Transcript No Slide Title

Desal Conference
Co-Sponsored By
The Aquarium of the Pacific
And
Desal Response Group
October 5, 2006
J. R. Schubel
Topics I Will Touch On
• The present portfolio of freshwater sources for
S. California
• Freshwater “needs” in 2030
• Possible goals for the portfolio
• Achieving a mix of sources to achieve portfolio
goals in 2030
• The most important and uncertain elements in
determining the role of ocean desal in 2030
Metropolitan Water
District
Service Area
I Will Focus On The MWD
• Service area accounts for >92% of S. CA.
Population
• Supplies > 90% of total URBAN water; 7%
of total AG water; and 47% of TOTAL
water used in S. California.
Southern California’s Water Portfolio
Yesterday & Today
S&T Cons.
CRA
Local
SWP
Storage
& Trans.
Cons.
CRA
Local
SWP
Early 1990’s
Heavy dependence on
Imported supply
In a drought
Source: Metropolitan Water District
Today
Less than half of the region’s
Water is imported
in dry years
Total Retail M&I Demand with Conserv ation
5,000,000
4,500,000
4,000,000
3,500,000
(acre-feet)
3,000,000
Los Angeles
Orange
Riv erside
San Bernardino
San Diego
Ventura
Total
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
2005
2010
2015
2020
Year
2025
2030
Population Growth
25,000,000
20,000,000
Los Angeles
Orange
Riv erside
San Bernardino
San Diego
Ventura
Total
# of People
15,000,000
10,000,000
5,000,000
0
2005
2010
2015
2020
Year
2025
2030
Per Capita Urban Water Use (GPD) In MWD
County
2005 2010
2015
2020 2025 2030
Los Angeles
168
173
170
172
172
170
Orange
190
191
190
190
191
191
Riverside
250
262
260
263
267
269
San Bernardino
253
262
264
264
266
269
San Diego
175
176
175
174
174
174
Ventura
215
226
228
232
235
237
*Long Beach 140
N. California
Local Sources
Colorado R
Reclamation
Ocean DeSal
Southern California’s Water Portfolio
Yesterday, Today, Tomorrow
S&T Cons.
CRA
Local
SWP
Storage Cons.
& Trans.
CRA
Local
Storage Cons.
& Trans.
CRA
SWP
Local
Early 1990’s
Heavy dependence on
Imported supply
In a drought
Source: Metropolitan Water District
SWP
Today
Less than half of the region’s
Water is imported
in dry years
Tomorrow 2030
Maintaining the balance
for future droughts
Energy Requirements of Moving
Water Around vs. Ocean Desalination
(kWh/Acre Foot)
Moving Around
SWP
• 4100-4500
w/o generation
• 2600-3200
w/generation
CRA
• 2,000
Ocean DeSal
• 3260 - 4900*
• *Ocean Waters =
4,000 and up.
Sea of Cortez
Looking South From California
Environmental Effects Of Ocean
DeSal vs. Diversion From San
Francisco Bay And Sea of Cortez
Ocean DeSal
• Entrainment &
Entrapment
• Effects of High
Salinity Discharge
Enriched in
Contaminants
• Energy-Related
Effects…Greenhouse
Gases
Diversion
• Entrainment &
Entrapment
• Loss of Estuarine
Habitat, Including
Tidal Wetlands-Both Fresh & Salt
Water
Diversion Has Serious
Consequences for the Bay
• Increase in salinity
• Compression of low salinity habitat
• Blocking of passageways of anadromous and semianadromous fishes
• Decline of pelagic organisms…loss, or endangered
status, of many native CA spp., e.g. delta smelt
• Large hypoxic/anoxic zone in Stockton Ship Channel
• HAB of Microcystis in Delta causing death of fish
and plankton
Effects of Diversions on the
Sea of Cortez
•
•
•
•
Increased salinities.
Compression of low salinity areas.
Collapse of toatoaba fishery in 1970.
Collapse of shrimp fishery in late 1980s and
early 1900s when catches fell by more than
50%.
• Exacerbated water quality problems.
• Loss of extensive wetlands and coastal jungle.
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Desal
33‰
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66‰
>35‰
Putting Environmental Effects of
Diversion & Desalination In
Perspective
SHARING WITH NATURE
A. Our Responsibilities For Other Life Forms
B. Ecosystem Services (1997)
(1) ∑ $33 trillion
(a) 64% contributed by marine systems:
(b) 50% of that coastal. Most valuable-estuaries and wetlands
(2) ∑ GDPs = $18 trillion (1997)
City of Long
Beach
Seawater Desalination,
10,000
14%
29,516
41%
32,684
45%
Groundwater: LBWD Central
Basin Aquifer Rights
Wholesale
Purchases MWDSC
Putting The Environmental Effects of
Desalination In Perspective
SHARING WITH NATURE
A. Our Responsibilities For Other Life Forms
B. Ecosystem Services (1997)
(1) ∑ $33 trillion
(a) 64% contributed by marine systems:
(b) 50% of that coastal. Most valuable-estuaries and wetlands
(2) ∑ GDPs = $18 trillion (1997)
Science in Decision-Making
Action
AoP/SoCal
Alternative
Water
Futures
Forum!
