Transcript xxx

PGE Renewable Energy Co.
Renewable Energy and System Services
Business Area Overview
Warsaw, 20 April 2009
Why PGE Renewable Energy Co. ?
The Company's mission is to provide system services that guarantee
security of the national transmission system, as well as to ensure the
highest quality electrical energy, generated by environment friendly
technologies, using both renewable energy sources and gas.
PGE Renewable Energy Co. owns:
Hydro:
Żarnowiec: 716 MW
Żar:500 MW
Solina: 200MW
Dychów: 90 MW
19 small hydro power plants
Wind:
Kamieńsk: 30 MW
Other reneweables:
Biogas Power Plant ( test plant)
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Dychów: 90 MW
3
Żarnowiec: 716 MW
4
Żarnowiec: 716 MW
5
Żar:500 MW
6
ZEW Solina-Myczkowce: 208,3 MW
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Solina: 200MW
8
Kamieńsk: 30 MW
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Portfolio of PGE’s existing generation
assets
Generation assets portfolio of PGE,
by installed capacity (GW)
0,7%
0,2%
Thermal (hard coal)
12,1%
30,4%
3,4%
Thermal (lignite)
Thermal (gas)
83,6%
Water (pumped storage)
Water (other)
53,2%
PGE 100% = 12,3 GW
ESP 13% = 1,6 GW
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Wind
PGE – main assets
El. Żarnowiec
716 MWe
El. Szczecin
88 MWe
220 MWt
El.
Pomorzany
134 MWe
323 MWt
El. Dolna
Odra
1 772 MWe
117 MWt
El. Wodna
Raduszec Stary
El. W. Gubin
El. W. Zasieki
El. W. Przysieka
El. W. Żarki Wielkie
El. W. Zielisko
El. W. Bukówka
El. W. Sobolice
Distribution
ZEB
2,9 TWh
EC
Gorzów
97,5 MWe
399 MWt
ZEC
Bydgoszcz
262 MWe
857 MWt
El. W. Gorzupia I i II
El. W. Grajówka
El. W. Żagań I i II
El. W. Małomice
El. W. Szprotawa
El. W. Kliczków
ZEŁ-T
4,3 TWh
.
KWB
Bełchatów
El.
Bełchatów
4 440 MWe
El. Wiatrowa
Kamieńśk 30 Mwe 376 MWt
El. Opole
1492 MWe
102,5 MWt
KWB Turów
Lignite power plants/mines
El. W. Januszkowice
Gas CHPs
ZEW-T
5,2 TWh
ŁZE
2,8 TWh
El. Wodna
Dychów
90 MWe
El. Turów
2088 MWe
295 MWt
Hard coal power plants/CHPs
El. Wodna
Dębe 20 MW
Lubzel
3,3 TWh
ZEORK
4,4 TWh
Ciepłownia Kielce
286 MWt
RZE
3,8 TWh
El. W.
Krępna
zakłady energetyczne
Elektrownie i elektrociepłownie węgla kamiennego
Hydro
Elektrownie węgla brunatnego
Elektrownie i elektrociepłownie gazowe
Elektrownie wodne, w tym szczytowo-pompowe
Wind
Elektrownie wiatrowe
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El. Wodna Porąbka
El. Wodna Tresna
El. Porąbka-Żar
500 MWe
El. Wodna
Myczkowce
EC Lublin
246,5 MWe
592 MWt
ZKE
1,9 TWh
EC
Rzeszów
102 MWe
332 MWt
El. Solina
200 MWe
Integration
Implementation of managerial structure granting:
- Unifaction of targets within PGE
- Centralisation of specific activities within PGE
- Specialisation within PGE
Assets arrangement within PGE group:
- Shifting RES assets from PGE group to PGE EO
Capital assets arrangemenet within PGE EO group:
- Internal rearrangement within PGE EO: production
assets contrentration in PGE EO and spinning off
exploatation operators
PGE trade mark promotion
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Organisational structure (functional)
PGE
Managing
companies
Operational
units
Mining and
generation
(BOT GiE)
Wholesale
(PSE-Electra)
KWBB
KWBT
Retail
ZEŁT
ŁZE
ZEB
Opole power plant
RZE
Bełchatów power plant
ZEWT
Turów power plant
ZEORK
ZEDO power plant
EC Gorzów
LUBZEL
ZKE
Distribution
OSD ZEŁT
OSD ŁZE
OSD ZEB
OSD RZE
OSD ZEWT
OSD ZEORK
Renewables
(PGE EO)
Hydro:
Hydro
Żarnowiec: 716 MW
Żar:500 MW
Wind
Solina: 200MW
OSD LUBZEL
OSD ZKE
Dychów: 90 MW
EC Lublin
Dębe: 20 MW
EC Rzeszów
Wind
ZEC Bydgoszcz
Kamieńsk: 30 MW
Other
Other reneweables:
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Biogas Power Plant
( test plant)
Role of business segments
Mining and
generation
 Building of
integrated Group
 Lowering
generation cost
 Increasing the
availability of the
generating units
 Minimising
investment with the
lowest ROR
 Adhering to the
environmental
regulations
 Increasing
revenues from
other activities,
including heat
generation and
distribution
Wholesale
 Maximising the
sales margin
 Minimising the
costs of balancing
market of the entire
Group
 Maximising the
margin from sales
on foreign markets
 Developing trading
 Minimising the
costs and risk of
fuel purchase
 Minimising the
trading costs
Retail
 Maximising the
electricity sales
margin
 Increasing the
market share in
retail sales
 Developing and
maximising the
margin from
sales of other
products
 Minimising own
sales costs
Distribution
 Minimising
distribution costs
 Minimising
investment with the
lowest ROR
 Increasing the
revenues from
services to the
existing customers
 Minimising the time
Renewable energy
• Production capacity
enhancement on
renewable energy sources
• Development of the Center
