Transcript Presentation to Subsea Tie Backs Forum

energy data analysts
Subsea Tieback Forum
Subsea trends, challenges, and technology requirements
Howard Wright – Senior Analyst
Forward Looking Disclaimer
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The information contained in this document is believed to be accurate, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is
made by Infield Systems Limited as to the completeness, accuracy or fairness of any information contained in it, and we do not
accept any responsibility in relation to such information whether fact, opinion or conclusion that the reader may draw. The views
expressed are those of the individual contributors and do not represent those of the publishers.
Some of the statements contained in this document are forward-looking statements. Forward looking statements include but are
not limited to, statements concerning estimates of recoverable hydrocarbons, expected hydrocarbon prices, expected costs,
numbers of development units, statements relating to the continued advancement of the industry’s projects and other
statements which are not historical facts. When used in this document, and in other published information of the Company, the
words such as "could," "estimate," "expect," "intend," "may," "potential," "should," and similar expressions are forward-looking
statements. Although the Company believes that its expectations reflected in the forward-looking statements are reasonable,
such statements involve risk and uncertainties and no assurance can be given that actual results will be consistent with these
forward-looking statements. Various factors could cause actual results to differ from these forward-looking statements including
the potential for the industry’s projects to experience technical or mechanical problems or changes in financial decisions,
geological conditions in the reservoir may not result in a commercial level of oil and gas production, changes in product prices
and other risks not anticipated by the Company. Since forward-looking statements address future events and conditions, by
their very nature, they involve inherent risks and uncertainties.
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An Aside
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The view in 2002
2007 Actual
2002 Forecast
Deepwater Subsea Wells
250
Deepwater GoM Subsea Wells 02-07
Deepwater GoM Subsea Wells 02-07
Africa
Nos of SSC
200
Europe
Others
4%
North America
Others
3% 150
Independent
29%
Asia
Middle East & Caspian
100
Latin America
Australasia
50
Fully
Integrated Oil
Company
44%
Independent
52%
0
Fully
2002 Integrated
2004 Oil 2006
2008
Company
Year On-stream
68%
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2010
3
2012
©Infield Systems Ltd 2007
Contents
•
Market Overview
–
–
•
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energy data analysts
Deepwater
Subsea Market Trends
Conclusions & Observations
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Deep & Ultra Deepwater
Africa
Asia
Australasia
Europe
Latin America
Middle East & Caspian
North America
60
50
Fields Onstream
energy data analysts
40
30
20
10
0
1989
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
Deepwater has evolved from the technological frontier to being strategically important
Golden Triangle through to 2006
– North America (126), Africa (22), Latin America (21)
Key driver of growth in offshore activity
Activity in Africa and Asia will provide the primary impetus for the forecast growth.
– Nos of fields compared to shallow is low
– The scale of reserves and production of deepwater is outstanding
37% located in North America
32% Brazil
27% Africa
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Under Explored Areas Remain
energy data analysts
•
There are still a number of areas of high-prospectivity that are considerably under explored and have
potential for upside
•
These areas include some significant locations, including;
– Arctic
– Deep & ultra-deepwater Gulf of Guinea
– Ultra-deepwater Gulf of Mexico
– Deepwater South China Sea
– Indian Ocean Margins
•
A clear trend towards deeper waters and more remote locations
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Global Subsea Market
600
Africa
Europe
Asia
Latin America
energy data analysts
Australasia
Middle East & Caspian
Number of Subsea Wells
North America
500
400
300
200
100
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Year On-stream
•
•
•
•
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In terms of the forecast:
– Subsea wells are expected to push 500 brought on-stream per year by 2011
Major deepwater developments drive the growth
– Floating Production in West Africa, Brazil, GoM, Asia Pacific
Expanding geographical coverage
– To date subsea production facilities are used in 47 countries worldwide
– These will be joined by a further 12 through this forecast period
Within mature basins subsea plays an important role
– New production to existing fields
– Reservoir boosting through injection
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Global Subsea Market – Water Depth
•
energy data analysts
Water depths are increasing
– An Increase from 55% in 2007 to 67% in
600
2012 of wells are expected to be
completed in >500m
Ultra-Deepwater
Deep
Nos of Subsea Wells
500
– Maximum completions are expected at
approx 3000m
Shallow
400
300
200
100
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
•
Year On-stream
Ultra-deepwater frontier
– Nos of wells is expected to grow from
120
approx 20 in 2002 to over 100 in 2012
Nos of Subsea Wells
100
• Lower Tertiary Trend
• North Africa
• Brazil
>2500
>2000
>1500
80
60
40
20
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Year On-stream
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©Infield Systems Ltd 2007
Ultra Deepwater
•
Technical challenges increasing
–
–
–
•
energy data analysts
HPHT
Flow assurance
Transportation
Subsea is critical to deliver offshore future
production growth – worldwide
•
Increased use of “new” technologies:
–
–
–
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Subsea Separation
Boosting
HIPPS
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Observations & Conclusions
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
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energy data analysts
Despite anticipated strong level of new development activity there are potential issues to be
overcome if current feel good factor to be maintained
The supply chain to the offshore sector is operating very close to or at full capacity
Subsequent supply constraints creating significant cost inflation - limited fabrication, manpower,
equipment and material availability
This has seen major reassessment of project specifications and schedules
Deepwater projects either brought on-stream over the past five years or due on-stream imminently
shows a clear majority have experienced some form of delay to their initial forecast on-stream date
– High profile deepwater projects, such as Agbami, Akpo, Atlantis, Bonga, Erha and Thunder
Horse, catch the eye this trend has by no means been limited to deepwater areas
The need to order critical equipment early has become paramount
Oil companies face the need to keep discovery to production time as low as possible
– Developing long term relationships
• Frame Agreement, Long term charters...
– Considering the implication of their risk strategy
– Contractors do not have the capacity to tender for every job
– Operators can not simply select from a range of contractors on a low cost basis
– Looking at longer term picture – interested in the 15-20 year contracting environment
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energy data analysts
Thank You
Infield Systems Ltd: Booth 201
[email protected]
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©Infield Systems Ltd 2007