Transcript Slide 1

Monson High School Dropout
Data Analysis
Massachusetts School Counselor Association
April 12, 2010
Presented by :
Karen Esempio, School Counseling Intern
Robert Bardwell, Guidance Director
Elizabeth Reed, School Counselor
National Statistics on Dropouts

In 2006 the national graduation rate was 74%, substantially below NCLB goals of 90%
(Balfanz & West 2009).

On average, students from low-income families are at increased risk of not completing
school (10% for low-income; 5.2% middle-income; 1.6% high income) (NCES, 2002).

On average, students with disabilities are at greatest risk of dropping out of school (in
2000 only 57% of youth with disabilities graduated with regular diplomas) (U.S.
Department of Education, 2001).

The dropout rate for students with emotional/behavioral disabilities is approximately
twice that of general education students ( Wagner, 1995).

Students with learning disabilities (32%) and students with emotional/behavioral
disabilities (50%) drop out at the highest rates of youth with disabilities (Wagner, 1995).
Costs Associated with Dropping Out
 Dropping out is linked to substantially lower lifetime earning power,
with a spiraling effect on the U.S. economy in addition to the dropouts
themselves (Balfanz and West 2009; Swanson 2009).
 Increasing the high school graduation rate by 1% would reduce costs in
the criminal justice system by 1.4 billion a year (American Youth Policy
Forum, 2006).

Arrest rates of youth with disabilities who dropped out were
significantly higher than those who graduated

80% of individuals in prison do not have a high school diploma
Salary Comparisons Grad vs. Non-Grad
www.postsecondary.org
50,000
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
Less than High
School (30.3K)
High School Diploma
(39K)
Associates Degree
(48.1K)
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Earnings
2007
Unemployment Comparisons Grad vs. Non Grad
www.postsecondary.org
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Unemployment
rate 2008
Less than High
School (9.0)
High School
Diploma (5.7)
Associates Degree
(3.7)
Global Comparison
 The United States ranks 17th in high school
graduation rates and 14th in college graduation rates
among developed nations (Organization for Economic CoOperation and Development, 2006).
 Concurrently 90% of the fastest growing jobs will
require some post-secondary education (Alliance for
Excellent Education, 2007).
State vs. Monson Drop-Out Rates (MASS DOE)
School Year
Monson % of
Dropouts
State % of
Dropouts
Number of
Students for
Monson
2003-04
4.4
3.7
17
2004-2005
4.0
3.8
16
2005-2006
1.2
3.3
13
2006-2007
4.2
3.8
16
2007-2008
.5
3.4
2
Overview of Data Population
 26 Dropout Students

Academic Years 2005/06
through 2008/09

Ranging 4 to 10 students per
year
 26 Comparison Students

Academic Years 2005/06
through 2008-09

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Randomly selected from
graduating class lists
Ranging 6-8 per year
Who is Most Likely to Drop Out?
Key indicators:
 Poor grades in core subjects; lack of credits
 Low attendance
 Failure to be promoted to the next grade
 Disengagement in classroom, including behavioral
problems
 Students with Learning and/or EmotionalBehavioral disabilities
Failing/Poor Grades
(2 or more F’s or D’s)
Students with Discipline Records
IEP or 504 Status
Mental Illness Status
Dropout Students & Graduating Students
Receiving W or NI on MCAS
Overall Rates of Absenteeism for Dropout Students
Grade
Absences (6 or more) out of
number of students
Percentage
4th
7/19
37%
5th
9/19
47%
6th
10/19
52%
7th
15/21
71%
8th
18/21
86%
9th
17/21
81%
Grade Nine Absenteeism
(6 or more absences)
Students Retained at Least One Year in High
School
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
Dropout Students
40%
Graduating Students
30%
20%
10%
0%
Male
Female
Total
Single-Parent Families
60%
 15 of the dropout
50%
40%
30%
Dropout students
Graduating Students
20%
10%
0%
Single
Parent
Families
students lived in
single-parent
households
 6 of the graduating
students lived in
single-parent
households
Grade Students Drop Out In
Grade
Number of Students
Percentage of
Dropouts
9th Grade
3
11.5%
10th Grade
11
42%
11th Grade
10
38.5%
12th Grade
2
8%
Reasons for Dropping Out
 Push effects:

Situations or experiences within the school environment that
aggravate feelings of alienation and failure and lead to dropping out
Not getting along with teachers
 Suspension & expulsion
 Low grades
 Retention
 Irrelevant curriculum

*Students most often cite push factors as reasons for dropping out of
school (Kortering & Braziel, 1999).
Reasons for Dropping Out
 Pull effects:
 Include factors that are external to the school environment
that weaken and distract from the importance of completing
school
Financial responsibilities
 Caretaking responsibilities
 Employment
 Social group
 Pregnancy

