Transcript DEVELOPING REALISTIC DIRTY BOMB EXERCISES

DEVELOPING REALISTIC DIRTY
BOMB EXERCISES
• Dirty bombs were a problem long before 9-11.
• 1987, the Iraqi government tested a one-ton
radiological bomb. The Iraqi tests confirmed that
a dirty bomb is not effective as a WMD and that
its main value is as a psychological weapon
• In 1995 Chechen rebels buried a dirty bomb in a
Park in Moscow threatening to detonate one in
the future if their demands were not met.
DEVELOPING REALISTIC DIRTY BOMB EXERCISES
Scenarios have two important end uses.
•Development of drill and exercise data to be used
in field training and tabletop exercises.
•Risk communications.
Unrealistic scenarios will result and in poor training
and poor performance.
DEVELOPING REALISTIC DIRTY BOMB EXERCISES
NOT THE DESIRED RESULT
“A few minutes into the simulated exercise, a
leader of the drill pleaded for some action,
warning that radiation was killing people and
hospitals were being overwhelmed. This
bothered me, because it is well documented by
all our official agencies that the radioactivity in
dirty bombs is unlikely to seriously hurt anyone.
People not injured by the conventional explosion
itself could walk away and be out of danger.”
DEVELOPING REALISTIC DIRTY BOMB EXERCISES
If you train people to panic they will panic.
Emergency responders were panicking due to a
lack of information regarding the actual hazards
of the radioactive material released.
This diverted them from tasks that were more
important and caused unnecessary protective
measures to be put in place.
This drill demonstrated that the participating
response organizations had not prepared for this
hazard.
DEVELOPING REALISTIC DIRTY BOMB EXERCISES
Scenarios reviewed in 2003 revealed a
number where the event resulted in lethal
levels of radiation exposure over very large
areas.
Some used spent fuel as a source term.
Over blown scenarios may instill a tendency
to overreact or fear in the responders.
DEVELOPING REALISTIC DIRTY BOMB EXERCISES
The calculation of doses from the release of
radioactive material depends on pre-knowledge of
the source term or extensive sampling.
As the source term will be unknown the only data
readily available to first responders will be
contamination levels in terms of activity.
DEVELOPING REALISTIC DIRTY BOMB EXERCISES
The purpose of dirty bomb is disperse radioactivity
and not to destroy or damage the target.
It can be used in a stand off mode. A dirty bomb
detonated upwind of the selected target area can be
as effective as one placed in the immediate vicinity.
The objective of any dirty bomb is inflict panic on a
public and economic damage by disruption of
business in the target and inflict enormous clean up
costs by spreading radioactive contamination.
DEVELOPING REALISTIC DIRTY BOMB EXERCISES
The September 18, 1987 incident in Goiania Brazil
where an orphaned medical source containing 1400
Ci of Cs-137 resulted the death of four people and
extensive contamination is often used as an
example of potential dirty bomb effects.
As the case involved manual dispersal and the
individuals contaminated were not aware of the
problem for days this case may be misleading.
DEVELOPING REALISTIC DIRTY BOMB EXERCISES
Scenarios should address the more likely range of
sources and explosives rather than the improbable.
The most likely sources to be used for a dirty bomb
are those that are easily stolen such as density
gauges, well logging sources, radiography sources
and medical sources.
These have relatively low levels of security when
compared to special nuclear material.
DEVELOPING REALISTIC DIRTY BOMB EXERCISES
Source
Amount
1. NWA Tool
2 Ci Cs-137 & 4 Ci Am-241/Be
2. Sealed Source
3 Ci Am-241/Be
3. Industrial Source
172 mCi Cs-137
4. Troxler Density Gauge
8 mCi Cs-137 & 40 mCi Am-241/Be
5. Troxler Density 5 Gauge
40 mCi Cs-137 & 200 mCi Am-241/Be
6. Troxler Density 10 Gauge
80 mCi Cs-137 & 400 mCi Am-241/Be
7. Stolen Material Never Recovered (Hospital in NC) Brachytherapy Sources
8. Radiation Device Accident in Brazil
Cancer Therapy Machine 1400 Ci Cs-137
9. Teletherapy Sources
2000 Ci Co-60
10. Industrial Radiography Sources
2 Ci Co-60
11. Industrial Radiography Sources Metal Pellet
100 Ci Ir-192
12. IAEA Article Industrial Radiography Source
Metal Pellets
100 Ci Co-60
13. Soviet Orphaned Sources – RTG
40,000 Ci Sr-90
14. Soviet Orphaned Sources –Park Chechen
Device in Moscow
50 millicuries Cs-137
15. Soviet Orphaned Sources – Gamma Kolos
Device
2100 Ci Cs-137
DEVELOPING REALISTIC DIRTY BOMB EXERCISES
Sources are normally encapsulated but these can
be opened and the material removed.
Cs-137 is often found in an ideal form for dispersal
But any form such as a solid metal can be reduced
to a powder by easily obtained mechanical or
chemical methods.
It should be assumed that maker of a dirty bomb
has converted the material to an easily dispersed
powder.
DEVELOPING REALISTIC DIRTY BOMB EXERCISES
The Hotspot code was selected as it is designed
for emergency responders.
