Transcript 2G Scam

Current Affairs International
Nyayapati Gautam
Triumphant Institute of
Management Education P Ltd
www.time4education.com
North Korea – The World’s
Only Communist Monarchy
• An independent kingdom for much of its long
history, Korea was occupied by Japan
beginning in 1905 following the RussoJapanese War.
• Five years later, Japan formally annexed the
entire peninsula.
• Following World War II, Korea was split with
the northern half coming under Sovietsponsored Communist control.
• North Korea (DPRK), under its founder
President KIM Il Sung failed to conquer the
US-backed Republic of Korea (ROK) in the
Korean War (1950-53)
North Korea – The World’s
Only Communist Monarchy
• As a consequence he adopted a policy of
ostensible diplomatic and economic "selfreliance" as a check against outside influence.
• North Korea moulded political, economic, and
military policies around the core ideological
objective of eventual unification of Korea
under Pyongyang's control.
Kim Jong Il
• He was born in:
– 1942 in a log cabin frosted with snow at a
revolutionary training camp on holy Mount Paektu
– His birth foretold by a swallow and accompanied
by a double rainbow & a new star in the heavens.
– He learned to walk in three weeks, to talk in eight
– He wrote six operas and 1,500 books while a
student at Kim Il Sung University
– He scored five holes-in-one in his first game of golf.
– He was “the greatest writer who ever lived” and
“greatest musical genius”
– He was also the Glorious General from Heaven, the
Guiding Star of the 21st Century ….
– His bad temper could shake buildings; his cheerier
moods could melt ice; and on a visit to South Korea
fog shrouded him to keep him safe from snipers.
Kim Jong Il
• He was often portrayed as a platformheeled, bouffanted buffoon—a cartoon
villain.
• Yet he was coolly rational and, in the final
reckoning, successful.
• Not only did he himself die at liberty, but he
protected an entire generation of the narrow
elite who rose with him.
• And above all, Kim, the family man, ensured
that he passed his movie set to a chosen heir,
his pudgy third son, Kim Jong Un
Kim Jong Il
• Even as outsiders mocked him. Inside the
country, no one dared.
• Kim knew exactly how the population lined
up: loyal core, 5-25%; wavering, 50-75%;
hostile, 8-27%.
• But those who dissented—even in a whisper,
even by hanging his portrait askew—ended
in prison camps, subject to forced labour and
starvation.
• Perhaps one in 20 North Koreans passed
through Kim’s gulags.
• Possibly 200,000 remain there. The rest were
either brainwashed or pretended to be.
Kim Jong Il Era
• For years he was invisible
– Not seen by the world until the 1970s
– Never heard in North Korea until he came briefly
to the microphone, at a parade in 1992, to cry
“Glory to the heroic soldiers!”
• Yet since the 1960s he had been a feared
force in his father’s Propaganda and
Agitation Department:
– eliminating internal rivals
– possibly plotting foreign assassinations (the Korean
Air bombing of 1987, in which 115 died, and the
Rangoon bombing of 1983, killing three South
Korean ministers, were both attributed to him)
– building up the cult of his father in statues and
birthday celebrations (and the cult of himself too)
Kim Jong Il Era
• The staging of Kim’s funeral was to show that,
the regime has fallen into line behind the son.
– with his uncle and aunt as regents. Continuity is the
imperative.
• Kim Jong Il leaves behind two valuable prizes:
– nuclear weapons (and the leverage they offer)
– unambiguous support from China.
• Kim personality cult:
– It flows from powerful myths about race and
history. Above all is North Koreans’ sense of racial
purity.
– They have been taught to think of the Kims as
warm, doting parents, fiercely guarding a
vulnerable nation from American and Japanese
The Cracks…
• The famine of the late 1990s engendered
unprecedented cynicism towards the regime.
• Survival mechanisms that have proved more
durable than the state’s capacity to stamp
them out.
– Black markets have sprung up,
– A thriving petty trade across the border with China
– North Koreans watching South Korean soap operas
on smuggled DVD players now know that their
leaders have lied about the supposedly poor and
oppressed people in the South.
Problems for China
• The strategists in Beijing have propped up the
regime both because:
– They fear instability on their border
– They worry about a unified Korea, perhaps with
American troops up against the Chinese frontier
– Their dilemma is that whatever they do, North
Korea will eventually collapse.
• On the one hand, the lack of reform is leading North Korea
down a dead end.
• On the other, a more open country would surely spell the
end of the Kim dynasty.
• It is why Kim Jong Il never blessed change, no matter how
many times the Chinese showed him their economic miracle.
