Transcript WRF Standard Initialization

The Developmental Testbed Center (DTC)
Steve Koch, NOAA/FSL
A facility where the NWP research and operational communities
interact to accelerate testing and evaluation of new models and
techniques for research applications and operational
implementation, without interfering with current operations
Unidata presentation
7 February 2005
DTC Accomplishments since April 2003
Strong working relationship between central DTC partners
(FSL and NCAR), NCEP, and AFWA
Completed the basic WRF Reference Code (including
NCEP Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) and NCAR
Advanced Research WRF (ARW) dynamic cores)
Ported NCEP Post and Verification codes and the NMM to
iJet (also transferred to NCAR, NCEP, & AFWA computers)
for use in the Test Plan work
SI able to initialize NMM WRF (joint EMC/FSL effort)
Visiting scientist program initiated in summer 2004
Completed WRF Test Plan: WRF EM core implemented at
EMC as part of Initial Operating Capability
WRF Test Plan: Getting to the NCEP IOC
DTC demonstrated the capabilities of the candidate dynamical
cores to qualify them for a 6-member WRF IOC ensemble
system to run daily in High Resolution Window (HRW) domains:
= NCEP NMM + NCAR ARW dynamical WRF cores
+ NMM and ARW cores with switched physics packages
+ Model variants using bred Initial / Boundary Conditions
Ensemble should improve accuracy over a single deterministic
forecast and a measure of uncertainty
IOC implemented 21 Sept 2004, but with only 2 members (the
two dynamical cores without physics swapping). Full 6-member
ensemble is scheduled for May 2005 implementation at NCEP.
DWFE Core Objectives
Two primary operational objectives:
1. Compare Eta-12 to WRF run at 5 km grid spacing with explicit
convection (no CP scheme) over CONUS during a winter season
2. Expose forecasters to future WRF capabilities before WR-NAM
Two primary research objectives:
1. Do encouraging 4-km BAMEX WRF runs (summer 03, 04)
provide forecast value during winter and for longer lead
times (~48h) than in BAMEX?
2. Determine extent to which gravity waves, lake-effect snow,
CAD, coastal fronts, etc. can be skillfully forecast
DWFE WRF Model Domain
DWFE domain covers the Gulf of Mexico, Canadian
cold air source, Gulf Stream, and upstream conditions
DWFE WRF Model Configuration
FSL and NCAR are running 2 different versions of WRF:
2 different Dynamical Cores (NMM & ARW)
2 different Physics Packages (NCEP & NCAR)
Explicit Convection (run without CP scheme)
Uses 38 levels, 5-km resolution
Initialized at 0000 UTC, forecasts out to 48 hours
Initial and boundary conditions from operational Eta:
00 UTC Eta212 grids for both runs
These grids have a resolution of 40 km
WRF is a modeling system, not a model
WRF is designed so that
model configurations
can be interchanged
easily
WRF makes it easy to:
create new model
components
share parameterizations
efficiently transfer research
findings to operations
NCEP mixed
KF CP
Kessler MP
NMM core
BMJ
PBL, etc
Purdue-Lin
Grell
EM core
Ferrier MP
Explicit
Etc…
DWFE WRF Model Physics Suites
Run 1: ARW, NCAR Physics Suite
NOAH 5-layer land-surface model (LSM)
WSM 5-class microphysics
No cumulus parameterization
Yong-Sei University (YSU) PBL
Dudhia shortwave
RRTM longwave
Run 2: WRF-NMM, NCEP Physics Suite
NOAH 5-layer land-surface model (LSM)
Ferrier microphysics (as in Eta)
No cumulus parameterization
Mellor-Yamada-Janjic 2.5 PBL (as in Eta)
Eta (Lacis-Hansen shortwave)
Eta (Fels-Schwartzkopf longwave)
DWFE Dissemination of Model Products
FX-Net and AWIPS (by
1400 UTC) offers
diagnostic flexibility
and ability to see full
details
DTC web site
(and to JOSS):
Forecaster Preparation for the DWFE
An Operational Introduction to the Weather
Research & Forecasting (WRF) Modeling System
5-km WRF
BMJ
NWS-NCSU CSTAR
VISITVIEW PRESENTATION
RFC 10-km
analysis
5-km WRF
explicit
Gary Lackmann, NCSU
With contributions from
Michael Brennan, Stephen Jascourt, Steve Koch,
Jeff Waldstreicher, Kelly Mahoney, David Novak,
Wei Wang, WRF Tutorial Class & others
1
DWFE Verification Activities
On this page will be links to these verification tools:
(1) Grid-to-Point precipitation tool: produced using the FSL Real-Time Verification
System (RTVS), this verification tool takes model forecast values and interpolates
them to hourly HADS gauge locations. Statistics are provided for whatever models,
forecast period, and overall time period one chooses.
