Transcript Slide 1

ESRC Seminar, Keele University, 11th November 2009
What migration statistics can and can’t
tell us: implications for labour market
analysis
Anne E. Green
Tel: 024 7652 4113
[email protected]
Institute for Employment Research
University of Warwick
•
•
•





•


•

UK: key data sources
No single data source provides comprehensive information on
geographical mobility
No population registration system – but elsewhere failure to
deregister causes problems in measuring migration
Survey and census sources
International Passenger Survey (IPS) – measures flows of people
entering and leaving the UK
Estimates of Total International Migration – estimates of immigration
and emigration
Census of Population – decennial, no information on emigrants
Labour Force Survey – weaker on short-term than long-term movers
ad hoc local surveys – no comprehensive sampling frame
Administrative sources
National Insurance numbers registered to overseas nationals
Worker Registration Scheme (covering A8 countries) – but not
everyone registers
Local surveys
How representative are they?
LGA resource guide:
Strategic importance of migration (1)
Definitional issues
 Lack of clarity leads to
confusion
 UN definition: an
‘international’ migrant is
someone who changes his or
her country of residence for at
least a year; interest in shortterm migrants also
 Country of birth: remains
consistent for each individual
 Nationality: more fluid –
individuals can change
nationality and UK nationals
can hold more than one
nationality
Legislative and policy
framework
 Sets context for legal migration
to UK
 EU freedom of movement:
cross-border mobility for EU
citizens
 Tightening of controls at
borders of EU
 Points Based System (PBS):
to manage migration from
outside the EEA – previously
work permits
 Other routes: Asylum route;
Students; Family reunion;
Illegal migration
Blurring between different types of mobility
Short-term international mobility is an increasingly
important aspect of workers’ mobility alongside
conventional ‘permanent’ relocation
High
Type of productionrelated move
Frequency of movement
Circulation
- Daily
Commuting
Long distance
(weekly) commuting
Circulation – at
least one (usually
several) overnight
stays
SHORT-TERM
ASSIGNMENTS /
MOBILITY
Permanent
Relocation
Low
Labour Migration
(intra- and interorganisational moves)
High
Duration of move
Strategic importance of migration (2)
International migration to and from the UK,
1997-2006 (source: ONS, TIM)
800,000
600,000
400,000
inward
200,000
outward
0
net inward
200,000
400,000
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
600,000
Strategic importance of migration (3)
Migrant workers and the labour market
 Recent focus of attention on A8 migrants
 Labour market impacts: positive or negative
 Consensus to date: migrant workers complement the
local labour force rather than substitute for it
 Employers and migrants as ‘gainers’ from migration
 Uneven sectoral distribution of migrant workers
 Uneven occupational distribution
 Role of changing economic conditions – downturn in inflows of A8 migrants
 Impacts on cohesion: ‘recessionary racism’
Key sources of information and
intelligence (1)
Introduction
 No single data source provides comprehensive
information on migration at national, regional and local
levels – hence need to refer to a variety of sources and
triangulate the findings
 Official data provide a consistent overview across local
areas
 Local surveys and records fill gaps in knowledge – but
inconsistencies across local areas because of use of
different methodologies
 Qualitative intelligence from local stakeholders
supplements information from other sources
Key sources (2)
Generic issues
 Establishing migrant
definitions and the
coverage of data sources
Stocks and flows
 Stocks: number of
migrants in a local area at
a particular snapshot in
time
 Flows: moves ‘in’ and
‘out’; ‘gross’ and ‘net’
 Better information on inflows than on out-flows
Residence and
workplace issues
 Are data on a residenceor a workplace- basis?
(interpret alongside
trends for neighbouring
areas)
Ongoing developments
in data sources
 Changes in policy,
legislation, migration,
recording systems
 New developments – e.g.
e-borders, UKSA report
Who is measured in counts of migrant stocks?
•
The most mobile groups are the most difficult to capture
in statistical data sources and shorter duration moves
are more difficult to capture than longer duration ones
Individuals’ contribution to a stock estimate of short-term moves
Individuals
x
y
X = start of move
Y = end of move
A
x
y
B
x
C
y
x
y
D
x
y
E
Time
T1
T2
T3
Key sources (3)
ONS statistics on international migration





