Transcript Planning Water Scenarios

Planning Water Scenarios
Yoginder K. Alagh
Introduction
• Water Demand in the Agricultural Sub Model:
Iterative Procedures; Demand, population,
income, income redistribution:Supply Modelling
is on land, water and technology:conservative
assumptions.(origin in food scarcity so fail safe
planning)
• Long Term Modelling: little attention in futures
scenarios: but in work of The Commission on
Long Term Perspectives, population, land and
water projections emerging from planning and
agro-climatic perspectives
Demand Modelling
• Demand Modelling in Indian Planning is done by preparing income
and price elasticities. Price elasticities are estimated by Complete
Demand Systems. This system was developed by the Task Force on
Minimum Needs and Effective Demand which developed India’s
Poverty Line in the Seventies. It was chaired by the present author
and is still in use. Income elasticities are developed using best fitting
Engel Curves.
• The recommendations of the Alagh Task Force were based on one
of the most detailed demand and income distribution studies done
anywhere in the world. Taking account of household budgetary
survey data, price information and aggregate consumption patterns,
it developed the income and price response of both poor and rich
households separately in rural and urban areas. This work started a
tradition of econometric investigation which has continued { Table 1
below gives some recent estimates. )
Econometric Price Elasticities
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Table 1.
Price Elasticities: 1998
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Commodity
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Cereals -0.530
-0.161
-0.430
-0.099
Edible oils-0.794
-0.589
-0.799
-0.417
Sugar -0.941
-0.800
-0.740
-0.294
Source: Ravi, C. (2001), Complete Demand System,
Welfare and Nutrition: An Analysis of Indian
Consumption Data, Phd dissertation, Centre for
Economic and Social Studies, Hyderabad
Rural
Urban
Below Poverty Line Above Poverty Line Below Poverty above povty
Drivers
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In this method the demand drivers are:
Population Projections
Income Growth
Redistribution of Income: Anti poverty programmes
For econometric details see
Government of India, Planning Commission, PPD, Report of the
Task Force on Projections of Minimum Needs and Effective
Consumption Demand, Manager of Publications, Delhi, 1979.
• A more formal presentation is given in a model of growth in a fairly
well known feschtrift to Jan Tinbergen edited by Cohen, Cornillise,
Teekens and Thorbecke.See Y.K.Alagh, S.P.Kashyap and
G.V.S.N.Murthy,Policy Modelling for Planning in India, in S.I.Cohen,
P.A.Cornillise, R.Teekens and E. Thorbecke, The Modelling of
Socio-Economic Planning Processes, Gower, Aldershot, 1984, pp.
59-90..
A Typical Exercise!!
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Table 10:
Projected Food Requirements and Production during 2000 to 2020
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YearPopulation Food Demand
(1)
(2)
(3)
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2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
1012.66
1087.46
1152.16
1211.67
1271.17
188.5
202.3
214.3
225.7
236.6
Net Food Demand AdditionalDemand
(4)
(5) (mn. Tonnes)
179.7
192.5
205.1
217.9
230.6
8.8
9.9
9.1
7.4
5.9
A Scenario
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Another Way
Food
We have obtained projected figures of net food production (i.e., by excluding
the amount used for cattle feed, seeds and waste from gross food production)
by assuming that the average rate of growth in agricultural production
observed during the period from 1971 to 1999 would persist in future years.
Comparisons of projected net food production figures with those of food
requirement calculated, as explained in the footnote of Table 10, for the
projected population shows that there will be a deficit in food production of the
order of 8 to 9 million tonnes. This deficit, however, reduces to 6 million
tonnes towards the end of the projection period.
:
Food requirement norm is based on 2250 calories daily per capita, a norm
recommended by FAO as well as by the National Commission on Agriculture
for the developing countries (Bhatia 1983). This implies a per capita
requirement of 186 Kg. per year.
Projected food production figures were obtained by extrapolating using linear
trend growth obtained from production data from 1971 to 1999.
