Transcript Document

It’s all Political:
Why Demography isn’t just for
Demographers Anymore
Jack A. Goldstone
Political Demography: Ethnic, National and Religious
Dimensions
29-30 September , 2006
London School of Economics
I. How to think about population change
and conflict:
(1) Most conflict over resources caused by population
growth leads to only local and small-scale violence.
Large-scale violence is almost never caused mainly by
population growth.
(2) Conflict over resources caused by population growth
is a challenge, not simply a threat, and has often been
resolved in ways leading to greater cooperation, not
conflict. For example, there have been hardly any
confirmed examples of ‘water wars’ over river basins,
but there are many examples of international and crossregional cooperative agreements on how to manage
scarce water resources in the face of growing demand.
(3) Conflicts over resources caused by population
growth only lead to large-scale violence when such
conflicts interact with weak state capacity or inflexible
state policies that tend to exacerbate these conflicts,
channel them into political lines, and produce crossregional, cross-class, or cross-ethnic coalitions against
state authorities.
The basic conclusion: the relationship between
population change and political conflict is always
mediated by state capacity and state responses.
SIX GLOBAL POPULATION TRENDS
1. The bigger they are ...
Big Emerging Markets and the World Economy
2. Bye bye love …
The great slowdown in population growth in highincome countries
3. Here we come…
Third to First World Migration, problem or
solution?
4. Will you still love me when I’m 64? …. Aging
populations, health, work, and
retirement
5. Oops, I did it again…
AIDS, SARS, Bird Flu, and the next bad thing
6. How you gonna keep them down on the farm?…
Hyper-urbanization in the Third World
Table 1. Largest Countries
2005
China
1,315,844,000
India
1,103,371,000
USA
298,213,000
Indonesia
222,781,000
Brazil
186,405,000
Pakistan
157,935,000
Russia
143,202,000
Bang’desh 141,822,000
Nigeria
131,530,000
Japan
128,085,000
Mexico
107,029,000
Viet Nam
84,238,000
Philippines 83,054,000
Germany
82,689,000
Ethiopia
77,431,000
Egypt
74,033,000
Turkey
73,193,000
Iran
69,515,000
Thailand
64,233,000
France
60,496,000
UK
59,668,000
Italy
58,093,000
Congo, DR
57,549,000
South Korea 47,817,000
South Africa 47,432,000
2025
China
1,441,426,000
India
1,395,496,000
USA
350,103,000
Indonesia
263,746,000
Pakistan
229,353,000
Brazil
227,930,000
Bang’desh 193,752,000
Nigeria
190,287,000
Mexico
129,381,000
Russia
129,230,000
Japan
124,819,000
Ethiopia
118,354,000
Philippines 109,084,000
Viet Nam
104,343,000
Congo, DR 103,224,000
Egypt
101,092,000
Iran
89,042,000
Turkey
90,565,000
Germany
81,967,000
Thailand
72,635,000
UK
63,601,000
France
63,407,000
Uganda
60,601,000
Myanmar
59,002,000
Columbia
57,738,000
Table 2: Fastest Growing Countries 2000-2005
(Pop. Over 1 million)
Annual Growth Rate, %
United Arab Emirates
Afghanistan
Eritrea
Sierra Leone
Kuwait
Chad
Niger
Uganda
Benin
Burkina Faso
Palestine (occupied)
Somalia
Yemen
Burundi
Congo
Mali
Mauritania
Guinea-Bissau
Congo (Dem. Rep.)
Gambia
Iraq
Madagascar
Angola
Togo
Jordan
Saudi Arabia
Syria
Ethiopia
Guatemala
Paraguay
Rwanda
Senegal
Honduras
Laos
Equatorial Guinea
Nigeria
Guinea
Kenya
Malawi
Ghana
Nepal
Papua New Guinea
6.5
4.6
4.3
4.1
3.7
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.5
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.1
Map 1: Global Population Growth Rates, expected 2005-2010
Source: UN Environmental Programme, Geo Data Portal, http://geodata.grid.unep.ch/page.p
Table 3:
PROJECTED EUROPEAN POPULATION DECLINE TO 2030
ALL EUROPE
UK
France
Germany
Italy
Spain
Netherlands
Belgium
Russia
Poland
Czech Rep.
