Transcript Document

Challenges . . .
 Managing Labour Deficit / Surplus
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Pace of Construction Investment
Retirement Rates
Worker Availability
Performance of Other Sectors
Regional Realities
National Standards
Government Policies
World Events
Productivity
etc . . . . .
Challenges . . .
Source: Registered Apprenticeship Information System
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According to the Canadian Apprenticeship Forum less than 20% of employers
provide apprenticeship training
Challenges . . .
 Construction educators and trainers include:
 Industry (80% of apprenticeship on-the-job)
 Joint Training Trust Funds
 Community Colleges and Universities
 Construction Associations (Local or Regional)
 Trade Contractor Associations
 Provincial Construction Safety Associations
 Labour Groups
 Private Trainers
 Owners (User of Construction Services)
 Suppliers
 In most cases, they work in isolation
Why LMI is Important . . .
 Anticipate the demand for Construction Services
 Where are the “hot spots”
 Getting better demand information
 Translating demand into worker requirements
 Paint a “Realistic” Picture of Labour Supply
 Demographics by trade and by province / region
 Define the supply of labour by province / region
 Understand the movement of labour
 Target Supply Side Solutions
 Replenishes supply of labour in an effective manner
 Youth, Aboriginals, Women, Immigrant Workers
Why LMI is Important . . .
 Early warning system
 Labour supply demand forecasting tool
 Proactive vs reactive
 Time to implement short, medium, long term solutions
 Decision making tool
 Alternative scenarios, impact analysis
 Venue for industry discussion
 Create common understanding of labour market
 Collaborative solutions
 Issues cannot be resolved by one group
 Takes effort of all stakeholders
Why LMI is Important . . .
 With local / regional participation, established LMI
Program to provide industry with better
information on the demand for and supply of
skilled labour:
 LMI is the cornerstone of the CSC’s activity:
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Identify training requirements
Anticipate and plan for tight labour markets
Increase apprenticeship enrollments and completions
Facilitate worker mobility
Identify sources of labour across the country
Influence labour market policy
Drives work of CSC
CSC LMI Program
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Currently, the Construction Sector
Council produces an annual
construction labour requirements
forecast:
 9 year time horizon
 32 trades / occupations
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For each province:
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Economic and investment outlook
Construction activity
Construction Employment requirements
Rank labour availability
CSC LMI Program
 Example of requests for LMI data:
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Syncrude, Shell, Suncor, CNRL
Carpenters Training Centre in New Brunswick
Alberta Government
Citizenship and Immigration
Algonquin College
2010 Winter Olympics, B.C. Whistler
Manitoba Hydro
B.C. Hydro
“Looking for workers in our backyard is not good enough anymore”
“Workforce availability is the biggest risk factor in undertaking major projects”
LMI Forecasting
Components of the program:
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32 trades and occupations
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15 regions in Canada (10 provinces and 5 Ontario regions)
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Employment, labour force, excess supply
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Construction and other industries
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Statistics Canada Census data (LFS monitoring)
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Labour Supply
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Labour Demand, including
 Expansion demand
 Replacement demand
LMI Forecasting
Key Elements of the Forecasting Tool:
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Provincial/regional approach – matches the provincial/regional structure of
the construction labour market.
Regional Network of LMI – committees comprised of key industry and
government stakeholders tasked with bringing regional realities to the
forecast.
Mid term and long term forecast – facilitates planning and the development
of supply side solutions.
Macro economic outlook - the construction forecast is grounded in the
context of a broader economic forecast.
Construction investment outlook –derived from provincial/regional major
project information vetted by provincial/regional stakeholders (Coefficients:
Employment Per $Million Real Expenditures).
Supply side tracking – builds on the data provided through traditional data
sources bringing a greater degree of accuracy.
Labour requirement assessment – provides a quantitative and qualitative
analysis of labour requirements for 32 trades/occupations.
LMI Forecasting
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Process Steps:
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Collect and analyze major project information
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Conduct industry consultation
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Set economic scenario assumptions
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Create economic scenarios
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Set trades assumptions
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Produce trades scenarios
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Conduct demand-supply balance assessment
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Disseminate results
LMI Forecasting
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Regional Network of Labour Market Information Committees
 Provincial, regional, local
 Comprised of labour, contractors, owners, governments,
educators and trainers
 Roles and responsibilities include:
 reviewing / commenting on macroeconomic assumptions
 establishing regional major projects lists for non-residential sectors
 compiling, information on housing starts and renovation activity
 reviewing and validating forecasts to ensure they reflect regional realities
 assisting in defining the labour supply relationships (training,
demographics, measuring replacement demand, labour mobility)
 determining whether trades need further analysis
 assisting in the preparation of the final report
LMI Forecasting
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY
Demand
Supply
OTHER INDUSTRIES
Demand
Balance
Balance
Total Balance
Excess Trades
Trades Shortage
Supply
LMI Forecasting
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Mobility Across Adjacent Labour Markets
Unemployment Rate
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12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Region A
Region B
Region C
Region D
Market
Market with unemployment below the natural rate will
attract workers from other markets
Region E
LMI Forecasting
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Labour Market Rankings
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Scale of 1 (excess supply) through 5 (excess
demand) summarizes the market conditions
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Regional Rankings are a weighted average of
four measures
1.
Estimated unemployment rate relative to natural
unemployment rate
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Employment Growth
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Replacement demand as a % of the Labour Force
4.
Industry Survey
The potential for mobility signals possible
changes in provincial / regional rankings
LMI Forecasting
Market Conditions Ranking by Trade
1 (excess supply) to 5 (excess demand)
LMI Forecasting
 Requests for more details are a priority
for the CSC
 Trade / occupational breakdowns, in some
cases, do not meet industry needs
 Industry participants requested that more detail
be developed around labour supply and demand
LMI Forecasting
 Workforce Forecasting Tools available to the
construction industry:
 Construction Owners Association of Alberta
 Best Practices Annual Workforce Supply / Demand Forecast
 Commission de la Construction du Québec
 Annual Construction Workforce Forecasting Model by
Region
 Resource from the Construction Sector Council
 Construction Looking Forward – Labour Requirements for
Canada and the Provinces 2007-2015