Transcript Slide 1

Public Meeting TSIA of EU-ASEAN FTA
Global Analysis Report
By: Paul Wijmenga, Floor Smakman, Saara Tamminen, Leon van
Berkel
Brussels, 11 September 2008
Overview
1. Introduction
2. CGE Modelling
3. Screening
4. Scoping
5. Issues for Discussion
6. Contact
1. Introduction (1): Organisation of the Study
• ECORYS as lead contractor
• Modelling team headed by Prof. Joe
Francois
• ASEAN partners in 5 different countries:
Indonesia, Philippines, Singapore,
Thailand and Vietnam
1. Introduction (2): TSIA Methodology
• Analyse the economic, social and environmental
impacts of trade measures negotiated within an FTA.
• Quantitative and qualitative approach: CGE modeling
and Causal Chain Analysis.
• 50% modeling & analysis; 50% consultations and inputs
from key stakeholders and civil society:
www.tsia.ecorys.com/asean
• 3 Phases of the study: 1): scenario building, screening
and scoping (GAR); 2): in-depth studies of selected
sectors/issues; 3): policy recommendations on enhancing
or mitigating measures
1. Introduction (3): The Phase 1 Report
(GAR)
•
•
•
•
•
Overview of current economic,
social and environmental issues and
trends in the EU and ASEAN
Computable General Equilibrium
(CGE) analysis
Screening & Scoping
Consultations EU and ASEAN
End of phase 1: Sector / HI selection
2. CGE Modelling: (1) The Model
• Aim of modelling: quantitative analysis of the expected
outcomes of the FTA in general equilibrium;
• Scenario definitions:
Base year, 2004 (GTAP 7.0);
Experiment 1. Limited FTA Agreement;
Experiment 2. Extended FTA Agreement;
Experiment 3. Extended FTA Plus Agreement.
• The scenarios are based on the EU – ASEAN overview
(Ch. 2), discussions in the kick-off meeting and the
inception report (also online).
3. CGE Modelling: (2) Scenarios
Analysis of three scenarios:
• Tariff reductions:
– Limited FTA 90%, Extended FTA 97%, Extended plus
FTA 97% for food and non-food;
• Services (AVE reductions):
– Limited FTA 25%, Extended FTA 75%, Extended plus
FTA 75%
• Trade facilitation:
– Limited FTA 1%, Extended FTA 2%, Extended plus FTA
3% (some sectors)
2. CGE Modelling: (3) Outcomes
• Macro-economic outcomes include: changes in
income, GDP, wages of high and low skilled labour
changes, etc.
• The CGE model also provides outcomes per
sector: output effects, employment effects (highand low-skilled), price effects, change in value of
imports and exports
2. CGE Modelling: (4) Outcomes (ext.
FTA)
Table 1: Summary of Macro-economic changes
India
Bang
Pak
Sri Lanka
Other
South Asia
Other
LDCs
ROW
National inc. (change in mln €)
-799
-54
-232
-30
-11
-61
-5 499
GDP (% change)
-0.04
-0.04
-0.08
-0.02
-0.01
-0.01
-0.01
Skilled Real Wage (% change)
-0.08
-0.08
-0.20
-0.11
-0.09
-0.03
-0.03
Unskilled Real Wage (% change)
-0.05
-0.07
-0.10
-0.10
-0.07
-0.03
-0.03
Value of exports (% change)
0.02
-0.52
-0.52
-0.16
-0.61
-0.06
-0.04
National inc. (change in mln €)
-3.469
-110
-963
-60
-21
-144
-27 076
GDP (% change)
-0.23
-0.11
-0.66
-0.13
-0.07
-0.08
-0.08
Skilled Real Wage (% change)
-0.25
-0.14
-0.71
-0.19
-0.15
-0.11
-0.11
Unskilled Real Wage (% change)
-0.19
-0.14
-0.57
-0.18
-0.13
-0.08
-0.10
Value of exports (% change)
-0.25
-1.02
-1.99
-0.55
-0.55
0.15
0.06
Scenario / variable
Scenario 2: Extended FTA (short run)
Scenario 2: Extended FTA (long run)
2. CGE Modelling: (5) Outcomes (ext. FTA)
Decomposition of Dynamic Real Income Effects (millions of 2007 Euros)
Measure
Scenario
Country
Ambitious
FTA
EU
Tariffs
Services
NTB
Total
6,737
14,857
5,225
26,820
Cambodia
74
79
114
267
Indonesia
3,377
7,716
2,022
13,115
Malaysia
2,493
6,124
2,087
10,703
Philippines
2,268
1,216
2,401
5,885
Singapore
763
16,999
2,556
20,317
Thailand
4,473
4,349
2,722
11,543
Vietnam
4,414
1,423
1,143
6,980
90
-32
207
264
Other ASEAN
2. CGE Modelling: (6) Sector outcomes EU
Table 3: Change in Sectoral Output for EU27
Static/Short Run
Dynamic/Long Run
Limited
FTA
Ambitious
FTA
Ambitious
Plus FTA
Limited
FTA
Ambitious
FTA
Ambitious
Plus FTA
Processed Foods
Textiles
0.4
-0.9
0.5
-1.0
0.5
-1.3
0.6
-0.8
0.9
-0.7
0.9
-1.0
% share of
sector in total
value-added*
4.1
0.8
Wearing apparel
Leather products
Chemical, rubber, plastic
products
Metal products
Motor vehicles and parts
Electronic equipment
Machinery and equipment
nec
Manufactures nec
trade services
Utilities
Construction
Communication
Business services, nec
Other services
-1.5
-13.7
0.0
-2.0
-17.6
0.0
-2.3
-18.7
0.0
-1.7
-17.3
0.1
-2.2
-21.4
0.2
-2.6
-23.7
0.2
0.6
0.3
4.8
0.1
0.5
-1.1
0.2
0.1
0.6
-2.5
0.3
0.1
0.7
-3.0
0.4
0.2
0.7
-1.3
0.3
0.2
0.9
-3.1
0.4
0.3
1.0
-3.8
0.6
2.1
3.3
1.7
4.7
0.1
0.0
0,01
0,05
-0,04
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0,01
0,11
-0,08
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
0,02
0,13
-0,08
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.1
0,07
0,1
0,02
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0,13
0,2
0,05
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0,14
0,21
0,05
0.3
0.2
1.3
11.1
0,01
0,05
-0,04
10.2
15.8
2. CGE Modelling: (7) Sector outcomes ASEAN
Table 4: Main positive and negative sectoral impacts in ASEAN countries
Country
Main sectors with increased outputs Main sectors with reduced output
Cambodia
 Textiles & wearing apparel
 Manufacturers nec, Machinery and
equipment nec,
 Transport equipment nec
Indonesia








