencies
• higher resolution analyses &
forecast information
• well calibrated river models
• enhanced software engineering
• advanced hydrologic science
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NOAA’s National Weather Service
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service
Major Program Elements
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Description
Outcomes
Flash-Flood Services
• High resolution modeling and decision
support tools
• Improve flash flood lead time and
accuracy
Short- to Long-Term River Forecasts
• Probabilistic streamflow predictions
for 1 day through 3 months
• Low-flow and drought products
Flood-Forecast Mapping
• Prototype at River Forecast Centers
Collaborative Research
• Extramural partnerships
Forecaster Training and Customer
Outreach
• Deliver information and engage new
customers
NOAA’s Hydrology Portal
• Provide nationally consistent
information via the internet
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NOAA’s National Weather Service
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service
Implementation Areas
Areas Completed Through FY 2004 (1,136 Forecast Points)
Areas Covered by FY 2005 National AHPS (386 New Forecast Points)
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NOAA’s National Weather Service
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service
Flood Forecast Mapping
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NOAA’s National Weather Service
Water Resources Challenges
A sustainable and secure society is one that meets its water
needs without destroying the ecosystems upon which it
depends or the prospects of generations yet to come.*
Over the past half-century, the scale and
pace of human influences on fresh water
systems has accelerated rapidly, along
with population and consumption growth.*
Worldwide water demands roughly tripled,
and, fresh water wetlands have diminished
in area by about half.*
At least 20% of Earth’s 10,000
freshwater fish species are now at risk of
extinction or are already extinct.*
*Worldwatch Institute (March 2004)
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Water 2025 - US Department of Interior
(potential water conflict areas; salinity
and international boundary issues)
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NOAA’s National Weather Service
Water Resources Initiative
Objective: Nationally consistent, water and soil condition forecasts delivered via a national digital
database
Outcome: NOAA’s water resources information and forecasts delivered to Federal, academic, and
private sector partners for critical decisions related to:
– Sustainable irrigation
– More efficient power generation
– Sensible, year-long water conservation plans
– Rational allocation and distribution of water
– More cost-effective river commerce
– Protection of threatened and endangered species
– Balanced terrestrial/aquatic watershed management
– Enhanced aquatic habitats
Establishes a central inventory of users (industries, organizations, private sector intermediaries) and
benefits for water resources information
Creates a Community Hydrologic Prediction System for the rapid transfer of collaborative research
into operations
Builds on the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service which delivers river conditions for discrete
points along major rivers
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NOAA’s National Weather Service
CHPS: Service Oriented Architecture
Encapsulation of data and algorithms makes it simpler
to replace or insert new modules
Avoids central rebuild of entire system
Time from research to operations is reduced because
adding new algorithm or data service does not impact
existing services – regression testing minimized
Streamlined process to work with outside groups on new
capabilities
Direct access to new hydrologic models and water
quality modelling expertise within other agencies
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NOAA’s National Weather Service
Water Resources Vision:
Integrated Products and Services
High-resolution Gridded Water Resources Applications
Product Suite
Drought Mitigation
Flood Potential
• Precipitation
• Snowpack Properties
• Soil Moisture
Flood Management
Transportation
• Groundwater
Emergency
Management
• Runoff
NOAA
Water Allocation Federal Agencies
• Evaporation
• River Flow
• Surface Storage
Partners
Agriculture
Ecosystems
Management
Tribal Agencies
State Agencies
Local Agencies
Private Sector
Academia
Research
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NOAA’s National Weather Service