Transcript No Slide Title
Global Economy, Recovery, and Linkage to Agriculture
Kevin Bernhardt UW-Extension and Center for Dairy Profitability October 2009
World Income
World Situation to Farm Income
How much 2 Flow of Agricultural Imports & Exports Energy Demand and Prices Biofuel Demand and Prices Demand for U.S. Products (Exports) Demand for biofuel raw material (corn) Agricultural Commodity Prices & Production World Currency Exchange Rates Who gets the business Farm Income
A Little Theory
D 0 D 1 S P 1 P 0
All else staying the same, as income increase demand and price increase
3 Q
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World Real GDP Growth Rate versus World Feedgrain Exports
As World Growth Rates Go – So Goes World Exports 140,000.0
130,000.0
120,000.0
110,000.0
100,000.0
90,000.0
80,000.0
70,000.0
60,000.0
50,000.0
40,000.0
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
World Feedgrain Exports Real GDP Growth Rate 4
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World Real GDP Growth Rate versus U.S. Exports
As World Growth Rates Go – So Goes U.S. Corn Exports 5
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Canada’s Real GDP Growth Rate versus U.S. Exports
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China’s Real GDP Growth Rate versus U.S. Exports
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Mexico’s Real GDP Growth Rate versus U.S. Exports
8
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Japan’s Real GDP Growth Rate versus U.S. Exports
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Remember
D 0 D 1 S P 1 P 0
As demand for U.S. exports increase then all else being the same price increases
10 Q
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U.S. Corn Exports versus Nominal U.S. Corn Prices
As U.S. Corn Exports Go – So Goes U.S. Nominal Prices 11
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U.S. Corn Exports versus Real U.S. Corn Prices
12
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What’s the Point?
• • As the world’s income (GDP) rises U.S. Exports increase And as U.S. exports increase so does U.S. prices 13
A Global Impact that affects U.S. Ag Prices is real GDP Growth
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14
A Little Theory
Demand also can increase if your currency becomes comparatively stronger. That is, your currency buys more of your trading partners stuff!
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Real U.S. Exchange Rate Index versus U.S. Corn Exports
As Value of U.S. Dollar Falls – U.S. Corn Exports Increase
15 The exchange rate going down means the value of the dollar compared to other currencies is less.
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And as we have already seen increasing U.S. Corn Exports Increase Prices As U.S. Corn Exports Go – So Goes U.S. Nominal Prices 16
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17
What’s the Point?
• If the value of the U.S. dollar is comparatively low then that gives our trading partners more money to buy U.S. stuff – Leads to increased demand for U.S. exports – As U.S. exports increase so does U.S. prices
A Global Impact that affects U.S. Ag Prices is the exchange value of the U.S. Dollar
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Two Global Impacts Ag Prices
Income, GDP, Growth of our trading partners Exchange value of the U.S. Dollar
18
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The Global Recession Before and After
19
Real Gross Domestic Product Growth Rate (through 2007)
12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Source: IMF:
World Advanced Economies Emerging Economies Developing Asia © 2009
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Real Gross Domestic Product Growth Rate (through 2009)
12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 2000
Source: IMF:
2002 2004 2006 2008 World Advanced Economies Emerging Economies Developing Asia © 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
Monthly Real Exchange Rate, per U.S. $ Jan 1980-Dec 2007 (2005 base) The lower the number the more attractive U.S. products.
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1 0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0 Ja n-8 0 Ja n-8 2 Ja n-8 4 Ja n-8 6 Ja n-8 8 Ja n-9 0 Ja n-9 2 Ja n-9 4 Ja n-9 6 Ja n-9 8 Ja n-0 0 Ja n-0 2 Ja n-0 4 Ja n-0 6 Canada EU Zone © 2009
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1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1 0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
Real Exchange Rate, per U.S. $ (2005 base) The lower the number the more attractive U.S. products.
Canada EU Zone © 2009
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Real Exchange Rate, per U.S. $ (1980-2009, 2005 base) The lower the number the more attractive U.S. products.
180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Ja n-8 0 Ja n-8 2 Ja n-8 4 Ja n-8 6 Ja n-8 8 Ja n-9 0 Ja n-9 2 Ja n-9 4 Ja n-9 6 Ja n-9 8 Ja n-0 0 Ja n-0 2 Ja n-0 4 Ja n-0 6 Ja n-0 8 Japan © 2009
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180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
Real Exchange Rate, per U.S. $ (1980-2009, 2005 base) The lower the number the more attractive U.S. products.
