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900 Lydia Street - Austin, Texas 78702
Phone (512) 320-0222 – fax (512) 320-0227 www.cppp.org
The Texas Challenge
July 2005
F. Scott McCown, Executive Director
[email protected]
The Educational Challenge
• Large and rapidly growing child population
-Second largest child population in U.S.
-Largest growth between 2000-2003:
350,000 additional children
183,000 more than California
-By 2040, school enrollment to double
• Increasingly expensive to educate
-Just short of a quarter of Texas children live in
poverty (rank 8th) and another quarter live in
homes that are economically disadvantaged
The Financial Challenge
• To spend more, somebody has to pay
more.
• Our regressive tax system can’t generate
any more money.
The Bottom
PaysWith
More
thanIncome
It Can Afford
Households
the Lowest
Pay the Highest Percentage in State and Local Taxes
Percentage of Household Income Paid in Taxes
15%
14.2%
12%
9%
8.2%
7.0%
6.5%
6%
5.1%
3%
0%
<$21,797
$21,797-39,743
$39,743-61,734
Household Income
$61,734-96,693
>$96,693
The Money is at the Top
$350
$300
Total Income Per Group
($ billions)
$250
$200
$150
$100
$50
$0
<$21,797
$21,797-39,743
$39,743-61,734
Household Income
$61,734-96,693
>$96,693
Three Ways for the Top To Avoid
Paying More
• Force the poor to pay through
regressive taxes—limited $$
• Fund only the top by ending
equity—limited geographically
• Fund only the top through
vouchers—big bonanza
The Top’s Essential Strategy
1. Undermine the public’s
confidence in public education so
that the public is unwilling to
invest additional dollars.
2. This strategy becomes self
fulfilling. Public education can’t
perform because it lacks money.
The Texas Miracle
1994 - 2004
• Equity dollars
• Accountability system
Academic Success In Texas
TAAS (1994-2002)
Percent of Students Passing the Reading Component of
the TAAS Test
Percent Passing
100.00%
90.00%
4th
80.00%
10th
70.00%
60.00%
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Source: Texas Kids Count analysis of Texas Education Agency Data
Percent of Students Passing the Math Component of the
TAAS Test
100.00%
Percent Passing
90.00%
80.00%
4th
10th
70.00%
60.00%
50.00%
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Source: Texas Kids Count analysis of Texas Education Agency Data
Academic Success In Texas
TAKS (2003-2005)
5th Grade Results
Percent of Students Meeting Standard on 5th
Grade TAKS Reading* Test
Percent Met Standard
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
White
All Students
Hispanic
Black
40%
2003
*Data are for English Version only
Source: Texas Education Agency
2004
2005
Change from 2003 to 2005 in 5th Grade Students
Meeting Standard for TAKS Reading*
14%
13%
12%
10%
10%
8%
8%
8%
8%
8%
6%
5%
4%
2%
0%
All
African Hispanic
Students American
*Data are for English Version only
Source: Texas Education Agency
White
Econ. Dis.
LEP
SPED
Percentage of Students Meeting Standard on 5th Grade
TAKS Math*
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
White
All Students
Hispanic
Black
40%
2003
*Data are for English Version only
Source: Texas Education Agency
2004
2005
Change in Percentages Over Time
Change from 2003-2005 in Students who Met
Standard on 5th Grade TAKS Math*
25%
20%
20%
16%
15%
16%
16%
18%
14%
12%
10%
5%
0%
All
Students
African
American
*Data are for English Version only
Source: Texas Education Agency
Hispanic
White
Econ. Dis.
LEP
SPED
Academic Success In Texas
TAKS (2003-2005)
8th Grade Results
Percent of Students Meeting Standard on 8th
Grade TAKS Reading
95%
90%
White
85%
80%
All Students
75%
70%
65%
Hispanic
Black
60%
2003
Source: Texas Education Agency
2004
2005
Change from 2003 to 2005 in Percent Meeting Standard
on 8th Grade TAKS Reading
14%
13%
12%
9%
10%
7%
8%
6%
10%
6%
5%
5%
4%
2%
0%
All
Students
African
American
Source: Texas Education Agency
Hispanic
White
Econ. Dis.