(2) VSDB web tool: forecast values are compared with surface and upper-air
rawinsonde observations that are gathered by NCEP for performing their next
model analysis. Statistics will also be available for Grid-to-Grid precipitation.
(3) Ebert-McBride Grid-to-Grid precipitation tool: an entity-based approach,
which decomposes the total forecast error into such components as displacement,
volume, and pattern error of Contiguous Rain Areas. Technique was applied by FSL
to verification of mesoscale convective systems in IHOP.
Eta-12
WRF-ARW
WRF-NMM
RTVS precipitation
verification of 6-h
forecasts over the
entire DWFE domain
10 Jan - 2 Feb 2005
http://www-ad.fsl.noaa.gov/fvb/rtvs/wrf/DWFE/station/index.html
Eta-12
WRF-ARW
WRF-NMM
RTVS precipitation
verification of 24-h
forecasts over the
entire DWFE domain
10 Jan - 2 Feb 2005
http://www-ad.fsl.noaa.gov/fvb/rtvs/wrf/DWFE/station/index.html
DWFE uses the NCEP Verification System
DWFE uses the NCEP Verification System
Archival of DWFE Model Runs
We are archiving the 3-hourly output files from both the ARW
and NMM runs on the NCAR MSS at full model resolution on a
daily basis for use in future research studies.
We are archiving two types of output files for each model:
1) wrfout files
NETCDF format
Raw model output on its native grid
2) post-processed files (meso.AWPDWFE)
GRIB format
Model fields run through NCEP post processor
Post processor interpolates raw output to constant pressure surfaces
and then to a common horizontal grid
Examples of Phenomena
Forecast by DWFE WRF Models
FSL is also making available on its FX-Net system the
ability to display the 8-10 km High-Resolution Window
(HRW) domain WRF model runs from NCEP
Lake Effect Snowbands:
17 January 2005
KBUF 1835Z Base Reflectivity
WRF-ARW 18h Forecast
Precipitation for 1800 UTC
1000-850 hPa Lapse Rates
Forecast by NMM at 1200 UTC
WRF-NMM 18h Forecast
Precipitation for 1800 UTC
Narrow Reflectivity Bands:
23 January 2005
ARW 3-h forecast Composite Reflectivity
Lake-effect
snowbands
Lake-effect
snowbands
Narrow ColdFrontal Rainband
Narrow ColdFrontal Rainband
0600 UTC Radar Mosaic
Topographically forced
Snowbands in Blizzard of
23 January 2005
Total Snow Accumulation
Hudson Valley
CT River Valley
WRF-ARW 00Z 22Jan05 F24
WRF-ARW 00Z 22Jan05 F27
988
WRF-ARW 00Z 22Jan05 F30
982
STMAS 5-km Surface Mesoanalysis for 0300 UTC
995
Curiosities:
Potential Vorticity Streamers
Downwind of Mountain Peaks
2 February 2005
700 hPa Vertical Vorticity
from 12h WRF-NMM Forecast
Curiosities:
Reflectivity Structures in Marine
Boundary Layer
23 January 2005
Cloud Streets
Marine Stratus
Mesoscale Cellular
Convection
Curiosities:
Diabatically-generated
Mesovortex over Lake Erie
22 January 2005
STMAS Analysis for 1900 UTC 22Jan05
ARW-5 18h Forecast for 1800 UTC 22Jan05
Eta-12 18h Forecast for 1800 UTC 22Jan05
Concluding Statements
The DTC is producing a very large set of
valuable and accessible high-resolution model
data for numerical modeling and mesoscale
process research studies.
The DTC is creating a unique and powerful
infrastructure for the research community to
participate in the testing and evaluation of
contributed model codes with the potential to
lead to future operational improvements.