Transcript Slide 1

Brazil:
Recent Economic Developments
Afonso Bevilaqua / Alexandre Schwartsman
June 2004
1
I. Economic Activity
II. Inflation
III. External Sector
IV. Fiscal Policy and Debt Management
V. Strengthening Resistance to Shocks
2
I. Economic Activity
3
GDP Growth
Seasonally Adjusted
1.6
1.4
%
0.5
1Q03
2Q03
2Q03
2Q03
1Q04
-0.9
-1.2
4
GDP Growth
Seasonally adjusted
GDP
Agriculture
Industry
Mineral
Manufacturing
Construction
Utilities
Services
Commerce
Transport
Communication
Government
Financial
Rents
Other
Consumption
Government
Investment
Exports
Imports
1Q03
2Q03
3Q03
4Q03
1Q04 vs
1Q03
1Q04
Last 4
quarters
-1.2%
2.9%
-2.7%
-0.9%
1.0%
-3.7%
0.5%
-4.6%
3.0%
1.4%
5.6%
1.8%
1.6%
3.3%
1.6%
2.7%
6.4%
2.9%
0.0%
4.0%
-1.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-3.9%
6.0%
-2.3%
1.3%
0.7%
1.2%
-8.9%
0.3%
-0.6%
-0.1%
0.2%
0.8%
0.4%
1.2%
0.1%
-
-
-
-
-
5.1%
7.4%
-1.9%
1.1%
1.9%
1.1%
-2.1%
-1.4%
1.8%
-0.9%
0.7%
0.8%
1.1%
-1.0%
-1.6%
0.4%
-5.1%
-3.1%
3.1%
-1.2%
0.3%
-7.1%
6.2%
-1.9%
0.5%
0.0%
3.2%
0.8%
0.7%
1.5%
0.2%
4.0%
5.7%
8.2%
0.3%
0.8%
2.3%
5.6%
4.0%
1.2%
1.5%
2.2%
19.3%
11.7%
-2.3%
1.0%
-5.7%
14.6%
2.1%
5
GDP After FX Crises
Brazil (2004)
-0.2%
-4.9%
-6.2%
-6.7%
-7.4%
-10.5%
3.5%
Brazil (2003)
Russia (1998)
Mexico (1995)
Korea (1998)
Malaysia (1998)
Thailand (1998)
-10.8%
Uruguay (2002)
-11.0%
Argentina (2002)
-13.3%
Source: IMF, Brazil 2004: Central Bank estimate
Indonesia (1998)
6
Real Retail Sales
Seasonally Adjusted, 3-Month Moving Average
Average 2003 = 100
107
105
103
101
99
97
Jan
01
Jul
01
Jan
02
Jul
02
Jan
03
Jul
03
Mar
04
7
Retail Sales
%
Mar 2004
Mar 2003
1Q2004
1Q2003
+6.71
+6.29
Furniture & Electronics
+24.75
+21.75
Fuel and Lubricants
+8.26
+5.87
Supermarket, Food,
Beverage and Tobacco
+3.55
+3.18
Vehicles & Autoparts
+12.56
+9.87
Clothing
+2.36
-0.20
Total
8
Retail Sales
%
Accumulated growth since June 2003, seasonally adjusted
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
Furniture & Electronics
Vehicles & Autoparts
Clothing
Supermarket
Jun
03
Jul
03
Aug
03
Sep
03
Oct
03
Nov
03
Dec
03
Jan
04
Feb
04
Mar
04
9
Credit x Demand
106
1.90
105
103
1.80
102
1.75
101
Credit to Individuals
right scale
100
R$ billion
2003 = 100
1.85
Retail Sales
left scale
104
1.70
99
98
1.65
Jun
03
Jul
03
Source: Bacen
Aug Sep
03
03
Oct
03
Nov Dec
03
03
Jan Feb
04
04
Mar
04
Apr
04
10
Total Credit
110
Jun 2003 = 100
108
106
104
102
100
98
Jun
03
Jul
03
Aug
03
Sep
03
Oct
03
Nov
03
Dec
03
Jan
04
Feb
04
Mar
04
Apr
04
11
Lending Interest Rates
90
41
86
Corporates
%p.a.
