Transcript Folie 1

Outlook for Ukraine agriculture:
results from AGMEMOD model
Guna Salputra (LVAEI)
Myrna van Leeuwen (LEI)
Oksana Golovnya (KNEU)
Serhiy Demyanenko (KNEU)
International scientific-methodical conference
”Legal-organizational Forms of Agri-industrial Formations: Status, Prospects and the Impact
on Rural Development”
Vadym Hetman Kyiv National Economic University (KNEU)
Faculty of Economics of Agri-industrial Comlex, Kyiv, November 11-12, 2011
Table of content
• What is AGMEMOD
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Objectives and (short) history
Methodology from data handling to output analysis
Data and variables
Structure of the model
• Baseline scenario assumptions
• Ukraine agricultural outlook to 2025 for grains
and oilseeds, meat, dairy
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AGMEMOD
AGriculture MEmber States MODelling
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Partial equilibrium
Dynamic
Recursive
Econometrically estimated
Multi-commodity markets and multi-country combined
model
Incorporates 29 individual country models –
24 EU countries, Croatia, FYR Macedonia,
Turkey, Ukraine, Russia.
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Objectives of AGMEMOD
To make medium term annual projections and
simulations for the main European agricultural
sectors in order to
– establish a reliable baseline and
– evaluate measures, programmes and policies in
agriculture at the EU level as well as at the standalone country (Member State, Accession Candidate
and individual neighbouring countries) level with an
emphasis on supply, demand, trade and prices.
Vadym Hetman Kyiv National Economic University
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History of AGMEMOD
Part I
2001-2005
EU15 country models
Organisation of project
Part II
2006-2008
EU27 combined model
Extension of Partnership
Part III
2009-2010
Extension with Turkey
Part III
2010-2011
Extention with Russia, Ukraine
Endogeous world price
Extension Kazakhstan
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EU funds
5th FP
EU funds
6th FP
IPTS funds
National
funds
From data handling to output analysis
• Compile data on commodity supply/demand balances and
macroeconomic and policy assumptions
• Model specification for Ukrainian agricultural situation taking
into account its specific structures and agricultural and trade
policy
• Estimate/calibrate the specified equations with Eviews and
transfer into the AGMEMOD GAMS framework
• Run , solve and validate the model
• Generate baseline and scenario analysis
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From data handling to output analysis
Errors/Warnings
Data
Equations
RU-ModelEquatons.xls
UA-ModelEquatons.xls
RU-Datagmemod.xls
UA-Datagmemod.xls
AssumptionsInput.xls
PolicyHarmon.xls
Agmemod2Gams
Eviews
Knowledge
GAMS model
RU-Equations.gms
UA-Equations.gms
Senarios
graphs
maps
tables
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Data and variables in AGMEMOD
Endogenous variables
• Prices
• Supply/demand balances
– production, consumption, stocks and trade
Exogenous variables
• Macroeconomic indicators
– GDP, population, inflation rate, exchange rates UAH/USD and UAH/EUR
• Agricultural policy indicators
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–
–
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intervention prices
payments per ha/animal/production
input subsidies
production quota
• Trade policy indicators
– import and export duties
– Import and export quotas and tariffs
– quota tariff rates
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AGMEMOD Ukraine model structure
RU and UA models
n commodity markets
macroeconomic
variables
Harvested
land/ animal
Yield per ha/
per animal
RU and UA national policy
variables (minimum prices,
quota, payments)
Production
Beginning stocks
Feed use
Consumption
Food use
Ending stocks
Imports
Net export
Exports
Price
transmission
RU and UA trade
isntruments (import duties
and tariffs, export quota)
AGMEMOD
Key price
World market price (trade
agreements)
Intervention price
EU27 selfsufficiency rate
EU27
+
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Baseline narratives for Ukraine
• Projections based on:
– historical trends
– taking account of the world market, macroeconomic and
agricultural policy environment to 2025 as far as known at
this moment
• Status-quo situation up to 2025:
– macro-economic projections (population, GDP, inflation,
exchange rates) for Ukraine
– continuation of specific Ukrainian agricultural policy
instruments
– continuation of trade policy of Ukraine
– no assumptions on ongoing Doha Development Round of
WTO
– FAPRI April 2011 world prices incorporated
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UA baseline outlook
Grains and oilseeds
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Soft wheat: competitive UA price compared to world and
EU price
Soft wheat price (€/100kg)
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
1999
2001
2003
2005
Ukraine
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
EU
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2019
2021
2023
2025
World
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Rapeseeds: UA price below world and EU price
Rapeseeds price (€/100 kg)
50.0
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
1999
2001
2003
2005
Ukraine
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
EU
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2021
2023
2025
World
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UA baseline: grains and oilseeds
• Area harvested:
– total grains area harvested projected to show moderate
