Transcript Remarketing in cijfers uitgedrukt

Used Car Remarketing in Europe
What drives the sector & how this affects
your business
Bucharest, 15 November 2012
Rob Henneveld
Global Automotive Consultancy
© 2012 Global Automotive Consultancy
Content
1. Upstream: developments at the car manufacture
2. Market position of used cars
3. Affect on leasing- and bank sector
Disclaimer
This presentation is prepared with the greatest care when it comes to completion, accuracy and the interpretation from the multiple sources. However no
rights can be claimed from any errors. This presentation is only for the visitors of ALB’s 8th annual conference and its members. It is strictly prohibited to
copy and distribute by any carrier and/or other means, the content, partly or whole, of this presentation without prior permission. Rob Henneveld 10
November 2012
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© 2012 Global Automotive Consultancy
• Upstream: developments at the car manufacture
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Platform strategy car manufacture
© 2012 Global Automotive Consultancy
Platform definition: (lego blocks….)
• R&D among competitive OEM groups
• Sharing components among brands
• Same production line, different brands
• Overproduction, 10-20%
• Overcapacity, 20-30%
=
+
Global platform standardization main 12x OEM’s:
• 223 platforms in 2010 to 154 in 2020 (-/- 30%)
• In 2020: 74% of total production with
• 95% production from only 36 platforms
• Production from 80 million (2012) to 125 million in 2020
OEM: Original Equipment Manufacture
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Result:
• The “Universal Car”
• Re-badging
Marketing makes the difference!
4
Technology as a (sales) driver
Manufacture in a continuous race………
share of
complexity
4-6 year
2 year
Today's
Market penetration
30%
© 2012 Global Automotive Consultancy
Present &
Future
Innovation Cycle
· Parking control
· Tire pressure control
· Load & weight
· Oil service check
· Key-less access
· Engine control unit
· Anti theft system
· Impact sensors
· Traction control
· Seat memory
· Power windows
15%
· Lighting
· Radio’s
· L & R indicator
· Claxons
· Dynamo
· Starter
· Rear light timers
· Electronic ignition
· Wiper interval
· Generator
Digital era (I)
· Radars
· Electronic trackingsysteem
· Remote information
· Intelligent cruise control
· Voice activation
· Sound reducing system
· Higher board voltage
· Trip computer
· Defect lightbulb indicator
· Service indicator
· ABS & EPS
· Restrain systems
· Cruise control
· Light signaling
Digital era (II)
· Electronic powertrains
· Battery repair
· Telematics
· Steering & braking “by wire”
· Electronic camshaft
· Onboard Internet
· 200+ different sensors
· Selfparking
· Start-Stop system
Digital era (III)
· Intro Start-Stop system
· Regen. braking energy
· Downsizing combustion
engine
· Upsizing electric motor
· E-, S-call
Digital era (IV)
· Full electr. powertrains
· Battery exchange pack
· Battery charge
infrastructure
· Sealed engine
· Hoger voltage system
· "Disposable" car
·?
0%
1980
From traditional maintenance
1990
2000
2010
2020
Towards "Zero" Maintenance
! "#$%#"&'( ) *'"+ , -( . ( / 01"2( 34, '-*356
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Future Residuals =>Technology driven!
Production planning 2010-2017
100%
14%
Mild
hybrids,
5%
80%
© 2012 Global Automotive Consultancy
60%
45%
Micro
hybrids,
89%
72%
40%
20%
41%
5%
10%
HEV’s:
• Regenerating brake energy
• Start-Stop systems
13%
0%
Europe 2010
Conventional Diesel
Full
hybrids,
6%
Europe 2017
Conventional Benzine
EV
HEV
Making conventional used cars obsolete!
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’50’s => 10-12 years
’90’s => 6-7 years
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Decline
Maturity
Growth
Automotive industry
follows the smartphone
business model
Production
Research & Design
Revenue/Volumes
© 2012 Global Automotive Consultancy
Product life cycle development
2012: 2-4 years max.
Time
7
© 2012 Global Automotive Consultancy
2. Market position of used cars
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Used car market
Owners
•
•
•
•
New
New from factory
Company cars
Buy Backs
Pre-registrations
1st
Distribution New
© 2012 Global Automotive Consultancy
Almost
new
2nd
3rd
Retail general
4th
Scrappage
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It is a split market
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Dynamics new-used car volumes
In general the used car market volume is stable!
