Transcript No Slide Title
P R E S E N T A T I O N
MBIA Insurance Corporation
April 2005
MBIA’s results through 12/31/04
Capital Strength. Triple-A Performance.
Foundation Principles
Build the strongest team No-loss underwriting Triple-A ratings Build shareholder value - 1 -
Capital Strength. Triple-A Performance.
MBIA & The Financial Guarantee Product
MBIA is a “monoline” insurance company Irrevocable & unconditional guarantee of scheduled debt service when due The securities we guarantee are rated Triple-A by Standard & Poor's, Moody's and Fitch We guarantee a wide range of debt obligations
Benefits to Investors
Eliminates credit losses and downgrade risk; and significantly reduces “headline risk” Greatly improves liquidity and price stability Long-term “buy & hold” investor in credit risk Active surveillance; interests aligned with investor’s Diversification of portfolio
Capital Strength. Triple-A Performance.
- 2 -
Rating Agency Rationale
For Triple-A Financial Strength Rating
Conservative credit standards Strong capitalization levels Diversified insured portfolio High quality investments Stable profitability Highly experienced management - 3 -
Capital Strength. Triple-A Performance.
Monoline Industry -- Financial Strength
Claims-Paying Resources Rating Agency Ratios $ Billions (As of December 31, 2004) 14 12 10 8 6 4 $12.9
2 0 MBIA Leverage Ratio 46:1 $11.2
Ambac 41:1
* As of 9/30/04
$5.1
FSA* 66:1 Definition of Terms Claims-Paying Resources Leverage Ratio Credit Quality Ratio Tail Risk Ratio Dispersion Ratio Hard Capital Ratio Total Capital Ratio Margin of Safety
Formula: Formula: Formula: Formula: Formula: Formula: Formula: Formula:
$3.3
FGIC 73:1 $0.4
XLCA* 16:1 12/31/03 Credit Quality Tail Risk Ratio* Ratio* (Lower is Better) Dispersion Ratio* 12/31/03 Hard Capital Total Capital Margin of Ratio* Ratio* Safety** (Higher is Better) MBIA
Ambac FSA FGIC XLCA/XLFA Industry Avg. (2)
40 bps
40 bps 22 bps 16 bps 39 bps 34 bps
125 bps
131 bps 75 bps 67 bps 168 bps 115 bps
3.13x
3.28x
3.39x
4.12x
4.58x
3.51x
1.50x
1.45x
1.72x
1.92x
1.50x
1.55x
1.46x
1.43x
1.62x
1.78x
1.28x
1.49x
1.5-1.6x
1.3-1.4x
1.6-1.7x
1.3-1.4x
1.3-1.4x
(1) 1.4-1.5x
* Moody’s Measurements (Both Hard and Total Capital Ratios should be >1.30 to earn the Aaa) ** S&P’s Measurements (1.25x is the minimum for a AAA rating for a publicly-held company) (1) XLCA/XLFA’s Margin of Safety is an average of the weighted averages of XLCA’s and XLFA’s theoretical depression losses, claims-paying resources and capital remaining at end of depression.
(2) $ weighted average of NPO Statutory Capital + Unearned Premium Reserves + PV of Installment Premiums + Loss Reserves + Soft Capital Facilities Net Par Outstanding ÷ Claims-Paying Resources Expected PV of Net Losses/Adjusted Net Par Outstanding 99.9 Percentile Losses/Adjusted Net Par Outstanding 99.9 Percentile Losses ÷ Expected Losses Hard Capital (QSC & UPR) ÷ 99.9 Percentile Losses Total Capital (Hard & Soft Capital & PV Installment Premiums) ÷ 99.99 percentile losses Coverage of theoretical losses generated over a 7-year stress period by capital remaining at the end of the stress period - 4 -
Capital Strength. Triple-A Performance.