82
38
right scale
78
35
74
Individuals
left scale
70
32
66
62
29
Jan
03
Mar
03
Source: Bacen
May
03
Jul
03
Sep
03
Nov
03
Jan
04
Apr
04
12
Real Interest Rates (360-day swap)
40
32
% p.a.
Avg 04
9.9%
24 Avg 97/99
21.4%
Avg 01/02
17.6%
16
Avg 03
13.2%
Avg 00
12.3%
8
Jan
97
Jan
98
Source: Bacen
Jan
99
Jan
00
Jan
01
Jan
02
Jan
03
Jan
04
13
Industrial Sales x Industrial Output
120
Industrial Sales
Jun 03 = 100
115
110
105
Industrial Output
100
Jun
03
Jul
03
Source: IBGE, CNI
Aug
03
Sep
03
Oct
03
Nov
03
Dec
03
Jan
04
Feb
04
Mar
04
14
Quarterly Industrial Survey:
Level of Inventories
Insufficient
Excessive
Balance
10
% of Sample
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
Apr 03
Source: FGV
Jul 03
Oct 03
Jan 04
Apr 04
15
Real Industrial Sales
120
s.a., Jun 2003 = 100
115
110
105
100
95
Jun
03
Source: CNI
Jul
03
Aug
03
Sep
03
Oct
03
Nov
03
Dec
03
Jan
04
Feb
04
Mar
04
16
Industrial Output
110
s.a., Jun 2003 = 100
108
106
104
102
100
98
Jun
03
Source: IBGE
Jul
03
Aug
03
Sep
03
Oct
03
Nov
03
Dec
03
Jan
04
Feb
04
Mar
04
17
Industrial Output
%
Total
Capital Goods
Intermediate Goods
Consumer Goods
Durable
Semi-Durable e Non-Durable
Source: IBGE
Mar 04
Mar 03
1Q04
1Q03
+11.9
+5.8
+36.5
+20.9
+6.8
+4.5
+13.7
+4.6
+43.9
+20.5
+7.4
+1.1
18
Industrial Output (1994-2004)
110
s.a., 2002 = 100
105
100
95
90
85
80
Jan
94
Apr
95
Jul
96
Sources: IBGE, Bacen
Oct
97
Jan
99
Apr
00
Jul
01
Oct
02
Mar
04
19
Formal Employment
104
s.a., Jun 2003 = 100
103
102
101
100
99
Jun
03
Jul
03
Aug
03
Sep
03
Oct
03
Nov Dec
03
03
Source: Ministry of Labor and Employment
Jan
04
Feb
04
Mar
04
Apr
04
20
Industrial Employment
São Paulo (Fiesp)
101,5
Brazil (CNI)
s.a., Jun 2003 = 100
101,0
100,5
100,0
99,5
Jun
03
Jul
03
Ago
03
Sep
03
Oct
03
Nov Dec
03
03
Jan
04
Feb
04
Mar Apr
04 04
21
Industrial Real Wages
107
Mar 04 / Jun 03 = 6.9%
Mar 04 / Mar 03 = 8.8%
s.a., Jun 2003 = 100
106
105
104
103
102
101
100
99
98
Jun
03
Source: CNI
Jul
03
Ago
03
Sep
03
Oct
03
Nov
03
Dec
03
Jan
04
Feb
04
Mar
04
22
Urban Average Real Earnings
108
106
Mar 2002 = 100
104
102
100
98
96
94
92
90
88
86
Mar
02
Source: IBGE
Aug
02
Jan
03
Jun
03
Nov
03
Apr
04
23
Steel Output
s.a., Jun 2003 = 100
103
100
97
94
91
Jun
03
Source: IBS
Jul
03
Aug
03
Sep
03
Oct
03
Nov Dec
03
03
Jan
04
Feb
04
Mar
04
Apr
04
24
Power Consumption: São Paulo
113
s.a., Jun 2003 = 100
110
107
104
101
98
Jun
03
Jul
03
Source: Eletrobrás
Aug Sep
03
03
Oct
03
Nov Dec Jan
03
03
04
Feb
04
Mar
04
Apr
04
25
Packing Paper Shipments
s.a., Jun 2003 = 100
114
110
106
102
98
Jun
03
Source: ABPO
Jul
03
Aug Sep
03
03
Oct
03
Nov Dec
03
03
Jan
04
Feb
04
Mar
04
Apr
04
26
Business Confidence
70
60
Net Expectations
50
Future Conditions
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
Current Conditions
-30
-40
Jan
02
Apr
02
Jul
02
Oct
02
Source: FGV Industrial Survey
Jan
03
Apr
03
Jul
03
Oct
03
Jan
04
Apr
04
27
In a Nutshell
• Economic activity recovered since 3Q03, but:
– Recovery is not symmetric and does not occur at the
same pace in all sectors.