Hungary
Portugal
Ukraine
2010
2030
2050
728
704
650
61.3
61.6
82.3
58.1
40.5
16.8
10.4
140.8
38.7
10.2
9.9
10.7
46.2
64.3
63.2
79.6
55.4
39
17.7
10.4
126.5
37.4
9.6
9.3
10.7
42.3
64
61
73.6
50.4
35.5
17.7
9.8
110.8
33.8
8.5
8.4
9.9
37.7
Table 5: Oldest Countries
in 2000
Country
15-59
Italy
Greece
Germany
Japan
Sweden
Belgium
Spain
Bulgaria
Switzerland
Latvia
Portugal
Austria
United Kingdom
Ukraine
France
Estonia
Croatia
Denmark
Finland
Hungary
Norway
Luxembourg
Slovenia
Belarus
Romania
61.7
61.5
61.2
62.1
59.4
60.6
63.5
62.6
62.1
61.7
62.5
62.6
60.4
61.6
60.7
62.1
61.8
61.8
62.0
63.3
60.7
62.0
65.0
62.4
62.9
60+
24.1
23.4
23.2
23.2
22.4
22.1
21.8
21.7
21.3
20.9
20.8
20.7
20.6
20.5
20.5
20.2
20.2
20.0
19.9
19.7
19.6
19.4
19.2
18.9
18.8
in 2050
15-59
60+
46.2
46.2
49.5
45.2
48.3
50.3
44.5
47.6
48.6
47.5
49.9
47.4
51.1
49.0
51.3
48.5
53.0
53.0
50.6
49.4
51.7
57.1
45.1
49.6
50.0
42.3
40.7
38.1
42.3
37.7
35.5
44.1
38.6
38.9
37.5
35.7
41.0
34.0
38.1
32.7
35.9
30.8
31.8
34.4
36.2
32.3
25.2
42.4
35.8
34.2
Table 4: Youngest Countries
Country
Yemen
Niger
Uganda
Dem. Rep. of the Congo
Burkina Faso
Angola
Somalia
Burundi
Zambia
Chad
Palestinian Terr.
Benin
Malawi
Congo
Mali
Zimbabwe
Ethiopia
Nigeria
Tanzania
Solomon Islands
Madagascar
Senegal
Rwanda
Togo
Sierra Leone
age groups 2000 in
%
0-14 15-59 60+
50.1
49.9
49.2
48.8
48.7
48.2
48.0
47.6
46.5
46.5
46.4
46.4
46.3
46.3
46.1
45.2
45.2
45.1
45.0
44.8
44.7
44.3
44.3
44.3
44.2
46.3
46.9
47.0
46.7
46.5
47.3
48.1
48.1
48.9
48.6
48.7
49.4
49.0
48.7
48.1
50.1
50.1
50.2
51.0
51.0
50.5
51.5
51.5
50.9
51.0
3.6
3.3
3.8
4.5
4.8
4.5
3.9
4.3
4.5
4.9
4.9
4.2
4.6
5.1
5.7
4.7
4.7
4.8
4.0
4.2
4.7
4.2
4.2
4.9
4.8
Table 6:
Urban Agglomerations, 2015
Over 20 million
Tokyo
Mumbai
Delhi
Mexico City
Sao Paulo
15 to 20 million
New York
Jakarta
Lagos
Calcutta
Karachi
11 to 15 million
Buenos Aires
Cairo
Los Angeles
Shanghai
Manila
Rio de Janeiro
Osaka
Istanbul
Beijing
Table 7:
PROJECTED URBAN POPULATION, PERCENTAGE, in 2030
2003
2030
E. Africa
M. Africa
N. Africa
S. Africa
W. Africa
26
37
35
54
42
41
54
48
67
59
SE Asia
42
60
Europe
73
80
Sources for Tables
Tables 1 and 2: UN Population Division: World
Population Prospects, 2004 Revision
http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/WPP20
04/2004Highlights_finalrevised.pdf
Table 3: US Bureau of the Census, International Data
Base.
http://www.geohive.com/global/geo.php?xml=idb&xsl
=idb&par1=eu
Tables 4 and 5: UN Population Division.
note: projection for 2045-2050 based on mediumvariant for global population growth estimates by the
UN.
http://www.geohive.com/charts/pop_age.php
Tables 6 and Table 7: UN Population Division: World
Urbanization Prospects, 2003 Revision
http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wup20
03/WUP2003Report.pdf