Japan © 2009
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Interest Rates, 1992-2009
Copyright © 2009 Mortgage-X.com
Source: www.mortgage-x.com
Reprinted with permission 26
If i-rates come back to a more “normal” state then that slows the engine a bit.
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Unemployment, 1990-2009
27
If unemployment returns to a more “normal” range then that increases income & consumption.
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Consumer Confidence
28
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Dow Jones Industrial Averages, 2000-2009
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World Feedgrains and Wheat Ending Stocks (Source: FAS PSD Online)
300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 19 75 /1 97 19 6 78 /1 97 19 9 81 /1 98 19 2 84 /1 98 19 5 87 /1 98 19 8 90 /1 99 19 1 93 /1 99 19 4 96 /1 99 19 7 99 /2 00 20 0 02 /2 00 20 3 05 /2 00 20 6 08 /2 00 9 Feedgrains
Feedgrains: corn, barley, oats, and sorghum
Wheat © 2009
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31
How Did We Get Here?
• Imbalance of trade, investment, and savings between trade surplus countries (China) and trade-deficit countries (U.S.).
– U.S. has been at the party too long Spending instead of saving and investing Running up debts on low interest rates Irrational Exuberance (aka: stupidity) – Morning/Hangover came in 2 nd half of 2008 Likely continue until the end of 2009 first half of 2010.
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Short Term Impact of Crisis
• • Hit 1: Crisis was worldwide causing a fall in incomes and thus a fall in demand Hit 2: The U.S. while hit hard still had a stronger position than much of the rest of the world and thus the dollar actually strengthened – Causing U.S. products to be more expensive Ag Exports fell Ag Prices fell
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U.S. $ Index, July 2007-Oct 2009
33
July 2008
Copyright 2009 INO.com, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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34
Long Run ????????
• All Depends on the adjustments and re alignments of savings, investment and trade.
– Do we re-ignite the party High U.S. spending High foreign investment in the U.S.
Low U.S. savings That is: continued and further imbalances – Result for U.S.: Fun in the short run, but a new hangover to follow
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OR ????????
• Do we rebalance exchange rates, savings, investment, and trade re-alignment that puts the world on a more sustainable economic growth path.
– Good for the U.S. in the long run – A step back for the trade surplus countries (China) that have been supplying the party.
35
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World Income
World Situation to Farm Income
36 Flow of Agricultural Imports & Exports Energy Demand and Prices Biofuel Demand and Prices Demand for U.S. Products (Exports) Demand for biofuel raw material (corn) Agricultural Commodity Prices & Production
World Currency Exchange Rates
Farm Income
What the 2008/2009 World Economic Crisis Means for Global Agricultural Trade
August 2009 Report by the Economic Research Service WRS-09-05 May Peters, Mathew Shane, & David Torgerson 37
The Study
• • Simulation model developed to reflect the onset of the Economic crisis from December 2008 forward Reference scenario plus two alternatives: 38
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Reference Scenario
• Based on: – World economic recovery beginning in late 2009 – Slow appreciation of the U.S. dollar – Modest Economic (GDP) growth in the world and in the U.S. Initial contraction Builds back to a long-term just over 2% per year. 39
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Ref. Scenario: Real U.S Trade Weighted Exchange Rate
(the lower the better for exports) 40 140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
90.00
80.00
70.00
60.00
Value of the dollar is going up, but that is from a near 30 year low. Back to average.
History Forecast Source: ERS, 2005 base
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Reference Scenario, Real GDP
Return to a pre crisis state with slight edge in favor of the U.S. vs ROW, thus the $ increase
41
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Ref Scenario: Real U.S. GDP Growth Comparisons
(the lower the better for exports)
GDP recovers back to a long term average
42 Source: ERS, 2005 base
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Reference Scenario Ag Commodity Prices
• Initially – Value of dollar rises – GDP Falls Consumption growth rate falls (demand falls) U.S. Exports fall Commodity prices fall • Dramatically in the beginning (we’ve seen that) 43
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Reference Scenario: Ag Commodity Prices
• Long-Term – Dollar continues to grow which dampens any big increases in commodity prices – GDP levels off in a way that slightly benefits U.S. compared to ROW – Stabilize around 2012 to an equilibrium price 44 What will the equilibrium price be?