Financial Highlights
MBIA Inc. and Subsidiaries
(As of December 31, 2004) ($ in MM) Adjusted Direct Premiums Gross revenues from continuing operations Net Income Expense Ratio - Statutory Total Assets Claims-Paying Resources Loss Reserves
1999
710* 1,149 315 23.6% 12,247 8,539 469
2000
829 1,274 525 22.1% 13,865 9,140 503
2001
1,042 1,406 568 13.4% 16,210 10,087 581
2002
1,204 1,433 579 16.8% 18,835 11,015 621
2003
1,621 1,857 816 12.8% 30,324 12,639 691
2004
1,146 2,001 815 18.3% 33,027 12,888 727 * Starting 2001, we are reporting “ADP” (Adjusted Direct Premium), rather than “AGP” (Adjusted Gross Premium). ADP represents upfront premiums and the estimated present value of current period and future installment premiums for policies issued in the period. AGP netted our reinsurance with Ambac.
Capital Strength. Triple-A Performance.
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BBB+ 10.9%
Insured Portfolio - Credit Quality Distribution
MBIA’s Net Par Outstanding
December 31, 1999 $384 Billion 71.5% Rated A or Better A 34.8% December 31, 2004 $586 Billion 80.3% Rated A or Better A 25.8% A+ 9.7% A+ 12.2% BBB+ 5.1% BBB 16.3% - 6 - Capital Strength. Triple-A Performance. Percent of Net Par Outstanding by Bond Type (As of December 31, 2004) Utility 12% Pooled Corporate 5% CDO 14% Asset-Backed 5% Mortgage-Backed 8% General Obligation 25% Sovereign/Sub Sovereign 2% Housing 3% Investor-Owned Utilities 2% Special Revenue 8% $585.6 Billion Higher Education 3% Transportation 7% Health Care 6% Capital Strength. Triple-A Performance. - 7 - $10.2 billion as of December 31, 2004 Fixed-income securities Average quality Aa Only investment grade bonds No real estate Limits by bond sector, issuer, maturity and state Effective duration 5.27 years Average maturity 8.46 years Aaa 68% - 8 - Baa 1% A 14% Aa 17% Capital Strength. Triple-A Performance. Portfolio Sector Growth Total Net Par Outstanding U.S. Public Finance U.S. Structured Finance Non U.S. $400 $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 1995 $188B 1996 $233B 1997 $277B 1998 $359B 1999 $382B - 9 2000 $420B 2001 $452B 2002 $497B 2003 $541B 2004 $585B Capital Strength. Triple-A Performance. (As of December 31, 2004) $ in Billions 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 U.S. PFG U.S. STF Non U.S. INTL Capital Strength. Triple-A Performance. - 10 - Key Characteristics State of the art analytic and modeling tools Coordinate human capital Rigorous approval process Ongoing refinement via feedback mechanisms Two levels of underwriting committees Underwriting Committee Executive Risk Committee - 11 - Capital Strength. Triple-A Performance. Public Finance Essentiality Issuer Strength Municipal Willingness and ability to pay Minimum size of jurisdiction/tax area Diversity of taxpayers/taxes Legal basis Legal Provisions Investment Grade Special Revenue Public purpose/community support Size of institution/service area and strong market position Diversity of users/revenue Ample/diverse liquidity and historical debt service coverage over 1.0x Growth based - projections must pass worst/probable case scenario Capital Strength. Triple-A Performance. - 12 - Structured Finance Goal: Asset pools diversified by geography and industry with structural protections against concentrations Assets Historical asset pool information and due diligence on statistical sample Structure First loss protection via excess cash flow, reserve accounts, overcollateralization, bank letters-of credit Legal structure separates assets from seller/servicer through “true sale” to a bankruptcy remote vehicle. Also perfected first security interest Asset performance tests for delinquency, losses, etc. trap excess cash flow into a reserve account, re-direct excess cash flow, transfer servicing Players Investment grade and non investment grade seller/servicers: financially viable with successful history of originating and servicing Financial covenants: Termination of new asset purchases (revolving deals) Trapping excess cash flow Accelerated debt paydown Servicing transfer On-site financial and operational review - 13 - Capital Strength. Triple-A Performance. MBIA Loss History Inception to December 31, 2004 Issues insured Debt Service Insured from Inception: Aggregate Incurred Losses: * Over 99,000 $ 1.820 Trillion $ 586 Million Case Loss Reserves: Paid Losses: $ 247 Million $ 339 Million Losses Equal to 0.03% of Insured Debt Service Since Inception * Includes $236 million for AHERF Unallocated Reserves: $284 Million Capital Strength. Triple-A Performance. - 14 - Observations The probability of MBIA defaulting on a guaranty is on the order of 100 times less than the probability of a Triple-A corporate defaulting on its debt MBIA holds capital equal to a 99.99 th percentile or a 1 in 10,000 event MBIA’s product diversification, rigorous selection and underwriting process and active monitoring and surveillance lowers portfolio risk and improves the quality of our guaranty International expansion lowers an insurer’s portfolio risk - 15 - Capital Strength. Triple-A Performance. Overview and MBIA Profile (as of June 30, 2004) Substantial growth potential - 20%+ CAGR Globalization and convergence of capital markets Privatization Decentralization International offices London, Paris, Madrid, Milan, Sydney, Tokyo and Singapore. Depth of analytical talent in Armonk supports our global effort Product specialists in Armonk work jointly with analysts located in overseas offices. Same underwriting process and committees as in U.S. International Net Par Outstanding represents 18% of the 12/31/04 book. International ADP YTD 2004 represents 35% of the company’s total. Capital Strength. Triple-A Performance. - 16 - Top 10 Country Exposures (excluding Global Portfolios*) - As of 12/31/04 Country United Kingdom Germany Australia France Japan Spain Italy Canada Chile** Portugal Foreign Currency Rating AAA/Aaa AAA/Aaa AAA/Aaa AAA/Aaa Aaa/AA AAA/Aaa Aa2/AA AAA/Aaa Baa1/A Aa2/AA Total: Net Par ($MM) 14,675 10,903 6,150 2,258 2,084 1,922 1,912 1,730 1,646 1,560 44,842 Total International Net Par: Global (Intl) Portfolio*: 104,994 53,913 Total Book Net Par: 585,575 % of Intl Net Par 14.0% 10.4% 5.9% 2.2% 2.0% 1.8% 1.8% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 42.7% 51.3% % of Total Book Net Par 2.5% 1.9% 1.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 7.7% 9.2% *Represents the aggregation of exposure to transactions that span multiple countries **Emerging market exposure remains modest. Net Par from this country and other Emerging Markets countries equaled $5,778 million, representing 5.5% of International Net Par and 1.0% of total Net Par. - 17 - Capital Strength. Triple-A Performance. $105 Billion Outstanding (as of December 31, 2004) CDO's 39% Pooled Obligations* 9% Asset-Backed 5% * Includes direct corporates, corporate pools Mortgage-Backed 20% $105 Billion - 18 IOU's 3% Financial Risk 1% Transportation 9% Utilities 4% Sub-Sovereign 1% Sovereign 8% Other Infrastructure 1% Capital Strength. Triple-A Performance. Price Protection $102 $101 $100 $99 $98 $97 $96 $95 $94 $99.63 $98.66 $99.53 $97.53 Insured (MBIA) Sen/Sub Jun-99 (0.1%) (1.15%) Jul-99 MBIA - ContiMortgage Home Equity Loan Trust 6.63% - 12/15/18 Sen/Sub - ContiMortgage Home Equity Loan Trust 6.36% 11/15/19 Source: Bloomberg - 19 - Capital Strength. Triple-A Performance. Hidden Value - Price Protection Per $100 of Par Value 140 120 100 12/7/00 12/21/00 $103.72 $102.05 $102.81 80 $68.05 60 40 20 0 1/14/01 $102.81 $45.00 12/31/01 $102.81 $95.00 6/6/02 11/13/03 $106.00 $101.50 $115.00 $110.00 Insured Uninsured Southern California Edison Bonds 7.625% 2010 - 20 - Capital Strength. Triple-A Performance. How to Measure Exposure to MBIA Joint Default Probability Approach: “gross-up” standard limit use joint default probabilities to Tenor Approach: vary exposure by tenor of underlying transaction Risk Based Capital Charge Approach: calculate