– Sales outpaced production growth, affecting level of
inventories.
– Industrial output growth led by durable and capital
goods.
– Industrial employment and payroll have reacted since
4Q03.
– Positive leading indicators for 2Q04.
28
II. Inflation
29
IPCA Inflation Rate
3.5
3.0
2.5
%
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
Jan
02
Apr
02
Jul
02
Oct
Jan
02
03
IPCA-15
Apr
Jul
03
03
IPCA
Oct
03
Jan
04
May
04
30
Wholesale Industrial Prices
2.29
2.5
%
2.0
1.66
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
IPA - IPA 10
M
Dec
03
IPA - IPA DI
10
IPA - IPA M
DI
Jan
04
IPA - IPA - IPA 10
M
DI
Feb
04
IPA - IPA - IPA - IPA - IPA - IPA 10
M
DI
10
M
DI
Mar
04
Apr
04
IPA - IPA 10
M
May
04
31
Wholesale Industrial Prices x
Consumer Industrial Prices
7
Wholesale industrial prices
6
5
4
%
3
2
1
0
Retail Industrial prices
-1
-2
Jan
96
Jul
97
Jan
99
Jul
00
Jan
02
Jul
03
Apr
04
32
Commodities Prices
Chicago Commodities Bureau (CRB) Price Index
110
100
1995 = 100
Food
90
80
70
Metals
60
Jan
02
Aug
02
Mar
03
Oct
03
Apr
04
33
Core Inflation
IPCA: 3-Month Moving Average
1.8
1.6
1.4
%
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Jan
01
Jul
01
Jan
02
Smoothed trimmed means
Jul
02
Exclusion
Jan
03
Jul
03
Apr
04
Non-Smoothed trimmed means
34
Tradable x Non-Tradable Inflation
IPCA: 3-Month Moving Average
3.5
3.0
2.5
%
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
Jan
00
Jul
00
Jan
01
Jul
01
Tradables
Jan
02
Jul
02
Jan
03
Jul
03
Apr
04
Non-Tradables
35
Inflation:
(% of Items with Price Increases)
90
%
80
Apr 04
65.2
70
60
50
Jan
01
Jul
01
Jan
02
Jul
02
Jan
03
Jul
03
Jan
04
36
Market Inflation Expectations: 2004
8.0
7.0
6.5%
% p.a.