IPS - International
Passenger Survey
Only source measuring
people entering and
leaving the UK
does not include all
migrants (e.g. excludes
most asylum seekers)
only a sample interviewed
based on initial intentions
no sub-regional data
Total International
Migration (TIM)
 Use of IPS to derive
estimates of long-term
immigration and emigration
nationally
 used in production of local
mid year population
estimates
 International Migration and
Population Statistics
Programme (imps) –new
methods for allocation of
international migrants
Key sources (4)
‘Official’ Census and Survey sources

Census of Population
comprehensive coverage
and disaggregation to
micro areas
decennial
captures migration in the
year before the Census
country of birth




2011: new questions on:
month/year of entry to UK
intended length of stay
citizenship
English language ability



LFS / APS
 detailed quarterly data –
including country of birth,
when came to UK,
nationality, economic
activity, employment
 difficult to cover the most
mobile elements of the
population in a survey
 has been used to
estimate the regional
labour market impact of
new migration upon
employment and wages
Median wage growth in migrant dense
occupations in the East Midlands (LFS 2001-06)
ICT Professionals
Health Professionals
Architects, Town Planners, Surveyors
Public Service Professionals
Health Associate Professionals
Metal Forming, Welding And Related Trades
Healthcare And Related Personal Services
Customer Service Occupations
Process Operatives
Assemblers And Routine Operatives
Transport Drivers And Operatives
Mobile Machine Drivers And Operatives
Elementary Process Plant Occupations
Elementary Personal Services Occupations
Elementary Cleaning Occupations
Elementary Security Occupations
-1
0
1
2
Professional
3
Other
4
5
6
7
Operative and elementary occupations
8
9
Employment growth in migrants dense
industries in the East Midlands (LFS 2001-06)
employment growth (percent per annum)
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Food, beverage manufacture
Textile manufacture
Clothing, fur manufacture
Rubber, plastic products manufacture
Other non-metallic products manufacture
Radio, TV, communication eqt. manufacture
Other transport eqt. manufacture
Wholesale trade
Hotels, restaurants
Transport by land
Auxiliary transport activities
Other business activities
Health, social Work
Activities of membership organisations
UK-born
migrant
30
40
50
60
70
WM: Migrant dense sectors & occupations:
increasing migrant density → segmentation
Migrant dense industries
 Manufacturing
 Hotels & restaurants
 Transport
 Health & social work
Employment change:
 Manufacturing – overall
employment decline
 decreasing employment for UK
nationals, increasing
employment for migrants
 Hotels & restaurants, Health &
social work - growth in
employment for UK nationals
and migrants, but faster growth
for migrants
 Vulnerability of migrant dense
sectors
and occupations
 Health professionals
 Health Associate occupations
 Healthcare, related personal service
 Assemblers, routine operatives
 Elementary cleaning occupations
 Process operatives
Employment change:
• Health and related occupations growth in employment for UK
nationals and migrants, but faster
growth for migrants
• Process, plant & machine operatives
and elementary occupations decreasing employment for UK
nationals, increasing employment for
migrants
Key sources (5)
Administrative sources (1)
General
 Provide up-to-date
information at local level
 Coverage of each source
depends on regulations
and practices associated
with it
 Do not identify when a
person leaves the UK
National Insurance
Numbers (NINos)
allocated to overseas
nationals
 NINo generally required
by an individual looking to
work or claim benefits
 Disaggregation by
gender, age and
nationality (all) to local
authority level
 Good proxy for arrivals
and economically active
NINo Registrations to Overseas Nationals
entering the UK: EAST MIDLANDS
by world area of origin
45
thousands
40
Unknown
35
Australasia & Oceania
30
Americas
25
Asia & Middle East
20
Africa
15
Other European
10
EU Accession
EU15
5
0
2002
2007
Key sources (6)
Administrative sources (2)





Worker Registration
Scheme (WRS)
Covers A8 migrants
Self-employed are not
required to register
Disaggregation by
nationality, age, gender,
wage rate, ‘sector’ and
‘occupation’ (non
standard), planned
duration of stay,
dependants
No requirement for
workers to deregister
Largely workplace based
Work Permits and the PBS
 Permits specific to a
particular individual in a
particular job
 Employer applies for
permit
 Work permit data
disaggregated by gender,
age, nationality, ‘sector’
and ‘occupation’ (non
standard)
 Workplace based
 PBS – 5 tiers (no data as
yet)
WRS, 2004-2006
Work permits, 2005
Key sources (7)
Registration and use of local services (1)
Introduction
 Measurements of
‘migration’ using such
sources vary according
to:
 Remit of the service
provided
 Propensity of migrants to
make use of that service