of the Competence
of new connections
 Improving the
quality of delivery
and technical
services to the
clients
• Increasing the green
certificates production
• Lowering generation cost
• Increasing the availability
of generating units
• Minimising investments
with the lowest ROR
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Environmental regulations
Required energy mix sold to the end-consumers in Poland, %
71,3%
67,8%
65,2%
64,1%
62,9%
7,0%
2,7%
8,7%
2,9%
10,4%
3,1%
10,4%
3,3%
10,4%
3,5%
16,5%
19,0%
20,6%
21,3%
22,2%
23,2%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
77,6%
5,1%
0,8%
Electricity from other sources
Electricity from RES
Electricity form highly efficient gas cogeneration
Electricity from highly efficient cogeneration other than gas
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Comparison of forecasts of renewable
energy market share in 2020
Eleboration/ Forecast for 2020
Share in energy
production
Ministry of Environment, Strategy of Renewable Energy
Development, 2000
16,8%
EC BREC, ESD, Utilization of SAFIRE programm for
elaboration of development of renewable energy sources
in Poland up to 2020, 2001
9,8 – 13,4%
ARE S.A., Ecological scenario of development of national
energy sector, 2002
6,6 – 16,2%
Fraunhofer ISI, Analysis of the renewable energy’s
evolution up to 2020, 2003
7,2 – 22,2%
Ministry of Economy, Energy Policy of Poland untill 2030,
2007
10,8%
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PGE and sources of renewable energy
PGE aspirations by 2012 regarding
renewable energy generation
Reaching 30-45% share
in domestic market of renewable energy
Areas of renewable energy development
within the PGE Group
Hydro-energy
 Large HPPs on Wisla and Odra
 Small HPPs
HPP Porąbka-Żar
Wind farms
 On-shore wind farms
 Off-shore wind farms
Biomass
 Co-combustion/ combustion
 Dispersed energy
PGE investment in renewable energy in
2008-2012: PLN 4-8 bn
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Wind farm Kamieńsk
PGE’s renewables aspirations
PGE’s aspiration is to increase its production from renewable sources up to tenfold until 2012.
PGE’s aspirations concerning
renewable energy production (TWh)
Potential options to increase
PGE’s market share in renewables
6,1
Market leader aspiration
To obtain a market share in
renewables equal to PGE’s
market share in generation
(45% market share)
• Large hydro power plants
on Vistula and/or Odra
5,2
• Small hydro power plants
4,3
• Wind farms
3,4
4,1
1,8
0,6
1,2
2007
2008
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• Biomass co-firing
Risk minimazing aspiration
To secure Renewables
Obligation Certificates supply
for PGE’s sales company
(30% market share)
0,6
2006
• Biomass / biogas
2,9
2,3
1,5
2009
2010
• Wind farms on-shore
• Wind farms off-shore
3,5
2,4
• Waterpower engineering
2011
2012
• Distributed biomass /
biogas generation
• Geothermics
Wind
Potential capacity: 445 PJ
• Including onshore 377 and offshore 67
Actual utilisation:
• Onshore just 0,22%
• Huge number of projets under evaluation (26GW)
Forecast:
• Till 2012 only 10% of projets under evaluation will
be executed
• Till 2020 30% of onshore potential and 10% of
offshore potential will be utilized
• Offshore development after 2015 depending on
strategical decisions (government, grid operators, big
power producers groups)
• After 2015 new development possibilities should
emerge (new generation of wind turbines – 5MW, and
increasing connection to the grid possibilities
(transeuropean transfer lines)
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Wind
Risks
• Environmental – restrictions due to
protected areas (Natura 2000), not fully
clear policy concerning possibilty of
investing in this areas
• Restrictions in optimal wind areas due
to problems with grid connection
• Risk of ability of power absorbtion of
national electroenergetic system (above
3 – GW installed power),
• Changes in RES supporting system
(after 2020 national goals achived)
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ESP Wind Projects in Poland
1. Kamieńsk (30MW)
3
4
2. Wola Rafałowska (8MW)
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3. Wojciechowo – 28MW
9
5
4. Miłogoszcz - Etap I/II/III (do 100MW)
8
7
5. Resko - Etap I/II (10/80MW)
6. Gniewino 55,2 MW; Strefa Żarnowca
(Zbiornik Górny 48 MW, Prusiewo
30 MW, Osieki 42 MW)
1
7. Banie - Etap I/II 90 MW
2
8. Łęczyca 24 MW
9. Polanów - Etap I/II (do 100MW)
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National grid connection status
Wind projets location
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PGE EO share in Wind Projects in Poland
EW Kamieńsk consists actually 15%
on wind generated installed power.