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
Jan
02
May
02
Sep
02
Jan
03
May
03
Sep
03
Jan
04
May
04
37
Quarterly Inflation Expectations: 2004
1.9
%
1.7
1.5
1.3
1.1
Dec
03
Jan
04
1T2004
Feb
04
2T2004
Mar
04
Apr
04
3T2004
May
04
4T2004
38
Inflation Expectations: 12-Month
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6.0%
6
5
Jan
03
Mar
03
May
03
Jul
03
Sep
03
Nov
03
Jan
04
Mar
04
May
04
39
12-Month Inflation
19
16
%
13
Apr 04
5.3%
10
7
4
Jan
01
Jan
02
Jan
03
Actual
Jan
04
Jan
05
Market Expectation
40
III. External Sector
41
Current Account vs. Trade Balance
6,000
28,000
24,000
0
-6,000
16,000
-12,000
12,000
-18,000
8,000
4,000
-24,000
Trade balance
Current account
20,000
0
-30,000
-36,000
Jan
96
-4,000
-8,000
Dec
96
Nov
97
Oct
98
Sep
99
Aug
00
Jul
01
Jun
02
May Apr
03
04
42
Current Account Surplus: 1994/2004
2
0.8
1
1.1
% of GDP
0
-1
-0.3
-2
-3
-4
-5
- 4.7
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004*
*2004: 12-month to April
43
Quarterly Trade Balance
7.5
Exports
7.0
US$ billion
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
Imports
4.5
4.0
3.5
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
44
Exports and Imports Quantum
Seasonally Adjusted
215.8
220
Exports
200
1996 = 100
180
160
140
Imports
120
107.4
100
80
60
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
45
Export and Import Prices
110
1996 = 100
105
100
95
Imports
92.7
90
86.3
85
80
75
1996
Exports
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
46
Exports
Jan-Apr 2004
Quantitites
Prices
Cross-effect
US$ mn
US$ mn
%
US$ mn
%
US$ mn
%
Exports
5 283
3 430
65%
1 701
32%
209
4%
Primary
1 945
612
31%
1 206
62%
128
7%
556
309
56%
225
41%
22
4%
2 837
2 509
88%
269
9%
59
2%
Semimanufactures
Manufactures
Jan-Dec 2003
US$ mn
Quantitites
Prices
Cross-effect
US$ mn
%
US$ mn
%
US$ mn
%
Exports
12 722
9 975
78%
2 594
20%
291
2%
Primary
4 226
2 222
53%
1 772
42%
233
6%
Semimanufactures
1 979
870
44%
1 011
51%
98
5%
Manufactures
6 655
6 883
103%
- 189
-3%
- 39
-1%
47
Imports Substitution
Imported Quantum
left scale
Dec 1995 = 100
132
116
128
114
124
112
120
110
116
108
112
106
108
104
104
102
Industrial Output
right scale
100
100
96
98
92
96
Dec
95
Dec
96
Dec
97
Dec
98
Dec
99
Dec
00
Dec
01
Dec
02
Dec
03
48
Export Growth Remains Diversified
Exports by Product
Jan- Apr 2004
Product group
12-month
Absolute change
USD million Share
%
change
Product group
Absolute change
USD million Share
1.027
685
664
546
502
308
301
19%
13%
13%
10%
9%
6%
6%
35%
32%
36%
47%
47%
22%
26%
Transport equipment
Soy
Metal
Mechanical
Meats
Chemicals
Paper & pump
Wood
Sugar
Shoes & Leather
223
4%
37%
211
167
4%
3%
53%
19%
Ore
Textiles
Wood
Other
648
12%
9%
5.282 100%
25%
Transport equipment
Metal
Soy
Meats
Mechanical
Chemicals
Ore
Total
%
change
2.287
1.925
1.618
1.321
1.287
1.012
547
17%
14%
12%
10%
9%
7%
4%
24%
28%
25%
44%
38%
25%
23%
545
475
435
4%
3%
3%
16%
37%
23%
Other
2.328
17%
10%
Total
13.781
100%
21%
49
Export Growth Remains Diversified
Exports by Country