• Some in Beijing claim to see a reformist in the
uncle-regent, Jang Song Taek.
US & Korea
• China is likely to encourage reforms if:
– S. Korea and the US work harder to minimise the
dangerous consequences of collapse by cooperating to prevent the North’s nuclear, chemical
and biological weapons from falling into the wrong
hands.
– And they could make it far clearer to the Chinese
that once the peninsula is at peace there will be no
need for American troops to stay.
• The regrettable truth is that –
– Not just China but also America (fearful of another
global crisis), South Korea (fearful of the costs of
adopting a country that seems alien to many young
Koreans) and Japan (fearful of a united Korea)
have propped up a murderous regime. Korea’s
Kim Jong Un
• Kim junior is now officially in charge.
– He has been dubbed the “Young General”
– His dynastic succession, which had been in
preparation since 2009, was reaffirmed swiftly by
the state media.
– At just 27/28 years of age, educated in
Switzerland and a great fan of basketball, lacks
both experience and proof of loyalty from the
armed forces.
– He was installed as the country’s leader-in-waiting
little more than a year ago.
– By contrast his father had been groomed for
leadership for nearly 20 years, with careful
attention paid to establishing for him a cult of
personality in the image of his own father, the
dynasty’s founding dictator, Kim Il Sung.
What Now?
• North Korea’s is a government of competing
factions:
– the army, the Korean Workers’ Party and the
cabinet being the greatest
– uncertainty or crisis in the months ahead could upset
the delicate balance behind the dictatorship.
• Time for reform because:
– 2012, the 100th anniversary of Kim Il Sung’s birth
– It is supposed to be the year that North Korea
becomes a “strong and prosperous nation”
(kangsong taeguk).
– The justification for reform could be:
• Kim Jong Il built the nuclear weapons that made his nation
“strong”,
• Now it is the time make the country “prosperous”.
Will N. Korea Bite?
• North Korea is in desperate need of food aid.
– US had reportedly offered to ship nearly a quarter
of a million tonnes of "nutritional aid" on a monthto-month basis
– The condition is that it would be allowed to verify
that none of it ended up "on some leader's banquet
table".
– Pyongyang might suspend its uranium-enrichment
programme.
• However foreign powers can’t do much.
• N. Korea was “remarkably insensitive to
punishments and rewards” from abroad.
– It shrugs off both sanctions and support.
– Its behaviour is guided by domestic politics
MYANMAR
• Britain conquered Burma over a period of 62
years (1824-1886) and incorporated it into
its Indian Empire.
– Burma was administered as a province of India until
1937 when it became a separate, self-governing
colony.
– Independence from the Commonwealth was
attained in 1948.
• Gen. NE WIN dominated the government
from 1962 to 1988:
– first as military ruler, then as self-appointed
president, and later as political kingpin.
– In September 1988, the military deposed NE WIN
and established a new ruling junta.
Military Junta
• In August and September of 1988, Myanmar
saw massive pro-democracy demonstrations.
– Strikes and protests were held in virtually
everywhere
– It was against a military dictatorship that has held
Myanmar in an iron grip since the army seized
power in 1962 and abolished the country's
democratic constitution.
– Suu Kyi, the daughter of Myanmar's independence
hero Aung San, happened to be in the country at
that time (she then lived in England) and people
turned to her for leadership.
– She then emerged as the main leader of the
country's pro-democracy movement.
Aung Sang Suu Kyi
• Despite multiparty legislative elections in
1990 that resulted in the main opposition
party - the National League for Democracy
(NLD) - winning a landslide victory, the junta
refused to hand over power.
• NLD leader and Nobel Peace Prize recipient
AUNG SAN SUU KYI, who was under house
arrest from 1989 to 1995 and 2000 to
2002, was imprisoned in May 2003 and
subsequently transferred to house arrest.
• She was finally released in November 2010.
Back to … Military Junta
• But the government didn't fall.
– It retreated into the background, and on Sept. 18,
1988, the military moved in, not to seize power -which it already had -- but to shore up a regime
overwhelmed by popular protest.
– The result was a brutal massacre. Thousands of
marchers were mowed down by machine-gun fire,
protesters were shot in custody, and the prisons
were filled with people of all ages and from all
walks of life.
• Western countries, led by the United States,
condemned the carnage.
– Sanctions were imposed on the regime,
– No effect.
– Sanctions turned it into an international outcast.
China enters the scene
• China took full advantage of the situation.
– In the1985 edition Beijing Review an article
outlined the possibilities of finding an outlet for
trade for China's landlocked southern provinces of
Yunnan and Sichuan through Myanmar to the Indian
Ocean.