Hotspot has a model for the dispersal of
radioactive material due to an explosion.
Hotspot can can contamination levels in units
that emergency responders are familiar with.
Hotspot provides a plot of the area contaminated
and calculates the square area.
DEVELOPING REALISTIC DIRTY BOMB EXERCISES
Initial surveys are likely to be conducted using a
count rate meter with a pancake probe.
This style of instrument without a specialized probe
can normally detect levels in 1000 dpm/100 cm2
level of beta-gamma radiation (approximately 100
counts above background).
Contamination levels down to 100 dpm / 100 cm2
can be detected can be detected using the smear
technique.
DEVELOPING REALISTIC DIRTY BOMB EXERCISES
The Hotspot code was set to determine areas
contaminated to 1000 dpm/100 cm2 and 100
dpm/100 cm2 by a dirty bomb using a relative
low level of explosive.
Cases were run for calm nighttime conditions
(F Stability) and more average daytime condition
(D Stability).
DEVELOPING REALISTIC DIRTY BOMB EXERCISES
Event
Amount
1.
NWA Tool
2 Ci Cs-137 & 4 Ci Am-241/Be
2.
Sealed Source
3 Ci Am-241/Be
3.
Troxler Density 5 Gauge 40 mCi Cs-137 & 200 mCi Am241/Be
Troxler Density 10
80 mCi Cs-137 & 400 mCi AmGauge
241/Be
Stolen Material Never
Brachytherapy Sources
Recovered
640 millicuries Cs-137
Radiation Device
Cancer Therapy Machine 1400
Accident in Brazil
Ci Cs-137
Teletherapy Sources
2000 Ci Co-60
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
Industrial Radiography 100 Ci Ir-192
Sources Metal Pellet
9. Soviet Orphaned
40,000 Ci Sr-90
Sources – RTG
10. Soviet Orphaned
2100 Ci Cs-137
Sources – Gamma Kolos
Device
A. Concentration never reaches 100 dpm/ 100
Stability
Class
F
D
F
D
F
D
F
D
F
D
F
D
F
D
F
D
F
D
F
D
50 lbs. HE
(km 2)
1.90E+00
3.80E-01
5.80E-01
1.30E-01
3.00E-03
A
1.80E-02
7.00E-04
2.90E-02
3.00E-03
B
B
B
B
5.84E+02
9.70E+01
B
B
B
B
100 lbs. HE
(km 2)
1.40E+00
3.20E-01
4.20E-01
9.70E-02
A
A
1.00E-02
A
1.80E-02
A
B
B
B
B
5.03E+02
8.80E+01
B
B
B
B
cm2.
2
B. Downwind dispersal is greater than 200 km and total area contaminated to 100 dpm/100 cm was not
calculated by Hotspot.
DEVELOPING REALISTIC DIRTY BOMB EXERCISES
DEVELOPING REALISTIC DIRTY BOMB EXERCISES
Significant Results From Test Cases
A small device, while producing low levels of
dose, may contaminate a very large area and
make the establishment of contamination control
on par with that for a reactor accident.
Effective dirty bombs can be quite small in size
and could be made that would fit in a trash can or
other ordinary looking container.
DEVELOPING REALISTIC DIRTY BOMB EXERCISES
The goal of emergency response training is to
prepare the responders to effectively mitigate
the consequences of the hazardous material
released. Scenarios that do not realistically
present the major consequence of a dirty
bomb attack to the responders being trained
fails to meet that goal.
DEVELOPING REALISTIC DIRTY BOMB EXERCISES
To provide effective training and risk
communications Dirty Bomb scenarios must be
based on the more probable source terms, not
extremely unlikely cases.
Scenarios that produce high levels of dose using
extreme source terms can result in negative
training as responders may hesitate to enter the
immediate due to concerns over acute health
effects.
DEVELOPING REALISTIC DIRTY BOMB EXERCISES
Industrial and medical radioactive material sources
that have relatively low levels of security are more
likely to be used in a dirty bomb than special
nuclear material.
DEVELOPING REALISTIC DIRTY BOMB EXERCISES
A dirty bomb does not need to use large amounts
of explosives or radioactive material to be effective.
Devices can be placed inside of trashcans or 55gallon drums.
The use of car bombs or truck bombs as the
exclusive basis for a dirty bomb can lead to
mindset in responders that can result in
overlooking the potential for smaller devices.
DEVELOPING REALISTIC DIRTY BOMB EXERCISES
The real consequence of any dirty bomb attack is
the contamination of large areas at levels that
require the evacuation of residents or frightens
them in leaving by choice.
In order to train responders they need data that
relates to their equipment and provides them the
means to address contamination control.
The impact of a dirty bomb attack will be increased
if contamination is allowed to spread by lack of
contamination control.
DEVELOPING REALISTIC DIRTY BOMB EXERCISES
As the possible range of devices is so large there is
no standard dirty bomb to train to. Training needs to
addresses that there is a wide range of possible
devices and outcomes. Response Organizations
may want to use small devices for initial training but
higher end for planning. Responders should be
brought through a range of devices using a
combination of tabletops, field exercises, and
classroom instruction.
DEVELOPING REALISTIC DIRTY BOMB EXERCISES