LEP
SPED
Percent Met Standard on 8th Grade TAKS Math
80%
70%
White
60%
All Students
50%
40%
Hispanic
30%
African
American
20%
2003
Source: Texas Education Agency
2004
2005
Percent Change Over Time
Change from 2003-2005 in Percent of 8th Grade Students
Meeting Standard on TAKS Math
14%
12%
12%
12%
10%
12%
10%
10%
9%
8%
7%
6%
4%
2%
0%
All
Students
African
American
Source: Texas Education Agency
Hispanic
White
Econ. Dis.
LEP
SPED
Academic Success In Texas
TAKS (2003-2005)
11th Grade Results
Percent Students Met Standard on 11th Grade
English/Language Arts TAKS
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
White
All Students
Hispanic
African
American
2003
Source: Texas Education Agency
2004
2005
Change from 2003-2005 in Percent of Students Meeting
Standard on 11th Grade English/Language Arts TAKS
Percent Change Over Time
40%
35%
30%
36%
34%
30%
28%
26%
23%
25%
20%
14%
15%
10%
5%
0%
All
Students
African
Hispanic
American
Source: Texas Education Agency
White
Econ. Dis.
LEP
SPED
Percent of Students Who Met Standard on 11th Grade
TAKS Math
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
White
All Students
40%
30%
20%
Hispanic
African
American
2003
Source: Texas Education Agency
2004
2005
Change from 2003-2005 in Percent of Students who Met
Standard on 11th Grade TAKS Math
Percent Change Over Time
35%
30%
29%
28%
31%
30%
27%
26%
25%
20%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
All
Students
African
American
Source: Texas Education Agency
Hispanic
White
Econ. Dis.
LEP
SPED
Academic Success In Texas
National Assessment of
Educational Progress (NAEP)
Mathematics
National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP)
Texas's Mathmatics Achievement Over Time
100
1
90
14
3
2
22
24
3
3
15
18
2
4
21
21
29
80
Percent of Students
4
70
41
35
39
60
43
44
50
44
50
49
40
Below Basic
30
20
47
44
31
10
24
41
33
31
2000
2003
18
0
1992n
1996n
2000
Grade 4
2003
Advanced
Proficient
Basic
1992n
1996n
Grade 8
Percent
Percent of Students Taking the NAEP Math Test Scoring
Below the Basic Level
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
47
44
41
33
31
31
24
18
1992n 1996n
2000
Grade 4
2003
1992n 1996n
2000
Grade 8
2003
Percent of Students Taking the NAEP Math Test
Scoring At or above the Proficient Level
35
33
30
Percent
25
25
26
20
15
18
21
23
25
15
10
5
0
1992n 1996n 2000
Grade 4
2003
1992n 1996n
2000
Grade 8
2003
Percent of Students who took
the test
Students At or Above the Proficient Level on
NAEP Math Tests
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1992n 1996n 2000
2003
1992n 1996n 2000
Grade 4
Grade 8
Texas
National
2003
Average Scaled Scores
(Range 0-500)
Racial/Ethnic Differences in Texas 4th Graders'
Scores on NAEP Math Tests
250
230
210
190
170
150
1992n
1996
White
2000
Hispanic
2003
Black
Average Scaled Scores
(Range 0-500)
Texas 4th Graders' Scores on NAEP Math Tests:
Closing the Gap Between White and Hispanic
Students
260
250
240
230
220
18.6
21.9
17.6
Difference
24.1
210
200
White
190
180
Hispanic
1992n
1996
2000
2003
Average Scaled Scores
(Range 0-500)
Texas 4th Graders' Scores on NAEP Math Tests:
