Transcript Slide 1
Guns and Suicide 2000-2002
High Gun Ownership
• 15 States • 116 million people • 47% Gun Ownership • Firearm Suicides 9749 • Non Firearm suicides 5060 • Total suicides 14,809 • Firearm suicides per 100,000 8.4
Low Gun Ownership
• 6 States • 119 million people • 15% gun ownership • Firearm Suicides 2606 • Non-firearm Suicides 5446 • Total Suicides 8052 • Firearm suicides per 100,000 2.2
Age 10-14
Male Suicide Rates
Age 15-19 Age 20-24 Year 1994 Fire arm
1.43
Other All
0.93
2.36
Fire arm
13.11
Other
4.84
All Fire arm Other
17.95
18.80
9.16
All
27.96
1999
0.77
0.78
1.85
8.40
4.65
13.05
12.81
8.04
20.85
2004
0.46
1.25
1.71
6.47
6.18
12.65
11.12
9.72
20.84
1994 2004
-.97
+.32
-0.65
-6.64
+1.34
-5.3
-7.68
+.56
-7.12
Risk of Suicide in a Home
• Case Control studies are often used to determine whether a gun in the home increases the risk of suicide • These studies find a risk of 2.1 to 4.8 times greater for suicide when a gun is present • Shah and colleagues looked at adolescent suicides in Colorado from 1991 to 1993
Adolescent Suicide in Colorado 1991-1993
• 36 of 54 suicides were committed with a gun • 24 used a gun form home, 2 a non resident parent’s gun, 2 a relative’s, 4 a friend, neighbor or acquaintance, 4 unknown • 42% used a handgun • Only 25% of the guns were stored locked
Adolescent Suicide in Colorado 1991-1993
Variable
A gun in the home An unlocked gun > 1 gun Conduct problem Mental Health Rx Ever drank alcohol
Cases
72% 58% 56% 64% 47% 54%
Controls
50% 35% 28% 25% 19% 34%
P value
.05
.05
.02
<.01
.01
<.01
Independent Factors predicting the risk of suicide in adolescents
Variable Adjusted Odds Ratio
Conduct Disorder Related Behaviors Past Mental Health Problem 7.45
4.84
Household access to a gun Ever drank Alcohol 3.91
1.86
Does Storage Matter?
• Grossman et al studied 106 suicide and gun injury cases from Washington, Oregon and Missouri in individuals less than 20 years old • 82 Suicide attempts, 95% fatal • 24 unintentional injuries, 50% fatal • Control gun owning households were found by random telephone dialing and matched by age group of a household member and county
Does Storage Matter?
Storage Practice /Safety Device
Gun loaded Gun unloaded Gun and Ammo stored separately Both accessible Gun locked Ammunition locked Both locked
Cases N=106
34% 66% 41% 56% 32% 24% 17%
Controls N=480
9% 91% 65% 28% 58% 48% 35%
Does Storage Matter?
Storage Practice Odds Ratio
Gun and Ammunition Accessible Gun Accessible, Ammunition Not Ammunition Accessible, Gun Not Neither Accessible 1.0
0.47
0.34
0.22
Figure 7: Indiana Suicide Deaths by Gender and Age, 2001-2005
700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 10 -1 4 15 -1 9 20 -2 4 25 -3 4 35 -4 4 45 -5 4 55 -6 4 65 -7 4 75 -8 4 Ages 85+
White Males Black Males White Females Black Females (Source: Indiana State Department of Health, Suicide Report, 2001-2005 )
Figure 8: Indiana Suicide Rates by Race and Age, 2001-2005
35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
White Males Black Males White Females 10-14 1.57
1.56
0.73
15-19 14.11
4.41
3.07
20-24 21.3
27.89
3.2
25-34 25.66
24.07
5.57
Age
35-44 27.79
17.62
7.97
45-54 29.14
13.16
7.63
55-64 22.39
12.83
6.23
65+ 31.48
7.97
2.85
(Source: Indiana State Department of Health, Suicide Report, 2001-2005) *Black Females not included due to all age categories having less than 20 deaths and therefore unstable rates.
Table 4: Indiana Suicide Rates by Mechanism, Race and Gender, 2001-2005 Mechanism White Males Black Males White Females Firearms Number Death Rate*
1688 12.71
Suffocation
607 4.49
Poisoning
338 2.49
Number Death Rate*
99 8.14
Number Death Rate*
234 1.66
35 2.70
** 90 0.65
261 1.87
All Number (%)
2021 (60%) 732 (22%) 599 (18%)
Indiana Gun Ownership
• 44.2% of families reported owning a gun* • 25.8% reported owning a handgun* • 9.6% store guns loaded** • 6% store guns loaded and unlocked**
Year
2000
Good News in Indiana
Gun in the Household
48.6%
Handgun in the Household
29.5% 2004 44.2% 25.8%
Guns and Suicide Answered
• This is a problem usually involving legal guns accessed by people at risk from mental illness, substance abuse, physical illness, old age, etc.
• Simply removing guns from the community on a large scale is the simplest and probably most effective measure.
• Regulation of gun storage could limit the risk to the actual owner.
• Enforced waiting periods under Brady led to a decrease in suicide.
• Educational campaigns may be helpful.
Finally
• If Indiana were to somehow become a low gun ownership state, we might expect little change in non gun suicides but gun suicides to go from 60% to 33% of all suicides • For an average year this would decrease the number of suicides from about 700 to about 420. The decrease would come preferentially from suicides in younger males
Guns and Crime
Country Car Theft Burglary Robbery Sexual Incident Assault or Threat 11 Crimes
21.1
United States Australia Canada 17 Industrial -ized Nations 0.5
1.9
1.4
1.0
1.8
3.9
2.3
1.8
0.6
1.2
0.9
0.8
1.5
4.0
2.1
1.7
3.4
6.4
5.3
3.5
We don’t have more crime in our country, just much more lethal violence.
