The risks of climate change: international responses through adaptation and mitigation

Jean Palutikof National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility

Charles Darwin Symposium 2011

What’s NCCARF up to?

• ARGP: – Stephen Garnett, Adaptation Strategies for Australian Birds – Currently have a Call open for Indigenous Communities and Adaptation, which closes 28 th October: information session this evening • Synthesis and Integrative Research Program: – Will open a Call in about 2 weeks on further topics • Planning for Phase 3 Charles Darwin Symposium 2011

The International Process

Charles Darwin Symposium 2011

UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol

• • • •

Framework Convention on Climate Change Started at the Rio Summit, 1992 Entered into force March 1994 To consider actions to reduce global warming (

mitigation

) and To manage whatever temperature increases are inevitable (

adaptation

)

• • • • •

Kyoto Protocol Sets up binding commitments Adopted in Kyoto, December 1997 Entered into force February 2005 Australia signed December 2007 First commitment period ends in 2012 Rio +20: 2012: June 2012

Charles Darwin Symposium 2011

COP-15: Copenhagen

• The UNFCCC holds an annual Conference of the Parties (to the Kyoto Protocol) to negotiate action • Copenhagen was to put in place a successor to the Kyoto Protocol, and develop a roadmap • It failed, leaving the international process in limbo Charles Darwin Symposium 2011

Why did it fail?

• The UNFCCC process is around one country one vote • The big emitters (now and future) won’t accept external policing: USA + – BRIC: Brazil, Russia, India, China – BASIC: Brazil, South Africa, India, China

Rank Country

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 China USA European Union Brazil Indonesia Russia India Charles Darwin Symposium 2011

Percentage of global total

16.36% 15.74% 12.08% 6.47% 4.63% 4.58% 4.25%

CO2 emissions from fossil fuels, total

USA + BRIC: Brazil, Russia, India, China USA + BASIC: Brazil, South Africa, India, China Charles Darwin Symposium 2011

Charles Darwin Symposium 2011

Outcome from Copenhagen

• The Copenhagen Accord • Countries can pledge reductions, which they self police • It isn’t enough: – Even if countries met their pledges, unlikely to avoid ‘dangerous’ climate change (warming greater than 2 o C) • COP-16 Cancun; COP-17 Cape Town Charles Darwin Symposium 2011

COP-16 Cancún

• REDD+ [Reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation] – a roadmap but no financing • Green Climate Fund: legal architecture for management of the $100 billion by 2020 • MRV: Monitoring, reporting and verification of adaptation and mitigation schemes • Carbon Capture and Storage in the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) • Kyoto Protocol "no gap" negotiations • Restoration of the two-track negotiating process • Cancun Adaptation Framework Charles Darwin Symposium 2011

Over the next twelve months

• Busy times – COP-17 Durban – Rio+20 in mid 2012 – Big science meetings: • Planet under Pressure • Arizona Adaptation meeting – IPCC Fifth Assessment author meetings, ready for delivery in 2013/14 – Getting ready for the carbon economy in Australia Charles Darwin Symposium 2011

Who taxes carbon, who trades?

• Sweden introduced a carbon tax in 1991, followed by Finland, Norway, the Netherlands • Japan has mandated a “household energy tax” equivalent to $21/ton of carbon • The 25-member European Union has a carbon trading scheme with a Phase 2 price around $10-12 per tonne • New Zealand is in the transition period of its ETS • Regional schemes: British Columbia, Boulder CO, NSW, Tokyo … Charles Darwin Symposium 2011

Role of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Charles Darwin Symposium 2011

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Formed in 1988 under WMO and UNEP To provide science of climate change for the UNFCCC assessments of the Responsibility to provide policy makers with objective findings that are policy relevant but not policy prescriptive an ‘honest broker’ Charles Darwin Symposium 2011

Inter-relationships of UNFCCC and IPCC Charles Darwin Symposium 2011

The four AR4 reports

• The Fourth Assessment began in 2002 • The three 1000 page Working Group reports, and the Synthesis Report, were published in 2007 • There were ~500 authors, three review periods • Some 2000 people involved altogether

To produce an Assessment Report:

