Transcript Times’ Harvest, ISP 3360

Times’ Harvest, ISP 3360
Winter 2005, Section 001
Class #4: April 15, 2005
Beware of Futures Studies!
• “The Future isn’t what it used to be.”
• Why don't you ever see the headline
"Psychic Wins Lottery"?
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Agenda
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Finishing up
More unchat?
The Future / Quibbles
From the readings…
Trends
Issues
CULMA?
SET
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Finishing Up
• ISP 3360 ends next week
• Get work in to count for regular grade
• Final for Directed Study is in two weeks –
4/29, here. Open book, bring ALL books.
• X Vs I Vs E for non-starters – important
choice
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Get in touch with me and let me know what
you want. I can stay after class.
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unchat?
• Erich Friebel asked about another unchat
session to try more options
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Interest?
I could do this next Friday evening, or Saturday
afternoon
Rotating moderator by voting
• For “outside” use, contact Bill Warters
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[email protected], 313-993-7482 (M, T, T)
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the future
• Indeterminate & unknowable
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We can see trends but trends change also
• Scenarios
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One classification: probable, possible,
preferable
• Active – try to create your preferable future
• Passive – try to adapt to probable future, or
recognize preferable when it happens
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Quibbles
• Hunter-gatherer, agricultural and industrial
societies still exist. If fact, they account for
the large majority of earth’s population
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Also within each stage, but transformed – handmade boots
Great variety within a stage – style, culture
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Quibbles
• Many wrong guesses about the future
o
Early guesses about the role of computers
• Number
• Use
• Plateaus or continuous change?
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Could be a combination
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From the readings…
The Third Wave
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Increase in autonomy
Splintering of society
Disappearance of a common reality
Democracy ceases to function
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Groups “referee” to mediate conflict
Are there signs of this?
Three branches of government (list) – which
one best mediates conflict?
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The Third Wave
• Table of characteristics for social sectors in
agricultural and industrial societies – Pp 1 & 2 of
agenda for unchat class
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Similar table Pg 16 Futuring – extends to Cybernetic
age
• “Cybernetic” – relating to automatic control
• Naming the future – why?
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Can one sector change all by itself?
• Applied to Iraq – Joanne – looking better just now
• More important – China (economic Vs political)
• Backsliding - Russia
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The Third Wave
• Conflict
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“Indust-reality”
Predictions about the end of civilization
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In the Age of the Smart Machine
• Automating Vs Informating
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Autonomy Vs control
Today, “empowerment” – rapid change, learn
from mistakes - Vs top-down control
Informating – team-oriented, interdisciplinary
• Work of the body Vs intellective work
• Pg 414: “Using the technology to its full
potential means using the man to his full
potential”
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Futuring
• “We are all futurists” – we have no choice
• Exploring unknown territory – even
imperfect information is valuable
o
Imagining is preparing
• Methods (Chpt 6)
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Imagining – scenarios, simulations
Seeing all connections – many methods
• Progress has been real
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Futuring
• Do we have obligations to future
generations?
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Helping young people
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Trends…
A third wave of science
• First: physical world (dead) - then
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Started with Isaac Newton, 1687, Principia
Mathematica Philosphia Naturalis
(“Principia”)
Threatened society, predecessors harassed, at
least one killed (Giordano Bruno)
• Earth no longer the center of the Universe
• Questioned religious order
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A third wave of science
• First: physical world - now
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Dominant influence on technology and
economy, especially after WWI
Build virtual product before building test
products or going into production
Science driving technology – “knowledge
society”
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A third wave of science
• First: physical world - future
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Open questions about large-scale structure and
fate of the universe
Many questions in Geology open
Questions on atomic and sub-atomic scales
open
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A third wave of science
• Second: living world - then
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Started with Charles Darwin, 1859, The Origin
of Species
Needed cellular biology of early 20th century
(chromosomes) for full scientific acceptance
Controversial in society
• Questions central role for humans
• Natural origins for many life forms
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A third wave of science
• Second: living world - now
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Broad outlines of life are known
• Can control many life processes, e.g. fertility
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Basis of much technology and economic value
Many details still unknown
• We rely heavily on natural processes that we do not
understand in detail and certainly cannot duplicate
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Still controversial in society
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A third wave of science
• Second: living world - future
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Making progress on many diseases
Subject to human, animal and plant epidemics
• Mobility
• Monoculture
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Genetic manipulation
• Historical – breeding (within species)
• Current – GMO (transfer genes across species)
• Future - ?