Closing the Gap Between White and Black Students
250
230
210
30.7
21.6
21.6
2000
2003
28.6
190
170
150
1992n
1996
White
Black
Difference
Average Scaled Scores
(Range 0-500)
Texas 4th Graders' Scores on NAEP Math Tests:
Closing the Gap Between Students Eligible and
Not Eligible for Free Lunch
250
240
22.8
230
220
25.3
Difference
26.3
Not Eligible
210
Eligible
200
190
180
1996
2000
2003
Academic Success In Texas
National Assessment of
Educational Progress (NAEP)
Reading
NAEP Reading Test Achievement Levels
4
6
6
6
6
1
2
2
19
20
23
22
21
26
28
24
Advanced
33
32
31
34
33
47
43
45
Proficient
Basic
Grade 4
1998
26
27
29
2003
41
2002
38
2003
41
1998
42
1994n
43
2002
Below Basic
1992n
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Grade 8
Percent
Texas Students Performing Below the Basic Level
on the NAEP Reading Tests
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
43
42
1992n 1994n
41
1998
38
2002
Grade 4
41
2003
26
27
29
1998
2002
2003
Grade 8
Texas Students Performing At or Above
Proficient Level on the NAEP Reading Tests
35
30
29
Percent
25
20
26
30
28
27
27
2002
2003
1998
26
23
15
10
5
0
1992n 1994n 1998
Grade 4
2002
Grade 8
2003
Racial/Ethnic Differences in Texas 4th Graders' Scores
on NAEP Reading Tests
Average Scaled Scores
(Range 0-500)
230
220
210
200
190
180
1992
1994
1998
White
2000
Black
2002
Hispanic
2003
Texas 4th Graders' Scores on NAEP Reading
Tests: Closing the Gap Between White and Black
Students
Average Scaled Scores
(Range 0-500)
240
230
220
29.3
210
200
31.7
38.1
31.5
34.1
1992
1994
1998
2000
29.8
Difference
White
Black
190
180
170
160
150
2002
2003
Texas 4th Graders' Scores on NAEP Reading: Closing the
Gap Between Hispanic and White Students
Average Scaled Scores
(Range 0-500)
240
220
200
28.3
36.1
31.4
34.7
27.6
27.7
Difference
180
White
160
Hispanic
140
120
100
1992
1994
1998
2000
2002
2003
Texas 4th Graders' Scores on NAEP Reading
Tests: Closing the Gap Between Students
Eligible and Not Eligible for Free Lunch
Average Scaled Scores
(Range 0-500)
240
230
220
30.4
33.6
26.8
27.9
210
Difference
Eligible
Not Eligible
200
190
180
1998
2000
2002
2003
College Admissions Testing
The Latest Debate
SAT Mean Combined Scores Over Time
SAT Mean Combined Score*
1100
1050
Asian/Pacific
Islander
White
1000
All Examinees
950
Hispanic
900
African American
850
800
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
*SAT Combined Score Range 400-1600
Source: Texas Education Agency & College Board
Raw Change in Mean SAT Combined
Scores
Change from 1992-2003 in SAT Mean Combined Scores
35
31
29
30
25
20
15
10
5
13
6
0
-8
-5
-10
African
American
Asian/Pacific
Islander
Source: Texas Education Agency & College Board
Hispanic
White
All
Examinees
998
70.0%
996
60.0%
994
50.0%
992
40.0%
990
30.0%
988
20.0%
986
10.0%
984
0.0%
19931994199519961997199819992000200120022003
Mean SAT Score for All TX Examinees
Examinees Who are White
Percentage of Examinees
that are White
Mean SAT Composite
Score
Mean SAT Combined Scores for All Texas Examinees &
Percent of Examinees Who Are White
Dropout Rates
Dropped Out or Pushed Out?