23.8
30.0
21.3
Nation
United States Canada Australia New Zealand
Guns and Crime
Fire Arm Homicide Rate
4.0
Non Firearm Homicide Rate
2.2
Total Homicide Rate
6.1
Household s with guns
41% 0.6
0.4
0.2
1.2
1.4
1.5
1.8
1.8
1.7
26% 16% 20%
Gun Ownership and Homicide
• Homicide Deaths in High Ownership States, 1988-1997 • Person Years at Risk 158 million • Gun-related 15283 • Non-gun related 5865 • Total 21148 • Homicide Deaths in Low Ownership States, 1988-1997 • Person Years at Risk 160 million • Gun –related 3668 • Non-gun related3598 • Total 7266
Guns and Crime
• Guns don’t kill people, but they make it so darn easy – The use of a gun in the commission of a crime greatly increases the likelihood of a homicide – Most gun homicides are not premeditated or planned, but occur in the context of another crime or dispute
Guns and Crime
• Homicides in Robberies and Assaults are: – 3-5 times more likely with guns than knives – 6-10 times more likely with guns than with other weapons (clubs, bats, bottles, etc.) – 40 times more likely than with no weapon
Circumstances of Gun Assault and Violence in Indianapolis, 2002-2004* • Robbery or Burglary • Argument • Domestic Violence • Drive By • Other 153 (14%) 146 (14%) 29 (3%) 44 (4%) 118 (11%) • Unknown 547 (54%) • When known, a handgun was used in 85% of cases.
Gun Violence in Indiana
• 6-7 homicides per 100,000 from 1999-2001 • 68% are done with firearms • Firearm homicide was the leading cause of injury death for black males from 1999-2001, accounting for 478 or 38% of 1264 deaths
Gun Violence Marion Cty. 2004
• 392 injuries, 83 of which were fatal (21%) • Males were 89% of the victims • 90% were black (139/100,000) • 72% were younger than 35 • 38% in a home, 35% a road or vehicle, 27% other location
Gun Violence, Marion Cty. 2004
• For 83 firearm homicides, the shooter was – An acquaintance 24 % – A stranger 11% – A family member or intimate 10% – Other or Unknown 56% • Handguns accounted for 89 % of the firearms when the firearm was known
Gun violence is costly
• Medical care costs are increased by about $2 billion per year • Increased costs to the criminal justice system of $2.4 billion per year for longer incarcerations, trials, etc.
• Increased costs of law enforcement, preventive actions by schools, airports, etc. of more than $1 billion dollars.
• Costs of decreased willingness to work evenings estimated at $3-7 billion per year • Costs of depopulation of central cities, decline in property values, problems delivering services, etc. are in the billions but difficult to quantify
Gun Violence Costs as Willingness to Pay
• Would you be willing to pay more taxes to decrease gun violence?
• Cook and Ludwig review several studies that suggest Americans would be willing to pay $80 billion to eliminate the use of guns in crime
Guns and Crime, Answers
If locking up criminals is the answer, we should be the safest country in the world:
The US has the highest rate of incarceration in the developed world.
Country Prisoners*
United States Canada England Australia 2,053,331 36,024 74,452 22,492
Prisoners/100 ,000*
701
Homicide Rate/100,000 **
4.28
116 1.4
141 115 1.4
1.5
Guns and Crime, Answers
• If guns were the answer to crime, we should be remarkably safe. We have 290 million guns in circulation, nine guns for every 10 people. No other country has more than six guns for ten people.
• Responsible gun ownership does not protect from crime. Guns in home are rarely useful in defense and increase likelihood of suicide or homicide.
• Gun carry laws have little effect on crime.
Guns and Crime, Answers
• Acknowledge Guns are the problem . –The governor, mayor, and key legislators need to address guns as a threat to the community –Key community leaders to need to denounce guns and gun violence • Different Communities need different speakers
Guns and Crime, Answers
For Crime Guns, the problem is the migration of guns, mainly hand guns, from legal sales to criminal users.
This can happen at the point of sale through straw man purchasers.
This can happen in secondary markets where no records are kept.
This can happen through theft.
Guns and Crime, Answers
• Better regulation of the gun market – One handgun per month requirment – No unscreened sales or transfers – Registration requirement, with required reporting of loss or theft – Storage requirements – Improvements in manufacture that restrict use to the gun’s owner – Increased support for the ATF and better distribution of information to states and localities
Guns and Crime, Answers
• Recognition that gun violence is not the same threat in the city and rural areas. Allow municipalities to set different rules for gun ownership and use.
• Focused policing aimed at literally getting guns off the street – Stop and frisk laws – Focus on violence associated with drug trafficking, getting sellers off the streets
Measures Favored By a Majority of Hoosiers, 2004
• Background checks at gun shows 87% • Waiting period to buy a handgun 85% • Raise age to 21 for purchase of a long gun 63% • Storage requirements for guns 73% • Child Access Prevention Law 73% • Safety Training for New Owners 83% • Recognition device for new handguns 75%
Reasons For Hope
• “At one time, the United States had the worst traffic fatality rate in the developed world. The automobile industry wanted to blame the problem on bad driving, no regulation needed. Progress was made when we were convinced that the problem was not only bad driving, but unsafe cars and roads. Despite fierce industry opposition, great progress has been made now that that traffic safety is recognized as a public health issue. Traffic fatalities per mile driven are down 80%.” • Hemenway, Private Guns, Public Health, 2004
Hoosiers Concerned About Gun Violence
• Background…..