•
Car manufacture is investing in Quality used car labels
•
Buy back flow from weak new car markets but strong tourist
markets is flooding other EU-countries
© 2012 Global Automotive Consultancy
15%
Year-to-Year Volume Fluctuations
4.2%
5.5%
5%
-0.2%
-1.0%
0%
2004
-5%
9.3%
8.7%
10%
In economic weaker
times, the used car
buyer orientate on
cheaper cars.
13.0%
2005
2006
2007
2.1%
2008
-0.8%
-1.4%
2009
2010
4.5%
2011
-3.1%
-5.1%
-10%
-12.6%
-15%
Secondhand
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New cars
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Needed: professional occasion management
Occasion price development related to age till June 2012
105%
100%
95%
© 2012 Global Automotive Consultancy
90%
85%
80%
Dec Jan Feb Ma Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Ma Apr May June
'10 '11 '11 '11 '11 '11 '11 '11 '11 '11 '11 '11 '11 '12 '12 '12 '12 '12 '12
0-4 year
4-8 year
Prijsfluctuations:
• Allways down over period of time
• Somtimes a brief increase, never long
8-12 year
Threat: margin erosion!
More & More required: short purchase & sales cycle!
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Relation shift stock time & sales time (B2C)
© 2012 Global Automotive Consultancy
Ø Stock time (Days)
Ø: stock time ≠ sales time
115
From First-in-First-out to Last-in-First-out:
• Stock ages
• Demand ≠ Supply
Reasons:
• Attention staff recently trade-ins
Brand dealers
Ø stock time: 115 days
• Forgotten “dead stock”
• “lot cars” more expensive = longer
stock time
• “Fresh used car” often cheaper
68 days
68 Ø Sales time (Days)*
*For how long has the car just sold be in our company?
Source: CRM Used Carmanagement and adopted by Global Automotive Consultancy
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*Passenger cars
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© 2012 Global Automotive Consultancy
• Affect on leasing- & bank sector
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Lease contract ≠ model life cycle
Decline
Growth
Maturity
• 2 – 3 years max.!
• Average leasing period get’s longer
Production
Research & Design
Revenue/Volumes
© 2012 Global Automotive Consultancy
Optimum RV-window becomes shorter…..
2012: 2-4 years max.
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Leasing period 4-5 years
Time
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Leasing companies
© 2012 Global Automotive Consultancy
In ’80’s
Now…
Finance &
Administration
(Remarketing)
Administration
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Finan
-ce &
Control
Sales &
Purchase
Contract
Man.
Sales
Service
&
Operations
Operations
Procu
reme
nt
Rema
rketing
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Who knows/decides on Residuals & Risk?
Decision stakeholders
Collective risk assessment
General
Manager
© 2012 Global Automotive Consultancy
Remarketing
Manager
Remarketing
Employee
Residual Value
Committee
Financial
Controler
External
(cartrader)
Sales
Manager
© 2012 Global Automotive Consultancy
The “thirst for new leasing contracts” easily leads to gambling!
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Post- & pre-crisis
PreRemarketing
Logistics
Inspection &
Photographs
Fixed price
Pricing
strategy
© 2012 Global Automotive Consultancy
Lessons from ‘08/'09 crisis:
• Buyers stop
• Single channel & - outlet
• Limited competence / skillset
Tender
method
Sales
Preperation
& Channel
Physical
sales
Online sales
Whole
sales
© 2012 Global Automotive Consultancy
Or we shift……
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Post- & pre-crisis
PreRemarketing
Logistics
Inspection &
Photographs
Fixed price
Pricing
strategy
© 2012 Global Automotive Consultancy
Lessons from ‘08/'09 crisis:
• Buyers stop
• Single channel & - outlet
• Limited competence / skillset
Present:
• Is multi-channel the answer?
• Positioning remarketing?
• ROI?
Tender
method
Sales
Preperation
& Channel
Physical
sales
Online sales
Whole
sales
Retail
Consumer
© 2012 Global Automotive Consultancy
Or ……
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Shifting Lease into Uses Car proposition?
In ’80’s
Finance &
Administratie
(Remarketing)
Service
&
Operations
Sales &
Purchase
Highest Risk!!
© 2012 Global Automotive Consultancy
Now…
Sales
Administrati
on
Contract
Man.
Financ
e&
Control
Core business?!
Remarketing
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Sales
Operations
Procurement
Remarketing
Future: ?
Service, Procurement
& Operations
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© 2012 Global Automotive Consultancy
Rob M. Henneveld
Global Automotive Consultancy
+31 6 54 921 409
www.globaucon.com
[email protected]
Twitter.com/#!/RobHenneveld
www.linkedin.com/in/robmhenneveld1
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