Percent
Dropout Rates
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
IDRA Attrition
(Grades 9-12)
Census Bureau
(Ages 16-19)
TEA Longitudinal
(Grades 9-12)
TEA Annual Rate
(Grades 7-12)
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Change in Dropout Rate over Time
IDRA Attrition
(1996-2003)
Census Bureau TEA Longitudinal TEA Annual Rate
(2000-2003)
(1996-2003)
(1996-2003)
0%
-0.9%
Percent Change
-1%
-2%
-3%
-4%
-4%
-5.0%
-5%
-6%
-7%
-8%
-7.6%
IDRA Attrition Rates
60%
Hispanic
Black
40%
Texas
30%
White
20%
Asian/Pacific
Islander
10%
Source: Intercultural Development Research Association
-0
4
20
03
-0
3
20
02
-0
2
20
01
-0
1
20
00
-0
0
19
99
-9
9
19
98
-9
8
19
97
-9
7
19
96
-9
6
19
95
-9
5
0%
19
94
Percent
50%
Percent Change in IDRA Attrition Rates
from 1994-1995 to 2003-2004
Hispanic
Black
White
Asian/Pacific
Islander
Texas
0%
Percent Change
-1%
-2%
-3%
-2%
-2%
-4%
-4%
-5%
-6%
-7%
-6%
-8%
-9%
Source: Intercultural Development Research Association
-8%
4.5%
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
Hispanic
Black
Econ. Dis.
Other
White
Source: Texas Education Agency
-0
3
20
02
-0
2
20
01
-0
1
20
00
-0
0
19
99
-9
9
19
98
-9
8
19
97
-9
7
19
96
-9
6
95
19
19
94
-9
5
Texas
-9
4
93
19
Percent of Students Who Dropped Out
TEA Annual Dropout Rates for Grades 7-12
Percent Change in Annual Dropout Rate from 1993-94 to 2002-2003
(Grades 7-12)
Hispanic
Black
Econ. Dis.
Other
White
Texas
0.0%
-0.5%
-1.0%
-1.3%
-1.5%
-1.7%
-2.0%
-2.0%
-2.5%
-2.5%
-3.0%
Source: Texas Education Agency
-1.1%
-1.7%
16-19 Year-old Dropouts
15%
14%
Texas
13%
Percent
12%
FL
11%
U.S.
10%
CA
9%
IL
8%
NY
7%
6%
2000
2001
2002
2003
Source: Annie E. Casey Foundation, 2005 Kids Count Data Book analysis of data from U.S. Census Bureau
Change in Dropout Rate from 2000-2003
for 16-19 year-olds
United
States
California
Florida
Illinois
New York
Texas
0%
Percent Change
-5%
-10%
-11%
-15%
-20%
-25%
-30%
-35%
-40%
-22%
-27%
-30%
-33%
Source: Annie E. Casey Foundation, 2005 Kids Count Data Book analysis of data from U.S. Census Bureau
-36%
Comparisons to Our Competitors
Texas Does Better
Percent of children under 18 in poverty 2003
25.0%
20.0%
22.8%
19.0%
19.4%
19.0%
Percent
15.8%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
California
Florida
Illinois
New York
Texas
Source: Annie E. Casey Foundation, 2005 Kids Count Data Book analysis of data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s
American Community Survey
Children Whose Parents are not High School Graduates
30%
26%
26%
Percent
25%
20%
17%
17%
15%
16%
Illinois
New York
15%
10%
5%
0%
National
California
Florida
Source: Annie E. Casey Foundation, 2005 Kids Count Data Book analysis of data from U.S. Census Bureau
Texas
Students Receiving English Language Learner (ELL) Services
in 2001-2002
30.0%
24.6%
Percent
25.0%
20.0%
14.5%
15.0%
10.0%
7.9%
8.2%
6.7%
4.0%
5.0%
0.0%
National California
Source: National Center for Education Statistics
Florida
Illinois
New York
Texas
NCES 2002-2003 Per Pupil Expenditures
$11,961
$12,000
$10,000
$8,041
$8,000
$8,287
$7,552
$7,136
$6,439
$6,000
$4,000
$2,000
$0
National
California
Source: National Center for Education Statistics
Florida
Illinois
New York
Texas
One Star
One Future
One Texas