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45
Must be a New Era
(Nominal Corn Prices, 1866-2008 4.50
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
1865 1885 1905 1925 1945
5.24
4.13
3.14
1965 1985 2005 2025
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8 7 6 2 1 0 5 4 3
Nominal Corn Prices Ranges based on all data recent and all periods and no outliers all periods and recent
4.86
4.42
2.25
5.24
4.13
3.14
5.26
4.21
4.01
6.32
4.63
3.31
6.70
4.60
3.00
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Class III Prices – 1988-Present 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 Jan-88 Jan-93 1988-Aug 98 Jan-98 Jan-03 Sep 98-Feb 04 Jan-08 Mar 04 © 2009
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Alternative Scenario 1: High Dollar Value
• Continuation of trade and savings imbalances – Developing countries (China) continue large trade deficits with developed countries (U.S.) continue larger savings rates and investment in developed countries (U.S.).
48
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Alternative Scenario 1: High Dollar Value
• For the U.S. this means – Investment and economic growth, maybe too strong!
– Strong economic growth makes our dollar strong which dampens the attractiveness of U.S. commodity exports U.S. Dollar value is 40% higher in this scenario versus reference scenario.
49
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Real U.S Trade-Weighted Exchange Rate
(the lower the better for exports) 50 Source: ERS, 2005 base
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High Dollar Scenario vs Reference: Percent Change in Real GDP
After an initial recovery, U.S. may be partying too hard (again)
51
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High Dollar Scenario Results
• Higher dollar, less exports, lower Ag Commodity Prices 52
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Alternative Scenario 2: Low Dollar Value
• • In one word – Balance – Significant reduction and realignment of world trade and savings imbalances.
– Re-balancing of capital flows – Economic growth is resumed, but at a more sustainable long-term level.
Results in long-term, less volatile, and sustainable growth and a lower valued dollar
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Real U.S Trade-Weighted Exchange Rate
(the lower the better for exports) 54 Source: ERS, 2005 base
Historically quite low, is that sustainable?
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Low Dollar Scenario: Real GDP Growth Compared to Reference Scenario – U.S. versus ROW U.S. re-aligns in a way that results in longer term sustainable growth.
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Low Dollar Scenario Results
• • • • • • Lower supply of capital from other countries Increased savings in the U.S.
Higher interest rates More sustainable growth compared to rest of world Lower dollar U.S. Exports more attractive
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Low Dollar Scenario Results
Higher Ag Commodity Prices BUT
57
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BUT
• • Lower dollar value bucks a LT history Will President(s) and Congress be satisfied with a GDP that “falls” to a sustainable level?
• • • Impact of health care Afghanistan Will developing and emerging markets accept policies that “correct” imbalances that currently favor them?
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So, What’s the Future? A Guess:
59 • • Economic recovery in 2010 Comparatively more by U.S.
– U.S. Dollar increases – Dampens prospects for any big increases in U.S. Ag Commodity prices – Ag Economy slowly recovers to a steady state in 2011-2012 Potential 80’s style re-structuring (especially in the Dairy Industry)
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Longer Term Historical Perspective
60
5 4 3 7 6
Gross Domestic Product Growth Rate (through 2008)
World 2 1 0 1960 1966 1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008
Source: World Bank Group:
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Goss Domestic Product Growth Rate (through 2008)
7 6 3 2 5 4 High income 1 0 1960 1966 1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008
Source: World Bank Group:
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Gross Domestic Product Growth Rate (through 2008)
9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1960 1966 1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008
Source: World Bank Group:
Low & middle income © 2009
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Gross Domestic Product Growth Rate (through 2008)
14 12 10 2 0 8 6 4 East Asia & Pacific -2 1960 1967 1973 1979 1985 1991 1997 2003 2009
Source: World Bank Group:
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Where is Population Growth
7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2006
Source: World Bank Group:
World Low & middle income East Asia & Pacific © 2009
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Where’s the Population
World China India Indonesia Bangladesh Nigeria Pop. (bil) 6.667
1.330
1.148
.238
.154
.138
EU .491
U.S.
