Transcript Slide 1
Presented by Dan Vishny, CPA, MBA
Principal – Promised Land Consulting
Chief Primate – Red Ape Cinnamon
Financial Statement Projections - Purposes
Reality check on Financial Goals & Objectives
Makes you define/quantify your goals & objectives
Demonstrates team is knowledgeable, realistic,
committed and on top of the business plan
You’ve done your homework
You understand the costs involved
You understand the market and its potential
Value estimate of the company and the ROI
Financial Projections
Define Your Financial Goals and Objectives
Sufficient funds to launch and execute your plan
Plan and track your cash flow requirements
Establish profitable operations by (date)
Re-invest profits in future growth (increase value of biz)
Provide shareholders liquidity/exit by (date) – align
expectations of investors and owners
Provide “what if” scenario analyses
Projections- Minimum Requirements
5 year Profit & Loss Statement
5 year Balance Sheet
5 year Statement of Cash Flows
Valuation Statement and ROI Analysis
Breakeven Analysis
What if Analysis
Details in appendices
Monthly 1st year
Quarterly years 2-3; annual for years 4-5
Provide Assumptions that drive your figures
Dan’s Financial Projections Template
CAUTION: This may not be the perfect one for you
Don’t use it blindly (use as a start and build on it)
Be careful when making changes (it’s excel)
Save often and different versions (so you can go back)
Dig into the formulas and how they flow
Make sure that the financials “foot”
The balance sheet balances
The cash account flows from the cash flow statement
Sample Financial Assumptions
Discount Rate of at least 12% (for most new ventures)
Sales that can be closed per month
Sales cycle-produce/sell/get paid
Revenue by month/quarter/year
Revenue growth rate
Costs as function of time
Employee growth/cost rates
Marketing and administrative expenses
Accounts payable/receivable terms
U.S. Custom duty rates: http://www.usitc.gov/tata/hts/
Inflation estimate
…..[others specific to Your business]
Assumptions- Anticipate the Questions
What will you charge for your product and why?
How do your marketing costs support your sales
growth?
How do you scale up your business?
How long does it take?
How much capital is required?
What is the effect on cash flow?
Compare to industry & competition (if possible)
Ratios, margin percentages, cost comparisons…..
10Q reports for public companies
ValueLine Investment Survey, Standard & Poor’s
Netadvantage Stock Reports, Bloomberg, Etrade….
Make sure that your assumptions are REASONABLE
Estimating Startup Costs
Office set up, computers, building improvements, etc.
Professional services (lawyers, accountants, etc.)
Web site development
Filing fees, licenses, patent expenses
Initial inventory levels
Initial marketing expenses (if necessary)
Others specific to your business
Don’t forget that you’ll need adequate working capital
to take you to your next infusion of cash
typically ~ 20% of the amount you raise
Keep 20% of each funding round in the bank account as a
cash reserve
Financial Elements – Income Statements
Purpose: to manage the company to profitability
Some key elements
Revenues Projected 5 years
Cost of Goods Sold
Sufficient back up for your unit costs (do your homework)
Make sure margins are sufficient
Why go into a low profit business?
There’s a reason that there’s a Starbuck’s on every corner
Operating Expenses
Compare to other companies
Use realistic estimates
Allow a miscellaneous cushion (shows your conservative)
Income Statement- (continued)
Allow for taxes (40%) AND tax loss carryforwards
Depreciation Expense
Noncash expense, but reduces your income tax expense
Net Income
Calculate ratios appropriate to your industry
If your ratios vary significantly, explain why
Balance Sheet
Purpose: Indicates financial position of the Company
Some key elements
CASH CASH CASH
If you run out of cash-game over
Equity or Net Worth (Assets minus Liabilities)
Bank financing will never be available if you do not have
sufficient positive equity…
you have no collateral!
Liquidity issues
Make sure the balance sheet balances
Statement of Cash Flows
Cash Flow helps you determine how much you need to reach
milestones, and when you need cash infusions.
Cash Inflows
Revenue Collections
Loans
Capital Investments
Grants & Other Public Funding
Cash Outflows
Purchases of Inventory
Purchases of Fixed Assets
Operating Expenses
Interest/Dividends to Investors
Income Taxes
Perform Cash Flow analyses on various “what if’s”
Raise $ before you are desperate!
Cash is King
Treat it with Respect--- Invest & Spend it Wisely
It’s a finite resource and has a way of running out
Operational Breakeven Analysis
Puts your business in perspective
Worst case scenario picture
Can you achieve break even and when?
Compare to competitors
Compare to last year
Do you have enough production capacity?
Do this analysis as often as possible
What If Analysis-Breakeven
What is the monthly breakeven in units based on various margins and increases in Marketing
Costs?
Marketing Costs
[---------------------- Margin Per Unit -----------------------]
10
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
$2,500
$0
46
40
35
55
$200,000
52
44
39
62
$400,000
57
49
43
69
$600,000
63
54
47
75
What is the monthly breakeven in dollars based on various margin %s and increases in Marketing
Costs?
Marketing Costs
[---------------------- Margin Per Unit -----------------------]
51,111
60%
65%
70%
40%
$0
$230,813
$213,452
$197,839
$346,239
$200,000
$258,890
$239,140
$221,649
$387,885
$400,000
$286,368
$264,829
$245,458
$429,552
$600,000
$314,146
$290,517
$269,268
$471,219
Accumulated Costs Break-even Analysis
(When do we get our money back?)
Total Accumulated Revenues =
Total Accumulated Costs
Comes directly from Income
Analysis
$
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Revenue
Cost
1
Cash Flow Positive occurs
ahead of B/E
B/E Analysis Chart must be in
your Plan
2
3
4
Time
5
Company Valuation
Return on Investment (ROI)
Terminal Value and ROI
Discounted Cash Flow
Sales Multiplier
EBITDA Multiplier
Sales of Comparable Companies
All the above
Whatever you choose
Make sure the ROI is adequate and reasonable
Successful Bootstrapping
Define your goal
Set the milestones
Sprint to the milestones (it’s not a marathon)
Invest in things that your customers see
Discipline- set the rules and live by them
Budget Shmudge it- spend as little as possible
Don’t stop digging for the hidden treasure
Get Financial Advice from people you trust
And not people who tell you what you want to hear
Financial Advice
♫ You gotta know when to hold em... ♫
Focus on getting the product to market
The “Language” of accounting & finance
Profit, Profit, Profit