the amount of incremental risk covered by MBIA as demonstrated by the S&P capital charge BIS Risk Weighted Approach: Use the BIS guidelines to calculate the amount of exposure in a deal which is attributable to MBIA Capital Strength. Triple-A Performance. - 21 - Joint Default Probability Approach Default probability of MBIA wrapped assets far lower than default probability of unwrapped, Triple-A rated assets: Default probability of Aaa rated corporate -- 0.79%* Default probability of A2 rated ABS (1/3)/munis(2/3) -- 0.95%** Default probability of A2 rated corporates/munis wrapped by MBIA - .0079 X .0095 = .000075*** Conclusion: The joint default probability of an average MBIA-wrapped security is less than 1% of an unwrapped Triple-A corporate (.000075/.0079 = .00949). In terms of default probability, $10 million of exposure to unwrapped, Triple-A rated corporates is equivalent credit risk to $1.05 billion of exposure to MBIA wrapped obligations Source: Moody’s Feb 2002 Corporate Bond Default Study (10 year average cumulative default rates by ratings over 1970-2000 period) & Moody’s Portfolio Risk Model for Financial Guarantors, July 2000. * This does not take into account that MBIA is less likely to default than a Triple-A rated corporate. ** Assumes that ABS defaults at the same rate as corporates, which is not true; ABS default less frequently. *** Does not take into account correlation risk. - 22 - Capital Strength. Triple-A Performance. MBIA’s Book Value 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 l l Savings and Loan crisis l l l Hurricane Andrew - 50 killed, $25B in damage in Southern Florida l Russian crisis U.S. Recession, declining real estate values, stress on munis and consumer ABS; Philadelphia financial crisis l l Subprime mortgage sector difficulties; AHERF bankruptcy; l Capital Asset write-off Black Monday Stock Market Drop l Gulf War; l Brevard County Lease Revenue Bonds l Mississippi River flood, 52 killed, $15-$20B in damage, 70,000 displaced; l First World Trade Center bombing, Port Authority exposure l l l California earthquake (Northridge) 57 killed, $15B in damage; Orange County bankruptcy; Mexico financial crisis l l Iraq war; CA crisis l US Tech bubble burst; l California utility crisis, PG&E in Ch 11 , SoCal Ed restructuring l 9/11 - Afghan war l Airline consolidation stresses airports; l Declining enrollment stresses colleges l Asian crisis; l Subprime auto sector difficulties; l Balanced Budget Act - stress on health care sector l l l EETCS challenged; CDOs under scrutiny; Consumer ABS stressed Capital Strength. Triple-A Performance. - 23 - MBIA Strengths Rated Triple-A by Moody's, Standard and Poor's, and Fitch Leading financial guarantee insurance company Excellent credit quality and diversification of insured portfolio Strong financial position Highly rated and liquid investment portfolio Conservative underwriting and monitoring standards Strong management team Capital Strength. Triple-A Performance. - 24 - For more information about MBIA Insurance Corporation please contact us: Contact Italy and Greece: Luis Cuttica European Infrastructure: Paul David Phone +39 02 86 337 627 +44 20 7920 6360 Fixed Income Investor Relations: Charlie Williams +1-914-765-3481 Chip Reilly Stephanie Dougherty +1-914-765-3227 +1-914-765-3631 Equity Investor Relations: Willard Hill Website: www.mbia.com/investor/index.html +1-914-765-3860 E-mail [email protected] [email protected] Capital Strength. Triple-A Performance. - 25 -MBIA Insurance Corporation
Insurance Investment Portfolio
Overview of MBIA’s Portfolio
Total Portfolio Runoff – Declining Net Par Outstanding
Risk Management
Risk Management Criteria
Risk Management Criteria
MBIA Insurance Corporation
Portfolio Management
International
International
International MBIA Net Par by Bond Type
Benefits to Investors
Why Sell Insured Bonds?
Exposure to MBIA
Benefits to Investors
MBIA Performance Perseveres Through Adversity
Conclusion
Contacts