Transcript PowerPoint-presentatie

Aspects of infrastructure project assessment in
the Netherlands
And the use of international CBA standards
Dutch Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management
Presentation outline
•
Why focus on economic evaluation?
•
Dutch framework for infrastructure investment
evaluation: OEI and cost benefit analysis
•
Bridging the gap between guideline and project practice:
Support desk for Economic Evaluation
•
HEATCO international guidelines
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How to evaluate economic effects of
roads/infrastructure in general?
• Cost benefit analysis most accepted or even obligatory tool for
funds
• Regional development (window 8) is usually measured in
economic units (monetary)
• Regional development is an indirect impact of infrastructure
development
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1. Dutch framework for infrastructure
evaluation
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OEI???
•
OEI = Overview Effects Infrastructure
•
Abbreviation for: Research Project on Economic Effects of
Infrastructure
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Initiative of Ministries of Transport and Ministry of
Economic Affairs
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OEI history
• 1990’s: difficulties with evaluation of large infrastructure
projects
• 1998: Development of Guideline
• 2002: Evaluation of Guideline
• 2003: Action programme Guideline for implementation of
improvements
• 2004: Additions to the Guideline
• 2005: ‘OEI bij MIT’ simplified guideline for smaller projects
(first phase towards decision)
• 2008: ‘OEI bij MIT’ simplified guideline for smaller projects
(second phase towards decision)
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Why was OEI developed ?
• Political choices based on limited CBA
• Limited consensus about contents of integral
assessments
• No explicit procedural arrangements
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Main elements of OEI
• Survey of Effects:
• definition effects/methods
• broad list of all effects
• discussion indirect effects
• Nine structured steps of CBA
• Procedural structure:
• applied to all national infrastructure
projects
• 2-stage Survey of Effects
• optimising neutrality of information
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OEI segmentation of effects
Welfare
National
Foreign
countries
estimate
Priced
Non-priced
Redistribution/
Redistribution/
Efficiency
Efficiency
Operating profits
Uninsured risks
Causal estimate
Direct effects
Operators
Journey time
profits
Users
Cheaper
transport
Journey time
profits, safety
Third
parties
Indirect
effects
Effects on other
modes
Strategic effects
Air pollution,
noise
Air pollution
Congestion
Regional
inequality
Congestion
Exchange rate
impact
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OEI based on CBA: nine steps
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
Problem analysis: what do we want to solve
Project definition: design and alternatives, base case
Identifying project effects
Forecast relevant exogenous developments
Estimate and value project effects
Estimate investment and development costs
Producing a cost-benefit set-up
Alternatives and risk analysis
Additional tasks (PPP, ex post evaluation)
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Procedural structure
start:
definition
of project
alternatives
Quick
Scan
Survey of
Effectsselection of
alternatives
phase 1
exploration
Survey of Effects
second opinion
environmental
survey
phase 2
study
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phase 3
realisation
CBA calculation results with OEI
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Guideline for
smaller projects: ‘OEI bij MIT’
Accessibility
–Reliability/ efficiency
–Traffic numbers (persons
and freight)
–Travel time
Safety
–Traffic safety
–External safety
Quality environment
–Air quality
–Noise
–Nature
Costs
–Investment
–Maintenance
–Exploitation
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Other proposed guidelines
• ‘OEI bij MIT’ for the study phase: more detail
• OEI for water management projects
• Application of OEI for maintenance decisions
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2. Bridging the gap between
guidelines and individual projects
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Steunpunt Economische Evaluatie (SEE)
• SEE: Support desk for Economic Evaluation
• Helps with questions about economic evaluation of
infrastructure
• Objective:
1. Support for small questions about economic
evaluation (max. 8 hours)
2. Information exchange, also on international level
• WWW.rws.nl/SEE
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3. International standards: HEATCO
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Scope of HEATCO
• EU (DG TREN) project on guidelines for cost benefit analysis
• Objective: consistent standards and use of it throughout EU
countries, and providing a common basis for transnational
projects
• http://heatco.ier.uni-stuttgart.de/
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11 main recommendations (1)
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Decision criteria: use of NPV, etc.
Treatment of non-monetised impacts (presentation in
qualitative terms
Project appraisal evaluation period (40 years for TEN-T
projects)
Treatment of future risk and uncertainty (sensitivity analysis)
Discounting (use common rate of 3%)
Intra-generational equity issues (table of losers and winners)
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11 main recommendations (2)
7.
Non-market valuation techniques (willingness to pay,
standard values)
8. Value transfer method (copy-paste)
9. Treatment of indirect effects (if they are significant, use a
model to calculate them)
10. Marginal cost of public funds (no shadow price for public
funds)
11. Producer surplus (f.I. Transport pricing, to be calculated)
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