Actually in PGE EO there are 20
projets at different stage of execution
and at total planned instaleld power ca
900 MW. It consist app. 10% projects
under execution in Poland.
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Water
Potential capacity: 18PJ (5TWh/year)
•Entire potential is estimated to be at the level of 8,5 TWh but due to actual environmental restrictions and
economical situation the project of HPP on Wisla River seems to be questionable,
Actual utilisation: 41%
Forecast:
•According to Hydro Power Plants Asociation development will base on small HPP (theoretically up to
10MW but in practice app. 1MW) with the installed power increase by 10MW/year.
•Up to 2020 can be utilised up to 62% of potential capacity (Average in EU 67%).
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Water
Risks:
•Location – Implementation of NATURA 2000 and other restrictions (EU water
directive) can limit avaliability of locations of small hydro power plants (below
10MW)
•Increase of costs of investments due to lack of suitable locations.
•Small HPP projets are executed mainly by small inwestors – as they are not
reciving support from the government and the costs are high and execution
time is extending the potential can not be fully utilized.
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Biomass
Potential: 600 PJ
•Including dry solid waste 166, biogas (wet
waste) 123, wood 24, energetic plants 287
(celulosis, oil etc)
Actual utilisation:
•Utilised (fully ?) dry solid waste and wood
•Rarely utilised biogas, agricultural not at all
•No energetic plants plantations
Forecast:
•Dry solid waste nearly fully utilised – no space
for development
•Development of biogas utilisation
- first
wastebased after 2015 farming
•Energetic plants plantations development – first
as a fuel after 2015 farming biogas
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Biomass
Risks:
•Plantations – agricultural production intensification – competition to food
production
•Envirnmental risks – unknown consequences of lasting big surface
plantations
•Export of bio-fuels (solid and liquid) – decreasing possibilities of
acheiving national targets.
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Effectivness of different projets in RES
area
Big HPP
Wind PP
Bio-fuel
cogeneration
plant
Installed power
(electrical) [MW]
100
38
10
1,8
12,7
Installed power (heat)
[MW]
-
-
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-
-
Inwestment cost
(tho. PLN)
850 000
216 600
80 000
29 000
14 000
Unit investment cost
(tho. PLN/MWe)
8 500
5 700
8 000
16 100
1 100
Unit investment cost
(tys. PLN/MWh)
2 174
2 617
1 533
2 712
220
Small HPP
Biomass cofiring
Electrical energy price = 118+240=358 PLN/MWh
IRR,NPV for the project:
NPV(tho.PLN) s=5,24%
330 053
42 225
102 746
4 289
114 019
IRR(%)
9,00%
7,53%
16,88%
6,75%
60,86%
-2 869
55 718
IRR,NPV for own capital:
NPV(tho.PLN) s=12,0%
27 645
-9 174
40 266
IRR(%)
13,20%
10,59%
27,85%
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9,03%
125,47%
Investement plans
Category of investment plans:
• Development investments of electricity
generation from renewable sources
• Modernization
• Conceptual works and Development Fund
• Other investments
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Development investments
Development investments in the area of RES include:
A.1.
Wind projects
Wind farms construction
A.2.
Bioenergetics
Construction of dispersed, local sources of
electrical energy and heat based on technology of
biomass fermentation
A.3.
Hydropower
Construction of new SHPP
Only this investment category is increasing and defining the total
investments planned
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Investment plans - RES
Technology
Wind PP
Installed power
increase
MW
870
Production
increase TWh
1,5 – 2,1
Bio energy
50
0,3
HPP
10
0,05
930
1,9 – 2,4
Total:
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Investment plans RES - outlays
Investment outlays for Renewable Energy Sources are estimated at the
level of 3,8 bln PLN – ( 1 bln Euro)
4,0
3,0
[mld PLN]
Financing sources:
• own capitals
• PGE capitals
• EU funds
• Commercial credits
• other
RES investment outlays
2,0
1,0
0,0
2008
2009
2010
Year
32
2011
2012
PGE Renewable Energy Co.
Thank you for attention
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