.303
Source: U.S. Bureau of Census % of World 19.9
17.2
3.6
2.3
2.1
45.1
7.4
4.5
Rank 1 2 6 9 11 4 5
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67
Must be a New Era
(Nominal Corn Prices, 1866-2008 4.50
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
1865 1885 1905 1925 1945
5.24
4.13
3.14
1965 1985 2005 2025
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68
Real Corn Price (2009 base)
Corn 25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
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Class III Prices – 1962-Present 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 Jan 60 Jan 65 Jan 70 Jan 75 Jan 80 Jan 85 Jan 90 Jan 95 Jan 00 Jan 05 Jan 10 1962-81 1981-88 1988-Aug 98 Sep 98-Feb 04 Mar 04 © 2009
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Real Class III Milk Price
(2009 base) 70 Milk 35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
1962 1972 1982 1992 2002
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Food For Thought
• • It’s cliché, but it is a different world Not worse, not better, just different – Emerging markets – Information economy – Energy – Climate Change 71
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Food For Thought
We have been here before: 1914 1945 1975
72
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• • • Swings between high, low, and zero profit margins will be – Greater – More often – More dependent on timing Need for greater cash management Margin Management • Changing cost structure 73
• • • • • Increased lender requirements, documentation, and verification Information management Heterogeneity Opportunities!!!
Marketing Psychiatrist 74
Return to Management and Labor
Milk Price 10 19,000 21,000 23,000
Production Matters
(143,977) (123,977) (103,977) (102,977)
11 12 13 14 15 16 17
(124,977) (105,977) (86,977) (67,977) (48,977) (29,977) (10,977) (60,977) (39,977) (18,977) 2,023 23,023 (80,977) (57,977) (34,977) (11,977) 11,023 34,023 57,023
18
8,023 44,023 $137 hay, $4.00 corn, $300 SBM 80,023
25,000
(83,977) (58,977) (33,977) (8,977) 16,023 41,023 66,023 91,023 116,023 75
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Decrease in Feed Costs
-15%
(85,938) (62,938) (39,938) (16,938) 6,062 29,062 52,062 75,062 98,062
-10% -5%
(70,206) (78,166) (47,206) (55,166) (24,206) (32,166) (1,206) (9,166) 21,794 44,794 67,794 90,794 13,834 36,834 59,834 82,834
23,000 Avg
(86,923) (63,923) (40,923) (17,923) 5,077 28,077 51,077 74,077 Increase in Feed Costs
5% 10% 15%
(96,117) (73,117) (50,117) (27,117) (4,117) 18,883 41,883 64,883 (105,311) (82,311) (59,311) (36,311) (13,311) 9,689 32,689 55,689 (114,505) (91,505) (68,505) (45,505) (22,505) 495 23,495 46,495 76
Management Matters
• • 110 MN and WI farms, 500-1,500 acres Average of 2006 and 2007 Net Ret.
Bottom 20%
7,737
20-40%
22,232
40-60% 60-80% Top 20%
52,427 39,856 110,988 Acres Yield Direct Exp.
340 164 385 308 165 387 407 178 392 237 174 376 416 183 372 77
Dairy Enterprise ($/cow) 1996-2007 (101-200 cows, no org. or RG, MN&WI)
180000 160000 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 20 %-tile 50 %-tile 80 %-tile Net Return to Mgt/Labor
Source: Center For Farm Financial Mgt.
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Futures Prices in Context (Comparison of Feb 7 to Sept. 14, 2007) 22 17 16 15 14 21 20 19 18 13 12 11 Jan Fe b M ar A pr M ay Ju n Ju l A ug Se p O ct N ov D ec Average
1996-2006 data
75 %tile (2/7) 2007 Futures (9/14) 2007 Anncd & Futures
80
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• Look Backwards - Meticulous Attention to Financials – Have a farm records system – Use the farm records system!
– Know your costs of production, Know your margin Know “at risk” versus “secured” costs – Sensitivity analysis – Prepare accurate financial statements
AND
Use them to evaluate your profit blueprint.
82
• Look Forwards: Cash Flow/Enterprise Budgets – Plan your production, plan your cash flow, communicate your plan, work your plan – Evaluate sensitivity •
TOTAL
Communications – lender, broker, and other advisors.