Registering with a GP
Patient Data Registration
System (PRDS)
New registrations are
given a flag 4 status if the
previous address is
outside the UK; this is
‘lost’ with subsequent
registrations
Age and gender recorded
Includes children
Whether and when
migrants register
Key sources (8)
Pupil Census data
 Count of pupils in
maintained schools in
England
 Unique Pupil Number
(UPN) – details of age,
gender, ethnicity, first
language, full postcode
 Provides indication of
settlement patterns of
migrants with children
(using a proxy of first
language other than
English)
Local surveys
 Supplement official
statistics and
administrative sources
 Can provide information
and intelligence on
migrants’
 motivations, intentions,
aspirations
 experience of living and
working in UK
 use and need for services
Key sources (10)
Issues in undertaking local surveys












No comprehensive sampling frame
How to recruit the sample – various methods
may not be representative of the population
subject to (unknown) sampling error
patterns and tendencies shown may vary over time
Survey methodology – different biases:
face-to-face interviews
Web surveys
self-completion questionnaires
Focus groups
Diaries and blogs
Longitudinal approaches
Key sources (11)
Other sources of local intelligence
 Local authorities
 Trade Unions
 Employment agencies and
other labour market
intermediaries
 Employers and Chambers of
Commerce
 Libraries
 Migrants’ food shops
 Citizens Advice Bureaux
 Churches and other faithbased organisations
 Private landlords, housing
associations, estate agents
 Churches and other faithbased organisations
 Private landlords, housing
associations, estate agents
 Community groups and
organisations serving new
arrivals and more established
migrants
 Police, community wardens
 Fire Service
 Colleges
 Schools
 Hospitals, health centres
 Transport providers
Using migration data (1)
Generic issues:
 how the data were
collected (data collection
methodology)
 why the data were
collected (rationale for
data collection)
 how information is
recorded
Key questions:
 who is covered / not
covered by the data set?
 when does the
information relate to?
 where are individuals
recorded?
 what is the context for
data collection (e.g. legal
requirement,
administrative process,
voluntary registration)
Using migration data (2)
Bringing data together
Example of Herefordshire
 ‘official’ survey and administrative sources
 SAWS data
 Agricultural Census
 annual surveys of farmers
 Housing section of local authority,
Homelessness Team
What ‘official’ and administrative
sources can tell us




Economic position
Sector
Occupation
Calculations of migrant
density
 Labour market
segmentation
 Earnings
 GVA contribution
 Migrants’ position vis-àvis non-migrants






Country of birth
Nationality
Date of entry to UK
Age
Gender
Household characteristics
 Trends over time
What ‘official’ and administrative
sources can’t tell us
 Motivations of migrants
 Insights into process
 ‘Lived experience’ of
migrants
 Limited information on
illegal working /
vulnerability / exploitation
 English language ability
(but in 2011 Census)
 Limited longitudinal
perspective (5 quarters of
LFS/APS)
 Limited information on
emigration
 Issue of short-term
movements
 Limited information on
demand side (i.e. from
employers – although
NESS provides context)
 How jobs were obtained
Migrant workers in the West Midlands:
Migrants’ motivations
Overwhelmingly economic
• Most important reason for
migration was to work/ find a
job/ earn money:
 62% of sample
 75% of those not working prior
to coming to the UK
“Money is the most important
thing. But not only of course.”
Other reasons all less important:
 learning English
 study
 join family
Exploration
Careers across boundaries
Employers’ motivations
To address labour shortages –
• 28% - a migrant worker was the
most suitable applicant
• 20% - migrant workers are more
willing to do this type of work
• 16% - migrant workers work
harder
• 14% - people from the UK are not
interested in doing this type of
work
• 13% - overall lack of applicants
 Mainly employed to meet ‘steady
demand throughout the year’
(64%)
Employers’ descriptors of migrant workers:
(evidence from the South East)
better-workers
do-a-good-job
flexible friendly
good-skills
extra-hours
get-on-with-the-job
good-workers
hard-workers
loyal
respect-for-the-job
skills
very-hard-workers
willing-to-learn willing-to-work
skilled-workers
willing-to-work-longer-hours
work-harder
BUT drawbacks of qualitative / local
studies … and other issues
 Limited information on broader labour market context
 Constraints on size of surveys – issues of generalising
from a limited number of cases
 How representative?
•
•
•
•
Shortcomings in ‘official’ and administrative statistics
also
Access to administrative data becoming more
problematic
Free movement – why count?
Value of mixed methods