Transcript Document
Challenges . . .
Managing Labour Deficit / Surplus
Pace of Construction Investment
Retirement Rates
Worker Availability
Performance of Other Sectors
Regional Realities
National Standards
Government Policies
World Events
Productivity
etc . . . . .
Challenges . . .
Source: Registered Apprenticeship Information System
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According to the Canadian Apprenticeship Forum less than 20% of employers
provide apprenticeship training
Challenges . . .
Construction educators and trainers include:
Industry (80% of apprenticeship on-the-job)
Joint Training Trust Funds
Community Colleges and Universities
Construction Associations (Local or Regional)
Trade Contractor Associations
Provincial Construction Safety Associations
Labour Groups
Private Trainers
Owners (User of Construction Services)
Suppliers
In most cases, they work in isolation
Why LMI is Important . . .
Anticipate the demand for Construction Services
Where are the “hot spots”
Getting better demand information
Translating demand into worker requirements
Paint a “Realistic” Picture of Labour Supply
Demographics by trade and by province / region
Define the supply of labour by province / region
Understand the movement of labour
Target Supply Side Solutions
Replenishes supply of labour in an effective manner
Youth, Aboriginals, Women, Immigrant Workers
Why LMI is Important . . .
Early warning system
Labour supply demand forecasting tool
Proactive vs reactive
Time to implement short, medium, long term solutions
Decision making tool
Alternative scenarios, impact analysis
Venue for industry discussion
Create common understanding of labour market
Collaborative solutions
Issues cannot be resolved by one group
Takes effort of all stakeholders
Why LMI is Important . . .
With local / regional participation, established LMI
Program to provide industry with better
information on the demand for and supply of
skilled labour:
LMI is the cornerstone of the CSC’s activity:
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Identify training requirements
Anticipate and plan for tight labour markets
Increase apprenticeship enrollments and completions
Facilitate worker mobility
Identify sources of labour across the country
Influence labour market policy
Drives work of CSC
CSC LMI Program
Currently, the Construction Sector
Council produces an annual
construction labour requirements
forecast:
9 year time horizon
32 trades / occupations
For each province:
Economic and investment outlook
Construction activity
Construction Employment requirements
Rank labour availability
CSC LMI Program
Example of requests for LMI data:
Syncrude, Shell, Suncor, CNRL
Carpenters Training Centre in New Brunswick
Alberta Government
Citizenship and Immigration
Algonquin College
2010 Winter Olympics, B.C. Whistler
Manitoba Hydro
B.C. Hydro
“Looking for workers in our backyard is not good enough anymore”
“Workforce availability is the biggest risk factor in undertaking major projects”
LMI Forecasting
Components of the program:
32 trades and occupations
15 regions in Canada (10 provinces and 5 Ontario regions)
Employment, labour force, excess supply
Construction and other industries
Statistics Canada Census data (LFS monitoring)
Labour Supply
Labour Demand, including
Expansion demand
Replacement demand
LMI Forecasting
Key Elements of the Forecasting Tool:
Provincial/regional approach – matches the provincial/regional structure of
the construction labour market.
Regional Network of LMI – committees comprised of key industry and
government stakeholders tasked with bringing regional realities to the
forecast.
Mid term and long term forecast – facilitates planning and the development
of supply side solutions.
Macro economic outlook - the construction forecast is grounded in the
context of a broader economic forecast.
Construction investment outlook –derived from provincial/regional major
project information vetted by provincial/regional stakeholders (Coefficients:
Employment Per $Million Real Expenditures).
Supply side tracking – builds on the data provided through traditional data
sources bringing a greater degree of accuracy.
Labour requirement assessment – provides a quantitative and qualitative
analysis of labour requirements for 32 trades/occupations.
LMI Forecasting
Process Steps:
Collect and analyze major project information
Conduct industry consultation
Set economic scenario assumptions
Create economic scenarios
Set trades assumptions
Produce trades scenarios
Conduct demand-supply balance assessment
Disseminate results
LMI Forecasting
Regional Network of Labour Market Information Committees
Provincial, regional, local
Comprised of labour, contractors, owners, governments,
educators and trainers
Roles and responsibilities include:
reviewing / commenting on macroeconomic assumptions
establishing regional major projects lists for non-residential sectors
compiling, information on housing starts and renovation activity
reviewing and validating forecasts to ensure they reflect regional realities
assisting in defining the labour supply relationships (training,
demographics, measuring replacement demand, labour mobility)
determining whether trades need further analysis
assisting in the preparation of the final report
LMI Forecasting
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY
Demand
Supply
OTHER INDUSTRIES
Demand
Balance
Balance
Total Balance
Excess Trades
Trades Shortage
Supply
LMI Forecasting
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Mobility Across Adjacent Labour Markets
Unemployment Rate
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Region A
Region B
Region C
Region D
Market
Market with unemployment below the natural rate will
attract workers from other markets
Region E
LMI Forecasting
Labour Market Rankings
Scale of 1 (excess supply) through 5 (excess
demand) summarizes the market conditions
Regional Rankings are a weighted average of
four measures
1.
Estimated unemployment rate relative to natural
unemployment rate
2.
Employment Growth
3.
Replacement demand as a % of the Labour Force
4.
Industry Survey
The potential for mobility signals possible
changes in provincial / regional rankings
LMI Forecasting
Market Conditions Ranking by Trade
1 (excess supply) to 5 (excess demand)
LMI Forecasting
Requests for more details are a priority
for the CSC
Trade / occupational breakdowns, in some
cases, do not meet industry needs
Industry participants requested that more detail
be developed around labour supply and demand
LMI Forecasting
Workforce Forecasting Tools available to the
construction industry:
Construction Owners Association of Alberta
Best Practices Annual Workforce Supply / Demand Forecast
Commission de la Construction du Québec
Annual Construction Workforce Forecasting Model by
Region
Resource from the Construction Sector Council
Construction Looking Forward – Labour Requirements for
Canada and the Provinces 2007-2015