The AGRICULTURAL Sub Model
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This was built in days of food security concerns, but its structure is
still there in the Technical Note to the Plans. It should be understood
as a method of reasoning since ideas change slowly
In the Seventies think tanks( See Keith Griffin, 1971 and Francine
Frankel, 1971 ) and the Brettonwoods institutions had an extremely
dim view of India’s agricultural and growth prospects. At the IDS
Sussex, Paul Streeten and Michael Lipton also argued that India had
dim medium term growth prospects since agriculture would lead to a
wage goods constraint. The initial spurt of grain growth had petered
out and the green revolution was seen as a misnomer . India’s grain
production was projected to go upto 116 million tonnes in 1973/74 and
then to 140 million tonnes by the end seventies. But after reaching 108
million tonnes in 1971, it was ranging between 101 to 104 million
tonnes in the early seventies. It was at this time that policy making in
India focussed on priority in resource allocation to agriculture with
priorities set at the level of the Prime Minister Indira Gandhi who saw
food security as central issue. The Planning Commission produced its
first Agricultural Sub-Model .(with the present author organising the
effort ) and this model made conservative assumptions on land
reserves and productivity assumptions so that resource allocation for
agriculture got high priority in the investment budget.
Experience and Methods
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Features of Indian agricultural experience in the early 1970s ( the PPDJNU study by Bhalla and Alagh used District level data to work out
sources of growth ) were used for Indian agricultural policy making
and planning. Therefore the first "Agricultural Sub-Model" of the Fifth
Five Year Plan (1974-79) prepared in 1975 argued:
that State level data corroborates the findings of earlier disaggregative
studies that in certain regions of the country foodgrains growth is
primarily explained by factors, such as irrigation on multiple cropping,
while in other pockets it is due to the water-seed-fertilizers technology.
(See Alagh, 1979 in GOI, PPD, 1979, p. 22).
and again for IRRIGATION
“ growth of gross irrigated area is also given a critical role in
determining the growth of gross cropped area as in the National
Commission on Agriculture's Report.... For the country as a whole and
for all crops it was estimated that a one per cent increase in irrigated
area would lead to a 0.20 per cent increase in gross cropped area....
The estimate of increase in gross cropped area which is derived from
the emphasis on irrigation, using past behaviour as indicated above
would yield a growth rate of 0.8 per cent per annum in the Fifth Five
Year Plan and upto 1980/81 and by about 0.6 per cent per annum upto
1988/89. The given estimate is considered to be feasible. (GOI, PPD,
1979, pp. 22-23).”
Land and Irrigation
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It can be briefly recapitulated here that this strategy essentially consists of
studies of past production patterns and with respect to certain behavioural and
structural constraints, such as cropped area and its allocation, the continuance
of past patterns is postulated in order to preserve a realistic frame for the
supply projections. However, the emphasis in the planning aspect is on the
provision of critical inputs which would sustain the generation of additional
production potential. Thus, as compared to earlier exercises, the gross cropped
area is now postulated to increase only by 0.7 per cent compound per annum.
Increase in cropped area has shown a strong relationship, through multiple
cropping, with the provision of irrigation facilities. The growth of irrigation
facilities at the rate of approximately 4 per annum compound in the Fifth Five
Year Plan and beyond is bound to sustain the increase in cropping area being
postulated at present. Based on technical advice and study of the experience
from the last few years, the area to be brought under the high yielding varieties
of seeds has been carefully postulated. The yield levels by each crop under high
yielding variety irrigated land, other irrigated land and unirrigated lands
postulated to remain at the level estimated by the National Sample Survey's
crop cutting experiments for the triennium 1970/ 71 to 1972/73. For the spread of
irrigation facilities and achieving the targets sufficient funds have to be
provided. Similar attention has to be paid to minor irrigation. The current status
of ground water exploration has to be accelerated. In many arid regions of the
country, such effort has been lacking in the past.
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They production potential is estimated through this methodology. (GOI, PPD, 1979, P. 47)
Policies
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The importance given to these planning studies was shown by the fact
that in 1975, after the budget, funds for completing ten irrigation
projects and for financing a ground water extraction programme in a
supplementary allocation in May 1975. The Indian policy makers,based
on past sources of growth studies confidently predicted in 1975 that
the Indian farmer, once given support would take the country’s grain
production to 125 million tones in 1978/79. Fertiliser consumption
which had gone down after the energy crisis to 2.8 million tones was
postulated to rise to 5 million tonnes. These targets were treated with
derision and the comments outside India were that it was only the long
haired boys in the Indian Planning Commission who believed them. It
was predicted that India would produce 116-118 million tonnes of grain
and many in India including in policy making positions supported
them. Actually in 1978/79 India produced 127 million tonnes of grain
and its fertiliser consumption was 5.2 million tonnes
Diversification
• Recent models show the impact of demand diversification
• In response to higher growth, India has seen growth and
diversification of its food basket. The 1980s and 1990s record a
much faster growth of agro-based consumption in the Indian
demand basket. For example, per capita consumption of sugar
goes up from 6.2 in 1975-76 to 14.9 kgs./year. (Table 2) and that
level is not only much higher than in comparable countries, but
also than in countries which have much higher levels of per
capita income. Also, there has been a very rapid increase in
consumption of non-crop based commodities like eggs and
milk.. Egg consumption per capita goes up from 15 to 30 per
year in the period of 1975-98. Thus, as shown in my Lal
Bahadur Shastri Lecture, expansion and diversification of the
consumption basket is basically driven by a higher growth
performance in the 1980s.