increase
– 80% of grains area is allocated to soft wheat, barley
and maize
– total oilseeds area harvested projected to grow in
reaction on
• UA is becoming an important rapeseeds producer and exporter
to EU countries due to increasing biodiesel demand
• soybeans area would grow: UA is a protein-deficient country
and soybean meals demand is expected to grow in answer on
the actual rise of investments into meat and dairy sectors
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Soft wheat: production mainly driven by yield grow, slightly increase
of wheat area harvested
25
Soft wheat (mio tons)
Production
20
15
Net-Exports
Non-feed use
10
5
Feed use
0
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
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Barley: UA belongs to main barley exporters (80% to Middle East);
higher feed use demand from increasing beef and poultry sectors
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Barley (mio tons)
16
Production
14
12
10
Non-feed use
8
Net-Exports
6
4
Feed use
2
0
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
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Rapeseeds: higher production expected as answer on higher demand
for biodiesel (eg from EU); increasing net-export position
4
3
Production
Rapeseeds (mio tons)
3
2
Net-Exports
2
1
1
Feed use
0
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
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UA baseline outlook
Livestock and meat
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Beef: UA price follows the world price; it is slightly declining due to
increasing self-sufficiency rate; UA is net-exporter
Beef price (€/100kg)
400.0
350.0
300.0
250.0
200.0
150.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Ukraine
EU
World
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Pork: UA price close to EU price and significantly above world price;
import tariffs; UA is net-importer of pork
Pork price (€/100kg)
180.0
160.0
140.0
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Ukraine
EU
AGMEMOD workshop, Brussels, 13/14 September 2011
World
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Poultry: UA price follows the world price; UA price is below the world
and EU prices; UA has turned into a net-exporter of poultry
250.0
Poultry price (€/100 kg)
200.0
150.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
1999
2004
2009
Ukraine
2014
EU
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Beef: increase of beef production, important factor - increasing slaughter
weight
Beef (1000 tons)
800
700
Production
600
500
400
Domestic use
300
Net-Exports
200
100
0
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
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Pork: import tariffs prevent influence from ROW; UA expected to
remain net-importer
800
700
• con
Pork (1000 tons)
Production
600
500
400
Domestic use
300
200
100
Net-Exports
0
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
-100
-200
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Poultry: 70% of production is concentrated into 2 vertically integrated
companies; significant investments in more integration expected; UA was
net-importer to 2008, but has turned into a net-exporter
1200
Poultry (1000 tons)
Production
1000
800
Domestic use
600
400
Net-Exports
200
0
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
-200
-400
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UA baseline outlook
Milk and dairy
25
Milk: price lower than EU price
Milk price (€/100kg)
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1999
2004
2009
Ukraine
2014
2019
2024
EU
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Butter: domestic price follows same patterns as world and EU prices,
but at lower level
Butter price (€/100kg)
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1999
2004
Ukraine
2009
2014
EU
2019
2024
World
27
Cheese: UA price lower than world and EU prices; slightly increasing
due to increasing demand
Cheese price (€/100kg)
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1999
2004
2009
Ukraine
2014
EU
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World
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Butter: stable production and domestic use projected; declining
domestic use due to stable cons/head, but decreasing population; this
enforces UA net-export position
200
Butter (1000 tons)
Production
150
100
Domestic use
50
Net-Exports
0
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
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Cheese: projected production increase (1%/year) linked to projected
higher milk production; yearly 1.7% rise in cheese cons/cap; UA
keeps net-export position but with declining tendency
450
Cheese (1000 tons)
400
Production
350
300
250
200
Net-Exports
150
100
Domestic use
50
0
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
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Conclusions on baseline outlook
– UA is competitive partner on world crop
markets and under baseline is projected to
remain net-exporter of grains and oilseeds
– UA milk production expected to increase, which
leads to higher beef production as well
– UA is projected to remain net-importer of pork;
relatively high domestic price compared to
other meats
– UA is projected to remain a net-exporter of
dairy products with a movement towards
production of cheese and fresh products
(higher value products)
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Thank you for attention
More information:
www.agmemod.eu ,
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