 Business services nec, Motor
vehicles and parts
 Minerals nec,
 Machinery and equipment nec
Malaysia
Philippines
Electronic equipment,
Wearing apparel
Leather products,
Textiles & wearing apparel
Electronic equipment
Motor vehicles and parts,
Leather products,
Textiles & Wearing apparel
 Gas, Cereal grains, Machinery and
equipment nec,
 Transport equipment nec.
Singapore
 Electronic equipment,
 Textiles
 Insurance
 Machinery and equipment nec,
 Motor vehicles and parts,
 Gas
Thailand




 Wood products, Mineral products
nec (SR)
 Motor vehicles and parts,
 Machinery and equipment nec
Vietnam
Other ASEAN
Electronic equipment,
Transport equipment nec
Leather products,
Trade
 Textiles,
 Wearing apparel
 Motor vehicles,
 Motor equipment nec,
 Ferrous minerals
3. Screening: (1) Criteria
…. for choice of sectors and horizontal issues
Cr1: Importance of sector/horizontal issue for EU and
ASEAN economies and EU-ASEAN relations;
Cr2: Size of the expected impact of the FTA on
sector’s trade between the EU and ASEAN;
Cr3: Expected social and/or environmental impact
of the sector for the EU and ASEAN;
Cr4: Comments and feedback from consultations with
key stakeholders and civil society.
3. Screening: (2) Overview Table Sectors
Table 5: Screening and selection of sectors
Cr1:
Importance
sector/issue
Cr2:
Cr 3:*
Economic Impact
Social / environmental
(output/ employment)
effects
Cereals, grains, nec
X
X
X
Electronic equipment
Financial services
Fishing
Gas
Leather products
Mineral products nec
Motor vehicles
Oil
Oil seeds
Petroleum, coal products
Processed food
Textiles
Transport services
Wearing apparel
Provisions of services and movement of
natural persons/GATS mode 4/issues
related to economic migration
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Cr4:
Comments civil
society
3. Screening: (3) Overview Table H.I.
Table 6: Screening and selection of horizontal issues
Cr1:
Importance
sector/issu
e
Cr2:
Economic Impact
(output/
employment)
Cr 3:*
Social /
environmental
effects
Competition policy
X
X
Intellectual property rights
X
X
X
Investment conditions
X
X
X
Other services, environmental services
X
Public procurement
X
X
X
Rules of origin
X
X
X
X
X
X
Sanitary- and Phytosanitary
measures
Technical standards for industrial
products
Trade facilitation
X
X
X
X
Cr4:
Comments civil
society
3. Screening: (4) Preliminary Results
Based on the screening criteria, we propose to look
at the following sectors and horizontal issues:
• Sectors: (1) Cereals and Grains, (2) Motor Vehicles
& Automotives, (3) Textiles, Clothing & Footwear, (4)
Electronic Equipment and (5) Transport services
(maritime transport).
• Horizontal issues: (1) Investment Conditions, (2)
SPS, (3) Trade Facilitation, (4) IPR and (5) RoO,
or….
3. Screening: (5) Possible Alternatives
Sectors
• Fisheries
• Food processing
• Telecommunications
• Distribution Services
(wholesale & retail)
• Financial services
• Energy sector
• Other ……….?
Horizontal issues
• Government Procurement
• Competition Policy
• Other ……….?
4. Scoping
Having identified the sectors and horizontal issues,
what are the main topics that need to be researched
in Phase 2?
BASED ON:
- Your suggestions (feedback form, also online)
- Suggestions by our sector experts
- Bilateral meetings with civil society and other key
stakeholders
- FOCUS: In-depth analysis of sectors and horizontal
issues – main issues in detail
 See Feedback Form (hand-out)
6. Issues For Discussion
A) You are invited to ask questions and provide comments on the
GAR
- Q&A B) You’re invited to provide inputs and suggestions for next steps
in study, specifically on:
– Definite sector and HI selection – Final selection after TSIA
Workshop in Bangkok (27 October 2008);
– There are several ‘alternative sectors’ that may be chosen over
preliminary selection – suggestions (including argumentation)?
– We are at the beginning of Phase 2: what are main issues for the
sectors and HI (preliminarily) chosen?
– Any suggestions for interesting Case Studies?
- Discussion -
6. Contact
For more information, downloading of
feedback form or providing feedback
directly, contact us at:
Website:
www.tsia.ecorys.com/asean
Email address:
[email protected]