Diversification Trends
• Per Capita Consumption of Agricultural Processed Commodities in India
• S. No .Commodity 1955/56 1975/76
1990/91
1998/9
• 1. Food grains
(per capita kgs/year) 155.6
158.5
180.6
176.7
• .2.Edible oil and
vanaspati, (kgs/yr)
3.2
4.6.
5.1
7.1
• 3.Sugar (kgs/yr)
5.0
6.2
12.5
14.9
• 4.Textiles (cotton
equivalents) (meters/yr) 14.4
17.6
24.8
28.2
. 5.Tea (kgs/yr)
0.36
0.45
0.61
0.68
6.Milk (ltrs/day)
4.7
4.6
6.3
7.5
7.Eggs (nos/mo)
5.3
15.5
26.0
30.4
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Sources: 1 Economic Survey, 2000-01, Vol. 2, pages S-24, S-2
2. Y.K. Alagh, Shastri Lecture, ICAR, Landmarks in Indian Agriculture, New Delhi, ICAR, 1994, pp. 178-99.
Population
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There is need for caution in population figures used as drivers. In earlier
estimates used for global forecasts population figures were expected to go up
from 856 million in 1991/92 to 938 million in 1996/97, showing an annual
average growth rate of 1.8% (Table 1). If the growth rate remained around 2%,
this figure would go up to 955 million. ( See Alagh, 1995 and Kumar, Saxena,
Alagh and Mitra, 2000 ) According to indications then it was argued that the
actual figure would be in between these two figures since the death rate had
fallen below even the 2000 target, but the birth rate was below target, hence
population growth would be around 1.9%. the estimated population would be
around 1016 million in 2000/01 and in any case will be below the rate of around
2% as estimated by the earlier UN projections, of around 1042 million in that
year. These developments have now been taken into account by the UN and
the 1998 revised population projections of the UN estimate India’s population in
2000/01 at 101.37 million. As of March 2001, the Census estimate of the
population was 102.7 million persons. If India was able to achieve a population
growth rate of around 1.6% in the decade 2000/01 to 2010/2011, its population
would reach 1171 million, if the Planning Commission projections were used as
a base. Even if this target was exceeded the figure would be less than 1224
million as estimated by the UN earlier.
Revisions
• The revised UN projections are now 115.22 million. For the year
2020/21, the UN projections are now 127.22 million. These
projections have not incorporated the details of the 2001 census.
The Registrar-General's Working Group on Population Projections
set up conventionally by the Planning Commission, will have to firm
up these alternative conjectural projections, in terms of underlying
fertility, mortality and expected life span behaviour, by age-group
and rural-urban categories. The details of recent population
projections and changes in them have been outlined to show that
there is a level of tentativeness about the available population
projections and the detailed country level projections are necessary.
For large countries, attention to detail is necessary, since differences
can have substantial impact as we have seen and this in turn can
influence substantive issues and judgements. For the purpose of
this study UN projections given by the UNU/IAS have been used. (
Table 2. )
Revised projections
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Table 2
UN Population Projections
Year
Population (million)
(1)
(2)
2000
1012.66
2005
1087.46
2010
1152.16
2015
1211.67
2020
1271.17
Land
• The other major category needing examination in this kind of
perspective is the land or resource base of the economy. The
Planning Commission has correctly projected that the net area sown
or arable land of the country will remain constant at 141 million
hectares.
• Growth in net area sown at around 1% annual in the early period of
planning fell to around 0.6% and then to 0.3% in subsequent
decades and is now not growing at all. It is reasonable to assume
that the geographical area of the country or the extensive land
frontier for exploitation has reached its limits.