• Know what makes you money – Partial budgeting: production practices and inputs 83
Partial Budgeting
Additional Costs Additional Revenues
84
Reduced or Lost Revenues Reduced or Eliminated Costs Dollars Lost =________ Dollars Gained = _____ © 2009
Farm & Risk Management Team
• Know and use marketing tools and strategies Remember, It’s the Margin That Counts • Farm Programs • Insurance Instruments – LGM-Dairy, Crop insurance – Levels of coverage 85
• Strategies for Down Times – Flexible Lease Arrangements – Defer Capital Expenditures – Defer Income Taxes – Refinance long-term obligations – Borrowing against Equity capital, but with planned repayment – Compare financing rates Careful: one needs committed friends in down times Source: Edwards, William. “Managing through a recession: options for farm operators. Ag Decision Maker, Iowa State Extension 86
• Aligned/Cooperative Business Structures • Value-Added, Branded Products – Not less risk, just different • Change Your Marketing Mindset • Know where your risk is 87
Sources: Websites
• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • The Oil Drum: http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/10/5/215316/408 Association for the Study of Peak Oil: http://aspo-usa.com/ Oil Market Report: http://omrpublic.iea.org/ Now and Future: http://www.nowandfutures.com/index.html
WTRG Economics: http://www.wtrg.com/ World Bank Group: http://ddp-ext.worldbank.org/ext/DDPQQ/member.do?method=getMembers Farm Foundation: http://www.farmfoundation.org/ USDA Economic Research Service: http://www.ers.usda.gov/ Trading Charts, Inc: http://futures.tradingcharts.com/ CHOICES: http://www.choicesmagazine.org/magazine/issue.php
Foreign Agricultural Service: http://www.fas.usda.gov/default.asp
University of Illinois Farmdoc website: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu// Iowa State University Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/ University of Wisconsin, Center for Dairy Profitability: http://cdp.wisc.edu/ University of Minnesota Center for Farm Financial Management: http://www.finbin.umn.edu/ International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook database: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2009/02/weodata/index.aspx
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Farm & Risk Management Team
Sources: Written Articles
• • • •
Global Agricultural Supply and Demand: Factors Contributing to the Recent Increase in Food Commodity Prices.
USDA/ERS, July 2008. http://www.ers.usda.gov/Publications/WRS0801 / Bahn, Henry. “
Commodity Prices Rock World Markets: Structural Shift or Short Term Adjustments?”
Choices, AAEA, 2 nd qrt 2008 23(2). http://www.choicesmagazine.org/magazine/issue.php
• • • • Westhoff, Pat. “
Farm Commodity Prices: Why the Boom and What Happens Now?”
Choices, AAEA, 2 nd qrt 2008 23(2).
Lawrence, John D., James Mintert, John D. Anderson, and David P. Anderson. “
Feed Grains and Livestock: Impacts on Meat Supplies and Prices.”
Choices, AAEA, 2 nd qrt 2008 23(2).
Irwin, Scott H., Philip Garcia, Darrel L. Good and Eugene L. Kunda. “
Recent Convergence Performance of CBOT Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Futures Contracts.”
Choices, AAEA, 2 nd qrt 2008 23(2).
Mark, Darrell R., B. Wade Brorsen, Kim B. Anderson, and Rebecca M. Small. “
Price Risk Management Alternatives for Farmers in the Absence of Forward Contracts with Grain Merchants.”
Choices, AAEA, 2 nd qrt 2008 23(2).
Abbott, Philip C., Christopher Hurt, and Wallace E. Tyner.
“What’s Driving Food Prices?”
Report from the Farm Foundation, July 2008. http://www.farmfoundation.org/news/templates/template.aspx?articleid=404&zoneid=26 Issue Fortenbery, T. Randall and Hwanil Park.
“The Effect of Ethanol Production on the U.S. National Corn Price.”
Univ. of WI-Madison Dept. of Ag and Applied Econ: Staff Paper no. 523, April 2008.
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Farm & Risk Management Team
Sources: Written Articles
• • • • • Irwin, Scott. “Crop value and volatility in a new era” 2008 Illinois Farm Economics Summit, http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu//presentations/index.asp
.
Schnitkey, Gary. “Prospects for Crop Production Costs” 2008 Illinois Farm Economics Summit, http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu//presentations/index.asp
.
Schnitkey, Gary. “Farm Economics Facts & Opinions”, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, College of Agricultural, Consumer, and Environmental Sciencds, university of Illinois at Urbana-Shampaign, FEFO 08-13, July 11, 2008.
Duffy, Michael, and Darnell Smith. “Estimated Costs of Crop Production in Iowa- 2009,” Ag Decision Maker, Iowa State University, University Extension, FM-1712 Revised, December 2008.
Duffy, Mike. “Estimating costs of crop production for 2009,” Ag Decision Maker Newsletter, Iowa State University, University Extension, January 2009
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Farm & Risk Management Team