Disengagement Over Time
Dropping out is “more of a process not an event”
(Rumberger & Lim, 2008)
 Most researchers believe that dropout is not an
instantaneous event, but rather a long process of
disengagement over time involving multiple factors.
 Engagement involves active participation in learning
and school work as well as in the social life of school.
Reasons for Staying in School
 Supportive nurturing home environment
 Positive School Climate
 Involvement with committed and concerned educators &
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other adults
Development of perseverance and optimism
Improved attitude toward school
Motivation to obtain diploma
Positive respectful relationship between staff and students
Relevance of curriculum
Fair discipline policies
Early Identification - Retention
 Retention in Elementary and Middle grades is
closely associated with eventual dropout:
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64% of students who repeat a grade in elementary school &
63% of students held back in middle school
fail to leave school with a diploma
(Alexander, et. al., 1997)
Early Identification - 6th & 8th Grade
In one study, 50% of 6th
graders who met the
following three criteria
eventually left school:
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Attend school less than
80% of the time
Receive a low final grade
from their teachers in
behavior
Fail either math or
English
Eighth-graders who miss
five weeks of school or
fail math or English have
at least a 75% chance of
dropping out (Neild & Balfanz,
2006)
.
Retention and Failure in Ninth Grade
 Research has shown that students with prior
behavior problems are more likely to fail during
transition years and eventually drop out.
 Receiving more than one F in core academic subjects
in 9th grade, together with failing to be promoted to
10th grade, is 85% successful in determining who will
not graduate on time.
(Balfanz & Herzog, 2005)
Early Warning System
 “Identifying students at risk of dropping out by
using an early warning system is the only first step
in addressing the dropout challenge” (Heppen &
Theriault, 2008).
 National High School Center provides an online
Early Warning System Tool
(www.betterhighschools.org).
Building an Early Warning System
 Track attendance, grades, promotion status, and engagement
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indicators (behavior grades) as early as 4th grade and throughout
middle school
Track ninth grade students who miss 10 or more days of school in the
first 30 days
Monitor first quarter freshman grades (failures) in core academic
subjects (grades become a better predictor than attendance)
Monitor end-of -year grades (grades are better predictors than test
scores)
Track students who will be retained, being held back trumps all
dropout indicators
Pay special attention during transition years
Students Identified as At-Risk
 Provide intervention strategies for students most at-
risk with strategies tailored to meet the needs of the
individual (helping pass a specific class)
 Monitor at risk students to gauge the impact of
interventions (is what your doing enough?)
 Monitor students at less critical level of risk who may
need special attention (teacher monitoring)
 Identify and address school-wide areas of concern
(transitions, suspension policies, climate)
Evidence-Based Practice
 Interventions that may be appropriate for Monson
School District

Career Academies – Employs a combination of career and
academic training for students considered at risk.

Check & Connect – Promotes student engagement via a
monitor/mentor who maintains regular contact with the
student, family, and teachers.
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Coca Cola Valued Youth Program – Helps to build the selfesteem and self-concept of at-risk youth by giving them the
responsibility of being tutors to younger children.
Evidence-Based Practice
 Sample Interventions with Evidence of Effectiveness
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Achievement for Latinos through Academic Success* (ALAS) - A
collaborative approach (student, family, school & community)
promoting problem-solving; counseling; attendance monitoring;
increased communication.
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Ninth-Grade Dropout Prevention Program (NGP) – Utilizes
strategies such as an orientation program, peer tutoring, small class
size and builds relationships between home and school.
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Project COFFEE – Offers individualized instruction through an
alternative occupational education program. Addresses the
academic, social, emotional, and occupational needs of students at
high risk for dropout.
What is Monson Doing?
 We used the research and data to identify at-risk
students:
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Grade 9 records (for current 10th graders)
Retention/Credits
Grades
Absences
Discipline records
IEP or 504 status
Reduced or Free-lunch
What is Monson Doing?
 Without a budget – we identified strategies from
evidence-based programs that we could implement
in a group setting:
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Relationship building (check and connect)
Team building (trust in us and each other)
Self-awareness: reflection on goals (why is graduating
important?)
Value in the school community through community service (I
am valued and can make positive contributions)
Career awareness (goals)
Social awareness (how to give and gain respect)
What is Monson Doing?
 11 – week group program – rotated blocks every Wednesday
 Weeks ½- Team building with Springfield College
 Week 3 Drug & alcohol awareness speaker & establishing
group norms and rules
 Week 4 – Business plan – could we develop a project to raise
money?
 Week 5 Building relevance to school and academic workrevisit rules – and team building.
 Week 6 Launch community service program-Principal buy-in
and outdoor work
 Week 7 Community service: hands-on building project
 Week 8 Stress Management with School Social Worker
 Week 9 Community Service
 Week 10 - Field Trip – Universal Technical Institute
 Week 11 - Closure – End with Springfield College return
Is it Working So Far?
 We started with 8 Members
 1 was expelled; 1 dropped out of school; 1 left the group
 Data for the 5 remaining members
4/5 have improved attendance
 4/5 have improved discipline records* most significant
 1/5 have improved grades* (1/2 semester to go)

Is it Working So Far?
 Attendance:
 Semester 1 total for group = 14 absences
 Semester 2 total for group = 6 absences

57.2% improvement
 Conduct:
 Semester 1 total for group = 20 incidents
 Semester 2 total for group = 5 incidents

75% improvement
Is it Working So Far?
 Grades:
 1 out of 5 have improved grades (passed all classes)
 4 out of 5 remain stagnant – no significant statistical difference
for passing or failing classes
What do the Students Think?
 Areas for improvement:
 More consistent groups times
 Talking about grades and academics earlier and more/tutoring
 More outdoor and hands-on project time
 Making sure all members of the group are 100% committed
 What went well:
 Being able to talk without being judged
 Community service; especially outdoor activities
 Activities and games; time with male influence
 Relating group to school community
Evidence-Based Resource Guides
National Dropout Prevention Center at Clemson University and
Communities in Schools, Inc.
www.dropoutprevention.org
National Center on Secondary Education and Transition
www.ncset.org
National High School Center
www.betterhighschools.org
U.S. Department of Education; What Works Clearinghouse
www.whatworks.ed.gov