Wisdom
Knowledge
Information
Data
Objective
Subjective
Noise
Calculation
Signal
Judgment
Value to Decision-Makers
TACIT AREA
Goals Of The Conference
• To Take A Fresh New, Unfettered Look
At OCEAN DeSal.
• To Provide You With The Information
Needed To Put OCEAN DeSal Into
Context As A Potential Source of
Freshwater For S. California in 2030.
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Desal
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33‰
66‰
>35‰
"Why is it that stupid things seem
so smart when we are doing
them." - Dennis the Menace
Some Guiding Principles
• Conserve as much as possible.
• Reclaim and recycle as much as possible.
• In filling the gap: Include nature in the
allocation process. Indeed, start with nature.
• Identify and assess the impacts of exploiting
alternative sources.
– Sources
• Surface waters
• Ground waters
• Ocean waters /Reclaimed waters through
desalination
Some Guiding Principles
• Impacts Associated with Exploiting
Different Sources
– Environmental
– Economic
– Other Social Impacts
The Bay
Watershed:
Water
for all of
California
Diversion Has Serious
Consequences for the Bay
• Increase in salinity
• Compression of low salinity habitat
• Blocking of passageways of anadromous and
semi-anadromous fishes
Map of Colorado Delta, from journal of Godfrey Sykes in first comprehensive survey.
The Hydrosphere
Water Source
Oceans
Icecaps, Glaciers
Groundwater
Freshwater Lakes
Inland Seas
Soil Moisture
Atmosphere
Rivers
Total Water Volume
Vol. in cubic Km
1,350,000,000
29,000,000
9,500,000
125,000
104,000
67,000
13,000
1,300
1,388,810
% of Total Water
97.24
2.14
0.61
0.009
0.008
0.005
0.001
0.0001
100%
• Proposed volume of fresh water to
be created from desalination of S.
California ocean waters is about
1/17th the amount of fresh water now
diverted from Colorado River Delta.
•260,000 Acre Feet/yr Vs. 4.4 Million
Acre Feet/yr
Effects of Diversions on the
Sea of Cortez
•
•
•
•
Increased salinities.
Compression of low salinity areas.
Collapse of toatoaba fishery in 1970.
Collapse of shrimp fishery in late 1980s and early
1900s when catches fell by more than 50%.
• Exacerbated water quality problems.
• Loss of extensive wetlands and coastal jungle.
TOTAL ANNUAL WITHDRAWLS per
capita (m3)
•
•
•
•
•
•
World
U.S.
Canada
Japan
India
China
(from WRI, 1996-7)
645
1,870
1,602
735
612
461
• Proposed volume of fresh water to
be created from desalination of S.
California ocean waters is less than
[email protected]; abuschmann@mac
1/60 the amount of fresh water now
diverted from the Sacramento-San
Joaquin Delta.
•260,000 Acre Feet/yr Vs. 16 Million
Acre Feet/yr
• Proposed volume of fresh water to
be created from desalination of S.
California ocean waters is about
1/17th the amount of fresh water now
diverted from Colorado River Delta.
•260,000 Acre Feet/yr Vs. 4.4 Million
Acre Feet/yr
The Diversions
• The Driving Force
– Mismatch between water use and water
availability…
• Not unique to California
• On average about 16 million acre-feet of fresh
water are diverted/year from the San Francisco
Bay Delta.
• This amounts to as much as 50% - 60% of total
flow in some months.
N. California
Tab 2
Tab 3
Reclamation
Ocean Desal
Putting The Environmental Effects of
Desalination In Perspective
SHARING WITH NATURE
A. Our Responsibilities For Other Life Forms
B. Ecosystem Services (1997)
(1) ∑ $33 trillion
(a) 64% contributed by marine systems:
(b) 50% of that coastal. Most valuable-estuaries and wetlands
(2) ∑ GDPs = $18 trillion (1997)
Where Southern California
gets its Water
Storage & Transfers
Water Banking / Exchanges
Local Supplies
LA Aqueduct
State
Water Project
Supplies
Local Supplies
Groundwater, Recycling,
Desalination
Colorado River
Aqueduct
Supplies
Conservation
Source: Metropolitan Water District
Science in Decision-Making
AoP/SoCal
Alternative
Water
Futures
Forum!
Energy Requirements of Moving
Water Around vs. Ocean
Desalination (kWh/Acre Foot)
Moving Around
SWP
CRA
4100-4500 2000
(Without Co-generation)
Ocean DeSal
3260 - 4900*
*Ocean Waters =
4,000 and up.