– It also mentioned the Burmese railheads of
Myitkyina and Lashio in the north and northeast,
and the Irrawaddy River as possible conduits for
Chinese exports.
– This caused the West to rethink its Myanmar policy
– The military leadership also got uncomfortable at
its growing dependence on China .
Reform Process
• Myanmar's reform process began sometime in
2007 or 2008, possibly in the wake of the
2007 Saffron Revolution of Buddhist monks.
• President Thein Sein's government has begun
implementing some of the country's most
serious political reforms in a decade.
– It has allowed more open discussion of political and
economic reform.
– Suspended construction of a Chinese-funded dam
due to the population's concerns about its
environmental side effects
– Most prominently freed Suu Kyi.
Reform Process - Gathering
Pace
• In early February, for the first time in memory,
the finance minister revealed details of the
government budget.
– In a speech to parliament!!! he also divulged how
much Myanmar owed in foreign debt ($11 billion).
• Then, a couple of days later the Govt.
announced it will consider allowing monitors
into the country for by-elections on April 1st.
– It would be an extraordinary step.
– These will be the first parliamentary seats to be
contested by Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League
for Democracy (NLD), since it was unbanned by the
government just a few months ago.
– Suu Kyi herself is contesting and she recently held
Reform Process - Gathering
Pace
• Parliament is also considering a new media
law that would, in theory, give Myanmar one
of the most liberal reporting environments in
the region.
• Only a year ago papers were not allowed
even to mention Ms Suu Kyi’s name.
• Headlines like these were used “Sunderland
Freeze Chelsea”, “United Stunned by Villa” &
“Arsenal Advance to Grab Their Hope” to
communicate the same.
WHY THE REFORMS?
• Long-term anxieties contributed to the
generals’ change of heart.
– After decades in power the regime became
increasingly aware that once-rich Myanmar had in
its hands fallen embarrassingly far behind the
neighbours.
• The reform process was greatly accelerated
last year by the Arab spring.
• Thein Sein, a former general who became the
new president in March 2011, succeeding the
hardline General Than Shwe was an
enthusiastic Reformer.
– Thein Sein is actually ready to admit to failures and
says the country must learn from others.
WHY THE REFORMS?
• Another person who testifies to the president’s
sincerity is Ms Suu Kyi.
• The government knows that Ms Suu Kyi has the
first and last word on lifting any sanctions, a
powerful bargaining position.
– Yet Ms Suu Kyi has had to be flexible too.
– She surprised her supporters by running for
parliament
– It looks like she has reneged on her principled
opposition to participating in politics under the
terms of a constitution, passed in 2008, which,
above all, entrenches the army in politics.
Pragmatic Reforms
• Both Mr Thein Sein and Ms Suu Kyi have
learned the virtues of pragmatism.
– At their crucial meeting last August some sort of
deal was worked out, and after that the pace of
change quickened.
– Broadly, it seems that Thein Sein promised to push
ahead with the release of political prisoners, and
give the nod to political reforms that might one day
allow the NLD to take power.
– In exchange, Ms Suu Kyi promised to rejoin (and so
legitimise) the political process, and to work to lift
sanctions.
– Tacitly, at least, the NLD seems to have agreed that
no retribution or prosecutions will follow against the
generals for past crimes should they one day lose
power.
MALDIVES
• Maldives was long a sultanate, first under
Dutch and then under British protection.
• It became a republic in 1968, three years
after independence.
• President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom
dominated the islands' political scene for 30
years, elected to six successive terms by
single-party referendums.
• Following riots in the capital Male in August
2003, the president and his government
pledged to embark upon democratic reforms
including a more representative political
system and expanded political freedoms.
Maldives - Background
• Progress was sluggish and many promised
reforms were slow to be realized.
• Nonetheless, political parties were legalized
in 2005.
• In June 2008, a constituent assembly - Special
Majlis - finalized a new constitution, which was
ratified by the president in August.
• The first-ever presidential elections under a
multi-candidate, multi-party system were held
in October 2008.
• Gayoom was defeated in a poll by Nasheed
a political activist who had been jailed many
years earlier by the former regime.
Maldives – Some
information
• Area: 298 sq km
• Tourism, Maldives' largest economic activity,
accounts for 28% of GDP and more than
60% of foreign exchange receipts.
• Over 90% of government tax revenue comes
from import duties and tourism-related taxes.
• Fishing is the second leading sector, but the
fish catch has dropped sharply in recent
years.
The Coup
• Nasheed, known by his nickname “Anni”
relinquished his presidency in a brief press
conference on February 7th.
– Something forced on him at gunpoint, he later said.