• This is an important issue, the implications of which are not being
realised with the urgency they deserve, since at a basic level
resource constraints of a more severe kind faced by certain East
Asian economies are now being approached in India. Organisations,
communities, households and individuals will have to grasp this fact
and live with it.
Intensity
• The intensive frontier for land use, however, remains. It
has been known for example that cropping intensity
depends on irrigation. Thus gross cropped area or
harvested area has been shown in the past to be
strongly determined statistically, in an econometric
sense, by net irrigated area and irrigation intensity.
Irrigation permits the possibility of multiple cropping by
bringing additional land under cultivation and the same
land to be used more than once. Also the application of
new technologies in the past was related to assured
water supply. The new technology, on account of its
photo insensitivity properties, permits shorter duration
crops, which also is associated with increase in cropping
intensity. ( For details of this relationship in agricultural
planning and policy models, see Alagh, ESCAP, 1983 ).
Earlier Econometrics
• The use of this relationship has been used in Indian agricultural
policy and plan models, since the mid-Seventies when the first
agricultural sub-model of Indian planning was formulated for grain
self reliance ( See Alagh, et. al., Planning Commission, 1979 ). The
parameters used in different plans were as follows;
• Sr. Plan
Additional
Additional
Elasticity of
• No.
Irrigation
Cropped
GCA w.r.t.
•
Utilisation Area
GIA
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(mn. hec.) (mn. hec.)
• 0
1
2
3
4
• 1 Fifth
9.11
6.04
0.20
• Sixth
13.80
11.74
0.26
• Seventh(O) 10.90
10.00
0.31
• Seventh® 9.50
7.60
0.24
Now
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In the Nineties as we noted arable area has stopped
growing and so the land constraint is far more severe.
Growth will now have to be sourced from double
cropping and yields.
• These fundamental relationships are used to project the
intensive resource base of the economy. Table 1 shows
that by the end of the decade India would have used up
most of its balance water reserves, with the irrigated
area reaching around 114 million hectares by 2010. (
See Alagh, 1995, p. 395 and table, below ). The
projections for 2020 are a requirement of irrigation of 122
million hectares for irrigation ( K. Chopra and B. Golder,
Table 2.6 )
Resource Balances
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LAND AND WATER RESOURCES IN PERSPECTIVE
Sl No Variable 1991/2 1996/72001/22006/7
1.Population (millions)
a. Planning Commission 856 938 1016 1099
b. UN ( Unrevised ) 874 955 1042 1130
2.Net Area Sown (mn. hec.)
a. Planning Commission estimate140 141 141 141
Revised
141141141
3.Gross area sown (mn. hec.)
a. Planning Commission estimate182 191 197 203
Revised
183 191 197 205
4.Gross Irrigated Area (mn. hec.)
a Planning Commission estimate76 89 102 114
Revised
64 78 92 107
Balances and Intensities
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5.Cropping Intensity
a. Planning
Commission
estimate1.30 1.35 1.40 1.44
Revised 1.301.35 1.40 1.45
6.Gross Irrigated Area as % of Gross Area Sown
a. Planning Commission estimate
41.5 46.9
51.7 56.
1b. Revised
35.0 41 46 51
Source: Uma Lele, Y.K. Alagh,et.al., Forestry in India: An
Evaluation, Washington, World bank, 2000, Annex H
The Message
• The analysis strongly suggests simultaneous
action on surface water development, both large
and small projects, ground water and
conjunctive use and efficiency in water use. Or
India is in serious trouble. Another way of
looking at the severe land constraint is to see
that a net area sown per person will go down
from around 0.17 hectare to around 0.10
hectares. Gross area sown per person currently
around 0.2 hectares will even, if cropping
intensity increases very rapidly, go down to
around 0.15 - 0.18 hectares.