Jan- Apr 2004
Market
12-month
Absolute change
%
USD million Share change
Market
Absolute change
%
USD million Share change
Argentina
902
17%
82%
Argentina
2.617
19%
92%
China
382
7%
32%
China
1.623
12%
49%
Netherlands
324
6%
29%
Netherlands
1.129
8%
33%
Italy
268
5%
41%
Germany
602
4%
22%
Germany
260
5%
28%
Italy
531
4%
27%
Venezuela
249
5%
221%
Korea
476
3%
53%
France
186
4%
38%
Spain
461
3%
36%
Spain
175
3%
43%
Mexico
431
3%
17%
Mexico
160
3%
21%
Chile
407
3%
25%
South Korea
157
3%
53%
United States
400
3%
3%
Other
2.219
42%
16%
Other
5.103
37%
18%
Total
5.282 100%
25%
Total
13.781 100%
21%
50
Foreign Direct Investment
35
US$ billion
30
25
20
15
10
2004*
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
0
1995
5
FDI Inflows Related to Privatizations
*2004: BCB estimate
51
IV. Fiscal Policy and Debt Management
52
Consolidated Public Sector Primary Surplus
6
5
Apr 04
4.23
% of GDP
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
Jul 94
Feb 96
Sep 97
Apr 99
Nov 00
Jun 02
Jan 04
53
Fiscal Result
Jan-Apr
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2003
I - NATIONAL TREASURY
Revenues
Transfers
Net revenues
Expenditures
2004 change
1.5%
15.1%
3.0%
12.1%
10.3%
3.2%
16.6%
3.5%
13.2%
9.7%
2.9%
16.4%
3.7%
12.8%
9.6%
3.0%
17.5%
3.8%
13.6%
10.3%
3.7%
18.6%
4.2%
14.5%
10.6%
4.4%
18.3%
4.0%
14.3%
9.5%
6.62%
20.42%
4.52%
15.90%
9.17%
5.0%
0.5%
5.1%
0.6%
5.1%
0.5%
5.4%
0.6%
5.4%
0.6%
4.8%
4.0%
4.0%
4.4%
4.6%
5.2%
0.6%
0.3%
3.5%
5.30%
0.42%
0.27%
3.19%
5.23%
0.48%
0.46%
3.62%
Subsidies
II - INSS
Revenues
Benefits
III - CENTRAL BANK
0.3%
-0.8%
5.1%
5.9%
0.0%
0.3%
-1.0%
5.0%
6.0%
-0.1%
0.3%
-0.9%
5.1%
6.0%
0.0%
0.4%
-1.1%
5.2%
6.3%
-0.1%
0.2%
-1.3%
5.3%
6.5%
-0.1%
0.4%
-1.7%
5.3%
7.1%
0.0%
0.10%
-1.27%
4.95%
6.22%
-0.04%
0.19% 0.09%
-1.65% -0.38%
5.34% 0.39%
6.99% 0.77%
-0.04% 0.00%
Central Government Primary Result
0.7% 2.2% 1.9% 1.8% 2.4% 2.6% 5.31% 4.92% -0.39%
Payroll
Unemployment benefits
LOAS/RMV
OCC
6.61% -0.01%
20.91% 0.49%
4.32% -0.21%
16.60% 0.70%
9.80% 0.62%
-0.07%
0.06%
0.20%
0.43%
Memo:
Total Revenues
Transfers
Primary expenditures
20.2% 21.7% 21.5% 22.7% 23.9% 23.6% 25.37% 26.25% 0.88%
3.0% 3.5% 3.7% 3.8% 4.2% 4.0% 4.52% 4.32% -0.21%
16.5% 16.0% 15.9% 17.0% 17.4% 17.1% 15.54% 17.02% 1.48%
54
Fiscal Result
Jan-Apr
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
2003* 2004* change
Nominal deficit
7.5%
4.0%
1.7%
-2.2%
Primary deficit
0.01% -3.19% -3.46% -3.64% -3.89% -4.37% -7.0% -6.4%
0.6%
5.8%
3.6% 3.6%
4.6%
5.2%
Central Government
-0.5%
-2.3%
-1.9%
-1.8%
-2.4%
-2.6%
-5.4%
-5.0%
0.4%
Subnational governments
0.2%
-0.2%
-0.5%
-0.9%
-0.8%
-0.9%
-1.3%
-1.3%
0.0%
States
0.3%
-0.2%
-0.4%
-0.6%
-0.6%
-0.8%
-1.2%
-1.2%
0.0%
Municipalities
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.3%
-0.2%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
0.0%
0.4%
-0.6%
-1.1%
-0.9%
-0.7%
-0.9%
-0.3%
-0.1%
0.3%
Federal
0.2%
-0.7%
-0.9%
-0.6%
-0.5%
-0.6%
-0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
Local
0.1%
0.0%
-0.1%
-0.3%