2002 2002 2003 2004 Elections to appoint Chair, Co-Chairs and Bureau Decision taken to produce report Outline approved by governments Authors and review editors selected 2004 Sept WGII 1st Lead Author Meeting - Vienna 2004 Dec Zero Order Draft (ZOD) Delivered 2005 Feb 2005 Mar 2005 June 2005 Sept 2005 Nov 2006 Apr 2006 July 2006 Sept 2006 Nov 2007 Feb 2007 Apr 2007 Dec Informal Peer Review of ZOD

Where the AR5 sits now

2nd Lead Author Meeting - Australia First Order Draft (FOD) Delivered Expert Review of FOD 3rd Lead Author Meeting - Mexico Second Order Draft (SOD) Delivered Government and Expert Review of SOD 4th Lead Author Meeting – Cape Town Final Government) Draft Delivered Final Government Review Approval by WGII Plenary Publication

The people in an IPCC Assessment

• The IPCC Chair and the Vice-Chairs: elected • Secretariat: standing • Working Group: – Reconstituted for each Assessment cycle – 2 Co-Chairs and the Bureau: elected – A Technical Support Unit • Co-ordinating Lead Authors, 2 for each chapter • Lead Authors, typically 6 for each chapter • Review editors: 2 per chapter • Contributing Authors = 2000/assessment • Expert and government reviewers

The product: The WGII Fourth Assessment

Summary for Policymakers Technical Summary 1. Assessment of observed changes and responses in natural and managed systems SECTORS AND SYSTEMS 2. New assessment methodologies and the characterisation of future conditions 3. Fresh water resources and their management 4. Ecosystems, their properties, goods and services 5. Food, fibre and forest products 6. Coastal systems and low-lying areas 7. Industry, settlement, and society 8. Human health REGIONS 9: Africa, 10: Asia, 11: Australia and New Zealand, 12: Europe, 13: Latin America 14: North America, 15: Polar Regions (Arctic and Antarctic), 16: Small Islands RESPONSES TO IMPACTS 17. Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity 18. Inter-relationships between adaptation and mitigation 19. Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change 20. Perspectives on climate change and sustainability

Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 The key is the Summary for Policymakers (SPM): A 15 page summary which is

approved

by governments, leading to

acceptance

of the underlying report

The Approval Meeting

• Government negotiators on the floor • IPCC on the podium: Co-Chairs, TSU, authors • Text of SPM is projected line by line and approved Charles Darwin Symposium 2011

Text submitted to the Final Government Review

Roughly 20-30% of species are likely to be at high risk of irreversible extinction if global average temperature exceeds 1.5-2.5°C. * N [4.4]

Text projected at the Approval Meeting Final published text

Approximately 20-30% of plant and animal species assessed so far are likely to be at increased risk of extinction if increases in global average temperature exceed 1.5-2.5

o C Charles Darwin Symposium 2011

Contribution of the IPCC

1.

Evolving the ‘accepted’ science 2.

Definition of ‘dangerous’ climate change – +2 o C global mean temperature – but baseline woolly 3. Thinking around how dangerous climate change can be avoided Charles Darwin Symposium 2011

Evolution of the science

FAR: SAR: TAR: AR4:

insufficient observational evidence to make a statement

‘The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate’ ‘Most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations’ ‘Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is

very likely

due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.’ Charles Darwin Symposium 2011

What is dangerous climate change?

Charles Darwin Symposium 2011

Avoiding dangerous climate change

Tell us that global emissions have to peak by 2015-2020, and to decline rapidly until 2050 and beyond if dangerous climate change is to be avoided Charles Darwin Symposium 2011

Strengths and weaknesses of the IPCC

• The rigorous review process, by scientists and governments – Each chapter is reviewed three times – Elapsed time means science has moved on • The approval process, bringing together governments and scientists to approve the SPM line-by-line – Governments are ‘bought in’ to the key statements in the SPM – Science is ‘watered down’ • It is no more and no less than an Assessment – Perceived by governments as unthreatening and impartial – Widely misunderstood to do more • Each Assessment is largely free-standing – Able to renew itself for every Assessment – Lack of corporate memory Charles Darwin Symposium 2011

Final messages

1.

– – Where do we stand: • • • While governments hesitate, the evidence mounts: Russian ban on wheat exports after the 2010 hot summer Texas wildfires Science under threat IPCC subject to extensive evaluation e.g., IAC Report 2.

– – Is the IPCC worthwhile?

Is there a need?

If so, how would we fill it without the IPCC?

3.

The Australian carbon legislation is an important global development Charles Darwin Symposium 2011