Transcript Democratic Peace Theory

Democratic Peace Theory
Introduction
The Cold War has ended, and we now have a chance
to forge a democratic peace, an enduring peace
built on shared values—democracy and political
and economic freedom. The strength of these
values in Russia and the other new independent
states will be the surest foundation for peace—and
the strongest guarantee of our national security—
for decades to come.
Secretary of State James Baker, February 5, 1992
Democratic Peace
Empirical Finding: No two democracies have
ever fought an interstate war against each
other.
This is called the democratic peace.
What is a democracy?
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Constitutional government
Representative government
Separation of powers
Judicial/legal rights
Participation?
History of the Democratic Peace
Immanuel Kant, Perpetual Peace (1795)
Democracies will not fight each other because
the citizenry must consent, and they do not
want to pay the costs of war (lives,
infrastructure, etc.).
Kant’s Conditions for Perpetual Peace
• The Civil Constitution of Every State shall
be Republican.
• The Right of Nations Shall be based on a
Federation of Free States.
Kant rejects the idea of a world government.
• Cosmopolitan Rights shall be limited to
Conditions of Universal Hospitality.
Theories of the democratic peace
1) Structural explanation
• Elections (leaders can be replaced if they
lose wars)
• Individual freedoms magnifies the
importance of public opinion and elections
• Separation of power
Theories of the democratic peace
2) Normative explanation
• In their foreign relations, nations will try to follow
the same norms of conflict that characterize their
domestic political processes.
• They expect decision makers in other nations to do
the same.
• When democracies face each other, they expect
the other side to resolve disputes through
compromise and nonviolence.
• Example: third party dispute settlement
Theories of the democratic peace
3) Democracies are satisfied states
(power transition theory)
• They are less likely to fight about territory,
especially if they are well established
democracies.
• They have strong economic ties (liberal
peace).
Levels of analysis
• Monadic: Are democracies more
peaceful overall in their relations with
other states?
• Dyadic: Are democracies more peaceful
in their relations with democracies as
opposed to non-democracies?
• Systemic: Is a world filled with more
democratic states more peaceful?
Empirical Analysis of the
Democratic Peace
Monadic Findings
The findings are mixed with some studies
finding no real difference in the war
proneness of democracies relative to
non-democracies (e.g. Chan, Weede),
while others find democracies are more
pacific overall (e.g. Rummel, Benoit,
Maoz)
Empirical Analysis of the
Democratic Peace
Dyadic Findings
These findings are relatively clear:
• No two democracies have fought a war
against each other (e.g. Babst)
• Democracies are much less likely to
fight militarized disputes against each
other (e.g. Maoz and Russett)
Empirical Analysis of the
Democratic Peace
Systemic Findings
• My own work demonstrates that the
proportion of democratic states is growing
over time, and
• As this proportion increases, war becomes
less likely in the system
• The pacific effect of democracy on war is
getting stronger over time
• Others find an inverted U (Gleditsch & Hegre)
Other Empirical Findings
• Militarized disputes between democratic
states involve very few fatalities and are
much less likely to escalate than disputes in
mixed or autocratic dyads.
• Birds of a feather flock together: democracies
form alliances with other democracies
(Siverson & Emmons)
• Credible commitments: democracies are more
likely to comply with international agreements
• Democracies have won 88% of the wars they
have fought (Lake)
• Fully established democracies have the lowest
chance for civil war (Hegre et al)
Criticisms of the democratic peace
• Democracies are peaceful due to shared
interests during the Cold War (Farber and
Gowa)
• Democratizing states are more war-prone
than established autocratic states (Mansfield
and Snyder)
• War and democracy are rare, so it not
surprising that democracies have not fought
each other (Spiro)
Questions
• Is democracy compatible with Islam?
• Does war promote democracy or inhibit
it?
• Is the liberal peace really a commercial
peace?