Outcomes 2020
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The projections assume a vastly improved performance on the land
and water management frontiers. It needs to be remembered that
the balance ground water reserves are now more limited. A very
dramatic effort will be needed to harvest and carefully use the
available water. Otherwise, the projected increase in cropping
intensity will simply not take place. Cropping intensity increased
from around 1.18 at the beginning of the Seventies to around 1.3 in
the early Nineties. In the next two decades, this effort needs to be
considerably strengthened, so that cropping intensity can increase
from 1.3 to 1.5. Harvesting of rainwater, recycling water from
agricultural drainage systems, more judicious use of water for
cropping, will all be required. Non-agricultural use of water will have
to be far more economical. The detailed exercise done for this study
requires that in the sustainable scenario 35.83 BCM of water are
saved by conjunctive use of surface and groundwater and 142 BCM
through harvesting of runoff. ( Chopra and Golder, Table 2.6 )
Another Tradition
• In 1987 the Planning Commission started
work on an agro-climatic strategy (ACRP)
for Indian agriculture. Land and water
were important parts of this strategy. ( See
References )
• The Plans now have a bifocal approach
reflecting both the approach in the
Agricultural Sub Model and the ACRP
ACRP
• The categories behind agro-economic zoning, are of soil land type,
water and climate. Climate here refers to weather i.e. temperature
and rainfall ( both levels and variation ). Water is both surface and
ground. These concepts have been described well by geographers
and a classic description is by the Russian academician Dr. Galina
Sadasyuk ( See Alagh, 1991 for a detailed discussion ). G.
Sadasyuk and P. Sengupta, ( 1968 ) for example, divided India into
18 agro-climatic zones and 44 sub-regions. ( See Alagh, 1988 and
Planning Commission, 1989 ). Similar exercizes have been
developed in other large countries, for example, Brazil, Indonesia
and even France ( See Ignacy Sachs, 1991, Lutfi Nasution, 1993 ).
• The I ndian Agro Climatic Planning Exercise built up targets from a
sub-zonal level on:
• Area to be brought under tank irrigation through renovation and/or
fresh construction
• Area to be covered by a canal distribution rehab and renovation
project
• Ground water abstraction possibilities
The Vision
• Assuming very optimistic policies A Blue Ribbon
Commission on Water Perspectives, which followed the
approaches indicated above has projected balanced
demand/supplies in 2025. These include
• Improvement in irrigation efficiencies above 60% from
existing levels of less than 40%
• Conjunctive use and aquifier management
• Demand management and rationalisation of cropping
patterns
• Much greater priority to resource allocation to the water
sector
• Improved project management and phasing
• Watershed development.
• But separately its scholarly chairman has projected a
shortage of 25% in a trend forecast. A recent UNU
study by Y.K.Alagh and Kirit Parikh has also projected
problems and at the regional level worse
The Perspective
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Water Requirement for Different Uses
S.No
Uses/year Year2010 Year2025
Year2050
Low High Low High Low High
Km3 Km3 % Km3 Km3 % Km3 Km3 %
Surface Water
Irrigation 382 391 53 360 389 46 375 463 39
Domestic 23 24 3 30 36 4 48 65 6
Industries 26 26 4 47 47 6 57 57 5
Power
14 15 2 25 26 3 50 56 5
Inland Navigationin additional for
ecological need7 7 1 10 10
1 15 15 1
Perspective contd.
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Ecology
5
5 1 10 10
1 20 20
2
Evaporation 42 42
6 50 50 6 76
76
6
Total
499 510.1 70 532 588.3 67 641.1 751.7 64
Ground Water
Irrigation 184 188
26 211 229 27 253 344 29
Domestic
& Municipal 19 19
3 25 28
3 42
46
4
Industries 11 11
2 20 20
2 24
24
2
Power
4
4
1 6 7
1 19
14
1
Total
217.7 221.9 30 262.3 281.7 33331.9428.336
Grand
Total
717 732 100 794 850 100
973 1180 100
Source: National Commission on Perspectives for Water
Development
New Initiatives
• The Plans say
• Community groups, NGO’s and Coperatives in the Agro Climatic
Project have identified the major components. Farmer led
distribution systems in existing commands; watershed
development rehabilitation of tanks, beels, ponds, talaavs; aquifier
management particularly in coastal areas have high returns;
• A massive program for land and water development has to be the
centre piece. Growth of private investment in groundwater has
been spectacular and needs further support, particularly in the
Eastern region of India
• Basin Development and transfer of water are important.
• It must be led by a public policy initiative, with a very large
financing component. Newer institutional forms like cooperatives,
NGOs, non profit companies and others must be designed.
• Leadership groups must supervise the preparation and
implementation of such a programs at the regional level of 3 to 5
Districts.