-0.3%
-0.3%
-0.3%
-0.3%
0.0%
Nominal Interest on Debt 7.5%
9.0%
7.1% 7.2%
8.5%
9.6%
Public companies
11.0% 8.1%
-2.9%
55
Public Sector Primary Surplus
5
% of GDP
4
3
2
1
0
-1
Dec
98
Aug
99
Apr
00
Dec
00
Aug
01
Federal Government and Bacen
State-Owned Enterprises
Apr
02
Dec
02
Aug
03
Apr
04
Sub-national Governments
Consolidated Public Sector
56
Debt-to-GDP Ratio
63
% do PIB
54
45
Jan
02
May
02
Sep
02
Jan
03
May
03
Set
03
Apr
04
Apr 04
56.6%
36
27
Jan
91
Apr
92
Jul
93
Oct
94
Jan
96
Apr
97
Jul
98
Oct
99
Jan
01
Apr
02
Jul
03
57
Debt Dynamics
1999
Net debt increase
7.4%
1. Primary surplus
-3.0%
2. Pure interest on the debt
8.4%
3. Depreciation on domestic debt 3.8%
4. Depreciation on foreign debt
4.2%
5. Skeletons
0.0%
6. Privatization proceeds
-0.9%
7. Effect of GDP growth
-5.2%
Memo:
Debt dynamics (1+2+7)
Currency (3+4)
Net "skeletons" (5-6)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
-0.2% 3.2% 2.8% 3.2% -2.1%
-3.3% -3.5% -3.3% -4.3% -2.0%
6.8% 6.9% 7.2% 9.3% 2.5%
0.8% 1.5% 4.8% -1.5% 0.1%
0.8% 1.5% 4.4% -1.6% 0.2%
0.8% 1.5% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0%
-1.8% -0.1% -0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
-4.3% -4.6% -11.0% 1.2% -2.9%
0.2% -0.8% -1.2%
8.0% 1.6% 3.0%
-0.9% -1.0% 1.4%
-7.1% 6.3% -2.4%
9.3% -3.1% 0.3%
0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
58
FX-Linked Debt Rollover Rate
100
90
80
%
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
03 03 03 03 03 03 03 03 03 03 03 03 04 04 04 04 04
59
USD Debt - % of debt
65
56
55
Total USD-linked debt vs total net debt
%
45
35
31
25
Domestic USD-linked debt vs. domestic debt
15
16
5
Jan
97
Mar
98
May
99
Jul
00
Sep
01
Nov
02
Apr
04
60
USD Linked Public Debt
136.0
140
US$ billion
120
100
Apr/04
97.3
80
60
40
Jan
97
Sep
98
May
00
Jan
02
Sep
03
61
V. Strengthening Resistance to Shocks
62
Net International Reserves
35
US$ billion
30
Net Reserves
25
20
15
Adjusted Net Reserves
10
Jan
99
Jan
00
Jan
01
Jan
02
Jan
03
Jan
04
63
External Debt Ratios
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03 04*
Interest payments/exports (%)
26.7 27.2 31.0 36.4 31.0 30.3 25.3 21.0 19.9
Net external debt/exports
2.0
Net external debt/GDP (%)
12.1 15.2 20.9 32.5 28.4 31.9 35.9 30.6 26.0
*2004: BCB estimate
2.3
3.2
3.6
3.1
2.8
2.7
2.1
1.8
64
Interest Payments/Exports Ratio
38
34
%
30
26
22
18
1996
1997
*2004: BCB estimate
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004*
65
Net External Debt/Exports Ratio
4.0
3.5
%
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1996
1997
*2004: BCB estimate
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004*
66
Net External Debt/GDP Ratio
40
35
%
30
25
20
15
10
1996
1997
*2004: BCB estimate
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004*
67
Impact of a 1% FX change on
Debt/GDP ratio
0,35
0,33
0,31
%
0,29
0,27
0,25
0,23
0,21
0,19
0,17
Jan
00
Sep
00
May
01
Jan
02
Sep
02
May
03
Apr
04
68
Brazil:
Recent Economic Developments
Afonso Bevilaqua / Alexandre Schwartsman
June 2004
69