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A third wave of science
• Third (emerging): cognitive science – how
our brains, on a mechanistic neuronal level,
produce our minds (intellect and emotions)
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Currently lacks foundational work but see
Consilience (E.O. Wilson), The Blank Slate
(Stephen Pinker) and others
Should be equally as controversial
• Differences where democracy sees equality
• Excesses will occur (are occurring)
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The Human Footprint
• General: humans pressing earth’s ability to
support us, trend is increasing
• Includes pollution (harmful waste products).
Example: autos in developed world
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Individually, extremely clean now, but
• More of them
• More miles per year
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Collectively, a problem
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The Human Footprint
• Resources
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Non-renewable
• Expect to run out of petroleum ~ 2050, but
increasing scarcity before then
• Global Warming (GW) and fossil fuels
– GW projections depend upon computer models
– Evidence and scientific consensus is strong, we are now
seeing first effects, in line with computer models
– Society is coming to accept limits of some type on fossil
fuels
– Damage to natural systems
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The Human Footprint
• Resources
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Renewable
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Water scarce and/or unsafe in many areas
Desertification
Approaching limits on amount of arable land
Deforestation
Over fishing, especially whales and large fish
Michigan’s experience – Lewis and Clark, furs,
lumber
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The Human Footprint
• Ecosystem Services
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Services the natural world provides that
humans cannot replace at this time
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Clean air, water, soil
Soil fertility
Photosynthesis (that’s food, by the way!)
Climate regulation
Plant fertilization
Etc. (approximately 30)
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The Human Footprint
• Ecosystem Services
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Millenium Ecosystem Assessment
• http://www.millenniumassessment.org/en/index.aspx
• International effort, assessments complete for 24
ecosystem services, 15 (60%) are in danger
• “… approximately 60 percent of the ecosystem
services that support life on Earth … are being
degraded or used unsustainably. Scientists warn that
the harmful consequences of this degradation could
grow significantly worse in the next 50 years.”
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The Human Footprint
• Factors that will degrade this situation
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World population going from 6 Billion to 9
(50% increase)
Development of underdeveloped world (500%)
Our own increasing use of resources
A safety factor?
Possible that we will need to scale back to 10%
of current per-person intensity
• Probably unacceptable – we want more, not less
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The Human Footprint
• A possible way out – engineering nature,
virtual and interior lives
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Full use of GMO for food – very controversial
Use communications technology in existing and
to-be-developed ways to decrease use of
resources
• Virtual travel, conferencing, vacationing
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Living more in our interior worlds, less “stuff”
• Plus technological convergence, smart use of energy
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Interior Life
• Celebrity
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Personal identification
Second chances
• Personal performance – karaoke, jokeoke
• Reality TV
• Living your interior life – cosmetic surgery,
Lasik, baldness, tooth whitening
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Information and Knowledge
• Information becoming a basis for wealth
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Land was the basis for agricultural society
Ownership of means of production for industrial
• Ownership of information becoming
important
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Internet, world wide web, and computers
Music downloading
Patent, copyright law
Open Source, IBM releasing technologies
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Family Changes
• Sub-nuclear family – single parenting
• Temporary arrangements – “marriage light”
in Europe, e.g. civil unions
• Blended families
• Domestic Dads
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Disintermediation
• Disintermediation
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Intermediary – distributor
Books printed on demand
Music and video
Job wanted ads in newspapers Vs Internet
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Issues
• Individual responsibility Vs “safety net”
• “Race to the bottom” Vs “floating all boats”
• International governance
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Autonomy of national governments not
absolute
Coordination to solve problems
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Issues
• Privacy, identity, control over personal
information
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DNA banks
• Will US pull back from innovation?
• Gender identity / roles
• Free innovation Vs social controls?
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Would controls (e.g. making human cloning
illegal) work?
• Interplay of interdisciplinarity and
disciplinarity
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Questions? Comments?
I had fun!
CULMA?
My handout
Student Evaluation of Teaching
• Information you need:
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Course: ISP 3360
Call Number: 25625
• Can anyone volunteer to turn the forms in?
• Class is done when this is done
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Done!
University Hierarchy
• Board of Governors (elected)
• President (Reid)
• Provost (Barrett, chief academic
officer)
• College (CULMA), Dean (Kay)
• Department (DIS, Henry)
• Faculty, classes, etc.
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