– After a night “in protective custody”, he was freed
and the next day took to the streets, leading a
rally of his Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP)
which ended in arrests and violent scuffles, in which
he was hurt.
• The vice-president, Waheed Hassan, had
been sworn in as his replacement.
– Nasheed’s supporters see the new man as an
puppet, with the real power-grabbers being close
to Maumoon Abdul Gayoom.
Nasheed & MDP
• Nasheed won 54% of the vote.
– His charisma soon charmed the outside world
– He also indulged in shrewd publicity stunts that
were aimed at drawing attention to the particular
danger climate change poses to the Maldives
– Nasheed held the world’s first (scuba-enabled)
underwater cabinet meeting, and suggested his
country set aside some of its tourism earnings to
buy a new homeland.
• But from the beginning, the MDP has struggled
to remake the Maldives.
– The judiciary has blocked efforts to reform and to
prosecute members of the Gayoom regime.
– Nasheed’s detractors allege that, in response, he
acquired intolerance of dissent like Gayoom.
Downfall
• What precipitated his downfall was the arrest
of a judge accused of being in Mr Gayoom’s
pocket.
– That arrest, which was condemned as
unconstitutional, galvanised nightly protests in Male.
– When some of the police mutinied and joined the
protesters, it was obvious that Nasheed’s days
were numbered.
– The offending judge has now issued an order for
Mr Nasheed’s arrest.
• One element of the opposition to him is
Islamic.
– After he resigned, there were soon stories of the
alcohol and “hash oil” allegedly found in his home.
Not the First Coup
Operation Cactus - November 3, 1988
ISRAEL AND IRAN
• U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta
apparently predicted that Israel will attack
Iran and its nuclear complex "in April, May or
June.“ ! ! ! ! !
Why would Israel do that?
Time pressure
• Why so soon?
– The Iranian program is still under the supervision of
IAEA inspectors and Iran has not made any moves
to "break out" toward the production of bombgrade highly enriched uranium.
– However Iran's uranium enrichment effort continues
to advance, even after the Stuxnet computer attack
and the assassination of several of its nuclear
scientists.
– According to the report, Iran seems to be
successfully installing advanced, high-efficiency
uranium-enrichment centrifuges, which means a
significant increase in enrichment capacity and
output in the near future.
Why would Israel do that?
• More importantly - from Israel's perspective –
– Iran is now installing centrifuge cascades into the
Fordow mountain site near Qom.
– This bunker is too deep for Israeli bombs to
penetrate.
Risks from Israeli
perspective
• Monitoring is definitely on but as Tehran
undoubtedly assumes, such a "breakout"
(tossing out the inspectors and quickly
enriching to the bomb-grade level) would
lead to air strikes from Israel.
• Israeli leaders may have concluded that Iran
could break out after the Fordow site is
operational. (Later in 2012)
Is Military action enough?
Alternatives to military action now fall short
• For the Israelis starting a war is risky.
– There should be convincing reasons for discarding
the non-military alternatives.
• So why can't Israel's secret but widely
assumed nuclear arsenal deter an Iranian
nuclear strike?
– Israel's territory and population are so small that
even one nuclear blast would be devastating.
• Even if Iran sought a nuclear weapons
capability solely to establish its own defensive
deterrent, the outcome would be gross
instability in the region in the eyes of Israel.
Escalation Dominance
The benefits of escalation
• A strike on Iran's nuclear complex would be at
the outer boundary of the Israeli Air Force's
capabilities.
– Israel's small inventory of bunker-buster bombs may
damage the underground uranium enrichment plant
at Natanz, but they will likely have no effect on the
Fordow mountain complex.
• Iran has undoubtedly dispersed and hidden
many other nuclear facilities.
• An Israeli strike is thus likely to have only a
limited and temporary effect on Iran's nuclear
program.
Escalation Dominance
• So, why bother?
– Israel's leaders may actually prefer a wider
escalating conflict.
– This especially so before Iran becomes a nuclear
weapons state.
– Under this theory, Israel would take the first shot.
– Israel might then prefer Iranian retaliation, which
would then give it the excuse for broader strikes
against Iran's oil industry and power grid etc.
– It would be even better if Iran were to block the
Strait of Hormuz or attack U.S. forces in the region.
– Because this would bring U.S. Central Command
into the war and result in even more punishment for
Iran.
– “Escalation Dominance”
End Game
The End Game
• War of attrition.
• Slow down progress in Nuclear development.
• International sanctions – weaken the civilian
economy and reduce political support for the
regime.
• The stable and favorable outcome for Israel
would be either Tehran's abandonment of its
nuclear program
• Or an internal rebellion against the regime.