Canals and Groundwater
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Conjunctive water use can be attempted in an an area and is well
suited to describe the “dynamic interaction between the surface and
subsurface water systems” ( Peter Millington, 1996 ). The flow chart of
a simple multi level model can be as follows:
Water --------------------- Population; Needs,
irrigation,trees,etc
Development
\
\
\
\
\
\
\
\
\
\
Wells Drilled
\
\
Climate Regime ---Water Table
\
Depth ----------------------- Deep Aquifier Water
Quantity
\
/
\
/
\
/
Ground Water Quantity
Source: Nicholas Sonntag (1996)
Best Practices
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There are a number of successful experiences where the basic
problems of food and energy requirements of poor rural communities
were resolved through the application of state-of-the art scientific
knowledge and technology at the cutting edge of the interface of man
with land and water, which were studied in the programme of work
designed on agro-climatic planning. An attempt was made as a part of
the development of such plans to document success and failure stories
in land and water management and more optimal land use and cropping
patterns. Such success stories were, thus studied under alternative
agro-climatic regimes, which include low rainfall areas where, for
example, the level of water availability on an average is 50 cms and a
coefficient of variation is 40 to 60 per cent and the Dry Regions of India
(Region 14). In other words, in some years the water availability could
be less than 8 inches. A second kind of agro-climatic problematique
was that where the availability of water was greater, say around 1000
mm, but the variation was again 40 to 60 per cent. (Zone 7). But the
problem, was within the context of a hill slope and a valley. Unregulated
commercialisation invariably meant soil erosion and precipitation
instead of becoming a blessing becomes a curse, since it flows down
the hill, erodes the land base of the region and leads sooner or later to a
collapse of the socio-economic system in terms of food and energy. A
third problematique can be one where past development of an
unplanned type or of a badly planned type had led to resource loss.
Waterlogging and soil salinity are example of this kind. The Basin has
all these problems in different areas and so a differentiated strategy in
different areas is needed.
Newer Trends
• The kind of work that was done in the late Eighties, reported above
was flatteringly repeated. The kind of examples given above have
now been shown to have large scale replication (Kanchan Chopra
and Gopal Kadekode, 1993, have conducted analysis which is far
more inclusive and detailed than that which was originally presented
by Alagh, 1991).
• By now there are NGO’s who have succeeded in agro based projects
in thousands of hectares and no longer can these examples be
considered as pilots. The N.M. Sadguru Water and Development
Foundation in the tribal district of Panchmahals in Gujarat has by
now covered 18000 hectares under social forestry. It is the largest
NGO funded by the European Commission in the World. Another
group called WOTER has a similar performance in Ahmednagar
District in Maharashtra. We have collected some case studies from
them for this paper. These have been conducted by independent
scholars like R. Chambers (1990), Cornoy (1992), K. Balooni and K.
Singh (1994), K. Singh and T. Shah (1994), and Frances and Sanjay
Sinha (1996).
Communities
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The success stories are community and leadership
based, with leadership coming from diverse sources.- a
progressive farmer, an NGO, a local army retired person,
a ‘concerned’ civil servant, a scientist working in the field
. The leaders either had a science background or new
enough to adapt from a nearby science institution. The
organisation structure was neither purely private
ownership, nor fully community or social control. The
leadership invariably argued for aggressively functioning
markets and land ownership was private and agricultural
operations at the household level. However there was for
land or water management, limited and well defined
cooperation. This could be drainage, soil shaping,
contour management, improvement and management of
lower level canals, desilting of tanks, raising
embankments, fish culture, market development,
controlled grazing and so on.
Very Productive
• Some studies estimate the land and water
development costs, the labour component,
‘outside finance’, the output in terms of food
requirements met, energy requirements met and
fodder supplies. There were estimates of
‘economic rates of return on the investment’, i.e.
at accounting border prices, with a shadow
wage rate 25% higher than the market rate.
Financial rates of return at market prices were
also estimated. These studies showed high
economic rates of return, 18% plus , making
them very productive investments
Different Approaches
• Indian water scenarios follow a bifocal approach. There
is macro estimation of demand through the sub-models
• There is emphasis on policy choice and alternatives in
the ACRP approach or the river basin approach
• While the Perspectives Commission has futures
scenarios with considerable policy discussion, the
Futures study by the SP Gupta Committee has much
less discussion on water issues.
• In recent global models, while Indian water demand is
estimated with an Efficiency scenario, that for
neighbouring countries is on a BAU methodology. This is
bad methodology, for comparative studies.
References
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